Thursday Night Football Week 7 Prop Bets Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) react to Jalen Hurts going down for the season, then a guest joins to break down their Thursday Night Football prop bets for Patriots at Bears. It ends with Corey Kiner to score twice at 150 to 1.
The 49ers Hand Back The Cover
Sean Green had the 49ers as a lock laying 7.5 against the Commanders, and San Francisco was up 23-3 before it let Washington back in the game. The Niners won 23-17. That is not a cover. Sean puts most of it on the Christian McCaffrey fumble, and Ryan Kramer had no mercy for Kyle Shanahan, the 28-3 guy, blowing a lead to Dan Quinn. The props were a lot friendlier. Both hosts cashed Purdy over his passing yards, Kramer hit the first touchdown and the George Kittle receiving yards, Sean had Kittle anytime, and Rachaad White got to three catches. Kramer’s alt Kittle number came up short at 69 yards, but Sean still closed the week 2-1 on the locks.
Jalen Hurts Is Done For The Season
Then came the bad news. Jalen Hurts is out for the season with blood clots, and Sean, as big a Hurts fan as you’ll find, wants to know what the Eagles medical staff knew and what they told him. A report that Hurts hadn’t slept for 36 hours got retracted, so the full story probably waits until after the season. Kramer would put the handling on GM Howie Roseman before owner Jeffrey Lurie, and he thinks Hurts would need a new medical staff to want to keep playing there if the reports hold up. Sean’s prediction is Hurts back next year with a new medical team. Sean is also mad that the team sent Nick Sirianni out to face the media alone when the coach had no update to give.
The Eagles have dropped four straight, something that hadn’t happened in the Nick Sirianni era, and Kramer says this is the most down on the team he’s seen Sean in 15 years. Sean pushes back hard on that, pointing to the end of the Doug Pederson era and the Chip Kelly years. The one bright spot is the division, because the NFC East has gone back-to-back weeks without a single win, a first since the merger. Kramer, whose Giants lost their quarterback four weeks ago, welcomed Sean to the ride and called it a tractor with no steering wheel heading down a steep hill. So a sub-.500 division winner is on the table.
Kirk Cousins, Tanner McKee And The Trade Talk
The guest joined from the Prop Cast with a joke that the biggest winners of the Hurts news are the Tyrod Taylor doctors, and then the talk turned to who plays quarterback in Philly. Andy Dalton went to the Falcons, and Sean is fine with that. He doesn’t see the Vikings moving Carson Wentz, because Minnesota is close to going to Wentz over Kyler and can’t risk it with Kyler’s injury history. That leaves Kirk Cousins as the one obvious upgrade over Tanner McKee in Sean’s mind. The Raiders are 3-3 with three straight losses and Mendoza waiting, and if someone offers a first-round pick for Cousins, the guest and Kramer both say the Raiders take it.
The guest’s bigger question was whether any of it matters. He threw out Tua, Case Keenum and Geno Smith on the Jets as examples, and asked whether this Eagles roster wins more than seven games with any of them. His answer was to ride it out with McKee because the team is too banged up. Sean doesn’t want to burn a pile of draft picks either, though the second-rounder from the Cam Jurgens trade gives the Eagles a little extra to work with. He also projects Barkley back this week, which should help the offense a lot. His bottom line is that a real trade probably isn’t realistic.
The Best Thursday Night Football Prop Bets For Patriots At Bears
Patriots at Bears starts with A.J. Brown, and all three bettors attack him differently. The guest likes Brown over 8.5 first-quarter receiving yards at -115, betting New England gets him the ball early after an ugly game against the Jets, with Dobbs on IR and the Bears allowing 159.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, 12th most in the league. Sean fades him on catches, under 5.5, and it’s worth laying -125 where you can find it. It’s a cold road game and Brown’s confidence looks rattled, so six catches feels like a stretch. Kramer goes with Brown’s longest catch over 24.5 yards. He’s coming off a 10-target, 27-yard game, but the Bears are terrible against deep balls to WR1s, and that’s the best of the three.
The New England backfield is where the value sits. The guest takes Rhamondre Stevenson under 7.5 first-half receiving yards at -115, a pure hit-rate play since Stevenson has stayed under that number in eight straight games and Chicago allows the seventh-fewest receiving yards to running backs. Sean, meanwhile, rides Corey Kiner anytime touchdown at 12-1. Kiner led the Pats in rushing last week, had five red zone carries and returns kicks, so 12-1 is a great price. Kramer adds that Henderson is dealing with a high ankle sprain on a short week, which only opens more work for Kiner. His own play stays in the passing game with Demario Douglas 40-plus receiving yards at +154, because Douglas has hit big catches in back-to-back weeks.
On the Chicago side, the guest fades Loveland’s longest catch under 18.5 at -111. Loveland hasn’t had a catch of 19-plus yards all season, and the Patriots have allowed just two receptions over 12 yards to tight ends. Sean pivots off that with Cole Kmet over 1.5 catches at +175, an easy checkdown for Caleb Williams who has two-catch games in two of the last three. Then Kramer goes to D’Andre Swift, either four receptions at +160 or 25-plus receiving yards at +132, and he might play both. He expects the Patriots to force a lot of checkdowns, and that profile fits Swift.
The Underdog Entry And First Touchdown Cards
The Underdog pick ’em entry is three legs: D’Andre Swift higher than 2.5 receptions, Cole Kmet higher than 1.5 receptions and A.J. Brown higher than 9.5 first-quarter receiving yards. The guest’s take on Brown sums it up, since Brown can fumble three times as long as he catches one pass in the first quarter. In the first touchdown market the guest has Roschon Johnson at 14-1, Hunter Henry at 17-1, Kalif Raymond at 22-1 and Kiner at 100-1. Sean also grabs Kiner at 100-1 and adds Eli Raridon and Cole Kmet at 30-1 plus Caleb Williams at 20-1. Kramer goes backs and quarterbacks with Kiner, Drake Maye at 20-1, Caleb and Roschon at 14-1, with no tight ends, which he calls pretty rare for him.
Then comes the degen corner. Both Sean and the guest are on Kiner to score two touchdowns, and the guest shopped it up to 150-1. Sean can’t figure out why the number went up after Kiner was 80-1 last week, when he then got real work and now faces a Bears defense that’s arguably worse against running backs. Kramer goes reverse correlation with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye both scoring touchdowns while both stay under their rushing yards, Caleb under 20.5 and Maye under 29.5. The whole thing pays 102-1, which is a lot of money for two quarterbacks finding the end zone without running wild.
Embiid At Home And The Philly Under
The guest also has the NBA tipping off tomorrow, and Kramer, wearing a Knicks sweatshirt as a defending champion, is mostly curious to watch Philadelphia root for LeBron on the Sixers. Sean’s idea is that Embiid should only play home games, since he isn’t going to play 82 anyway. The guest puts Embiid at about 52 games, Kramer would take the under on that, and the guest is also on the under for Philly’s regular-season win total. If Embiid is only getting 41 games, Sean would just make them all home games.
Watch: TNF QB Props – Broncos vs Seahawks
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:46 49ers Blow It Against Commanders
7:09 Jalen Hurts Out for the Season
16:10 The Guest on Kirk Cousins and Tanner McKee
27:07 A.J. Brown First Quarter Receiving Yards
28:26 Fade A.J. Brown Catches
29:39 A.J. Brown Longest Catch
30:57 Rhamondre Stevenson First Half Receiving Yards Under
31:55 Corey Kiner Anytime Touchdown
33:36 Demario Douglas 40 Receiving Yards
35:16 Loveland Longest Catch Under
36:25 Cole Kmet To Get Two Catches
37:15 D’Andre Swift Receptions and Receiving Yards
38:48 Underdog Pick ‘Em Entry
41:24 First Touchdown Picks
44:39 Kiner Two Touchdowns Degen Play
46:14 Caleb Williams and Drake Maye Both Score
47:48 NBA Talk: Embiid and LeBron’s Sixers
52:14 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
