Week 5 of the NFL is lining up to be an exciting one. There are a lot of close spreads, coupled with a lot of injuries, coupled with a lot of question marks. Our goal in this article is simple: let’s find the opening script for these teams and see who can cover the first-half spreads. Last week, we were a Buffalo Bills hook (had -3.5; they were up by 3) away from a clean sweep and hitting a 12/1 parlay. Nonetheless, three of four was a good day. Let’s run it back with these NFL first-half best bets for Week 5.
Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 (+100)
Jacksonville is a smash spot for me this weekend as they kick off a bright and early Sunday morning from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. The Jaguars have started the season 4-0 in the first half. They’ve gotten off to some killer starts to games, and they are a team that’s firing on all cylinders. They have a massive advantage across the pond; it’s a trip this team makes every year, they have back-to-back games there, and they can get settled in.
Philadelphia is a mess right now. Things just haven’t gone their way this year. They have been a quick starting team, going 3-1 ATS in the first half, but I’m okay fading that this week. Jet lag, disappointment, an overhaul of their offensive line, injuries that abound at skill positions, and all across the board. Jacksonville is on fire in a good way; Philadelphia is on fire in a bad one.
Houston Texans -3.5 (-115)
The Houston Texans come into this game with a record of 0-4, and they’ve gone just 1-3 ATS in the first half through four games. However, that’s all come against good teams, likely all playoff teams. Now, they get arguably the worst team in the league, with arguably the worst quarterback in the league. Houston’s defense has struggled out of the gate, but again, it’s all been really strong offenses. Now, they get to face Cam Ward, and I believe they’ll feast on him in this game, early and often.
Tennessee isn’t better ATS in the first half; they are one of only four teams in the entire NFL who have started 0-4 ATS in the first half of games. They’ve come back through some back doors like last week against the Ravens to cover the game spread, but we don’t have to worry about that here. Recent history in this division matchup, even at the Titans stadium, all favors the Texans.
Vikings/Saints Under 20.5 Points (-107)
Last week we hit a first half over on Sunday Night Football with the Lions and Panthers. This week we’re going to go the other direction with the Vikings and Saints. Minnesota has thrived this season on a strong defense and keeping the games lower-scoring to start the year 4-0. Their games have gone 2-2 on the under in the first half. Twice this year, the total in their games at the half was nine points scored between both teams.
New Orleans has been a slow-starting team this year as well, even though they’ve poured on points in the second half. Monday Night Atlanta embarrassed them, but New Orleans only managed seven points. Two of their games have also gone under this number, with only seven points being scored in the Lions game. Minnesota will control the pace of this game and keep it slowed down on the road.
New England Patriots -2.5 (-112)
The Las Vegas Raiders had only three wins last year, and one of them came against this New England team that eventually went on to win the AFC and appear in the Super Bowl. Normally, after a win as they had over the Bills last week, I’d say this first half could be a letdown spot for New England. But the offensive coordinator they lost to in that Super Bowl, Klint Kubiak, is now the Raiders’ head coach. New England has had this one circled, and after a huge win last week, with the second easiest remaining schedule, it’s time for the Patriots to turn back into last year’s team.
Both teams have been good ATS in the first half. Las Vegas is 4-0, while New England is 3-1. I’ll take the revenge angle along with home field advantage and a Patriots team that looked much improved last week.
First Half Parlay: Jaguars + Texans + Vikings/Saints Under + Patriots Parlay (+1269)
