NFL Week 5 Survivor & Contest Bombs! Recap
The Man in the Box and Luke the Young Sharp break down NFL Week 5 survivor picks, landing on the 0-4 Houston Texans. Plus five Circa Millions plays and three Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prop ladders for Thursday Night Football.
Laddie Daddy Ladders For Cowboys Vs. Bucs
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) opens Week 5 with a little penance. The Monday card went 2-1, with the Falcons blowing out the Saints and the Drake London over cashing. But the Kendre Miller ladder bricked after he fumbled his first carry, and CJ owns it. He admits he forced that one. So the promise for Thursday night is better ladders, and he swears none of these were forced.
Dallas hosts Tampa Bay at 9.5 with a total of 48.5, and the Bucs sit at +390 on the moneyline. The number dropped to 7.5 before climbing back, so this is a pro-versus-Joe game with the public on Dallas and the sharps on Tampa. CJ thinks the spread is too high. But he won’t take the points, because rookie Jalon Daniels on a short week is a tough ask. Instead he goes after a Cowboys defense ranked 31st in EPA. Also, nothing has changed under the new coordinator, and the middle of the field is wide open.
First up is the Cade Otton receiving yards ladder. The Cowboys give up 16 fantasy points a game to tight ends, and they get destroyed underneath in the 10-to-15-yard range. Otton also has a 20% target share. He runs more routes than every tight end in the league except three. So the ladder starts at 25 yards and climbs to 40 (+173), 50 (+305), 70 (+860) and 80 (+1380). CJ believes Otton gets at least 60. Then he stops short of the 100-yard rung at 30-to-1, because even a ladder guy has limits.
DeeJay Dallas side is a Javonte Williams receptions ladder, and CJ loves this one. Tampa Bay allows the third-most receptions to running backs. Meanwhile Williams is on pace for 63.8 catches, which would be a career best. He’s averaging only about four yards a grab, so the yardage market gets ignored. Three catches at -115 is the boom unit play. Then the ladder runs to four at +211, five at +489, six at +1060 and seven at +2100. That top rung is 21-to-1, the highest the book allows.
The step ladder is an anytime touchdown for Sean Tucker, and this is not a first touchdown call. Dallas allows the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs. Also, Tucker is now the Bucs’ goal-line back. He had only three carries last week, but they came in the red zone and he found the end zone. Bucky Irving keeps getting pulled near the stripe, and Gainwell just isn’t a factor. So it’s Tucker anytime at +370, plus two touchdowns at 40-to-1 for the dreamers.
The NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks Land On Houston
Luke the Young Sharp comes back on after another sweaty week. The pick survived an ugly Vikings game, and a Chris Bell touchdown got wiped out when his toe stepped out of bounds. That broke their way, and CJ spent it at a birthday party refreshing the scoreboard instead of watching. Now fewer than 7,000 entries remain, about 25% of the field. So the choices only get harder from here. Also, the board this week has three big favorites: Dallas at home tonight, Houston at Tennessee and the Bengals in Miami.
The Bengals go first. Luke thinks Miami is scrappier than people believe, and Higgins and Chase being banged up is a real problem. CJ agrees, noting the Dolphins played Kansas City tough in their only home game. Then Dallas gets a long look, because Luke has no faith in Jalon Daniels and calls him a turnover machine. But the Thursday spot nags at both of them. Also, the Cowboys defense is bad enough that Tampa could keep it close if Bane and Trotter get to Dak. Luke floats the Saints or Commanders as ugly options. But Kevin O’Connell is 12-1 straight up as a road favorite of three or less.
In the end Luke leans Texans, and CJ signs off. Houston is 0-4, but Luke calls it a much better roster and a must-win spot. DeMeco Ryans is now calling the defensive plays against Cam Ward. Also, Nico Collins is back, and CJ says nobody on the other side can guard him. So the survivor pick is the Houston Texans on the road at Tennessee. Then CJ gets to root for Tampa Bay tonight with a clear conscience. As he puts it, they are riding the greatest 0-4 team in NFL history.
Five Circa Millions Plays For A New Quarter
Last week went 1-3-1 on the Circa Millions card, though CJ insists all three losses were directionally correct. Week 5 starts a new quarter, so everybody is back at 0-0. First, he scratches the Chargers as a home dog at +3.5. Joe Alt and Slater are out, and four rookies would start on that line. He also passes on Tennessee +7.5, because it would cross beams with the Houston survivor pick. So the card goes elsewhere, and it starts with the dullest game of the week.
Pittsburgh -2.5 against the Colts might be his favorite play. It’s two middle-of-the-road teams, but the spot is great. The Steelers have 10 days of rest since losing at Cleveland on a Thursday. Meanwhile the Colts are coming back from Europe with no bye, and CJ cites teams going 40% against the spread in that spot. He also expects the Pittsburgh defense to give Daniel Jones problems. Next up is the Jets at -1.5 against the 3-1 Browns. CJ trusts Geno Smith at home over Deshaun Watson, who rarely throws past five yards. Also, Cleveland can’t run the ball, and he doesn’t believe the Browns go 4-1.
Arizona +5.5 against Detroit is the dog. The Lions defense is the worst in the league by far, giving up 330 passing yards a game. Dan Campbell even admitted he doesn’t have the players to fix it. Detroit’s two wins came at home against the Jets and Saints, and neither was comfortable. So laying 5.5 on the road with that defense makes no sense to CJ. Jacoby Brissett threw three interceptions against the Giants last week. But Arizona has been feisty at home, and the back door is always open.
New England -3.5 against the Raiders is the other favorite. Kirk Cousins has played well, but CJ points out he hasn’t really played an outdoor road game yet. Drake Maye got the game he needed in the win at Buffalo. Also, this is a revenge spot from last year’s opener, so CJ expects the Patriots to win by at least a touchdown. Finally, he takes Baltimore +3.5 at Atlanta on Sunday night. The Ravens were 6.5-point road favorites a week and a half ago, before Lamar Jackson got hurt. That swing is too much. Hundley gets a full week of practice, and Derrick Henry should get plenty of work.
Man In The Box: Lane Johnson And Mason Miller
The Man in the Box segment starts with Eagles-Jaguars in London, where the line jumped from 2.5 to 7.5 without a quarterback injury. Lane Johnson retired, and Saquon and Tank Bigsby are both out. Then the talk turns to Stephen A. Smith, who did a bit about Johnson’s retirement that came off as insensitive. His first apology blamed the audience, and a real one followed later. CJ’s take is that ESPN creates a story and then covers it. Also, he calls Johnson one of the greatest right tackles of the last 25 years, and says he can retire whenever he wants.
Then CJ goes after the Padres. He had money on San Diego and tweeted, half joking, that everyone can stop pretending Blink-182 is great. Closer Mason Miller wasn’t available for game three because of paternity leave, so King threw two innings of relief two days after starting. CJ’s fix is simple. Bring the delivery to the ballpark, put her in a suite and let Miller close out the ninth. Meanwhile he plugs a Friday show at the Lyric Theater at 7:30 with Travis Irvine. He’s also in Chicago October 16 through 18 at the Hamburg Club. And the last word matches the survivor card: let’s go, Houston.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:44 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
6:23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Picks
17:25 Survivor Pick With Luke The Young Sharp
32:53 Circa Millions Contest Plays
36:44 Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Picks
40:55 Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets Picks
44:10 Detroit vs. Arizona Picks
47:30 Las Vegas vs. New England Patriots Picks
50:14 Baltimore vs. Atlanta Picks
54:51 Man in the Box: Lane Johnson & Stephen A. Smith
1:01:35 Blink-182, Padres & Mason Miller
1:06:31 Sign-Off & Socials
