After taking a quick detour to Salt Lake City, the UFC is back inside its home inside the Meta Apex. UFC Vegas 122 features Brendan Allen looking to turn away Christian Leroy Duncan in his first UFC main event. There are tons of bangers on this card and it’s sure to have the crowd on its feet.
In today’s column, we’re looking for the best play on the entire slate of prelim fights for you to exploit. Come check out our best bet for these UFC Vegas 122 prelims.
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Prelim Pick of the Week: UFC Vegas 122
UFC Flyweight Fight: Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
Start Time: Saturday (10/10) 5:00pm EST (Paramount+)
Although women’s underdogs are hitting at a historically low rate this year, I still like one on Saturday. A lot of misconception surrounding styles is baked into this line. When that happens, it’s time for us to exploit it.
A lot of people see the kickboxer Kareckaite and assume that she cannot wrestle. While the defensive wrestling is not exactly elite, it did hold up really well against Dione Barbosa. She stuffed nine out of the 11 takedowns that were shot in that fight and she spent under four minutes in her opponents control. Gatto shares Barbosa as a common opponent and struggled with the grappling much more. She gave up three takedowns and over six minutes of control time.
When you erase that as a deficit for Kareckaite, we see her with only a big striking advantage. If we can get that and a plus-EV line, then it is time to bite.
UFC Vegas 122 Prelim Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite ML (+110)
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