If you followed last week’s plays, you were solidly in profit. The Week Three NFL betting analysis led to a 5-2 overall record. The only misses were on a pair of team totals that were live but didn’t get home. We have another week of data and have been able to refine models even further. It’s also a bit more obvious which teams we need to follow and which teams we need to fade. NFL betting trends and analysis for Week Four are just below the banner.
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How should I bet on the NFL this weekend? Week 4 Analytics & Trends
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo gets an AFC East matchup with New England for Week 4. These two teams are clearly headed in different directions. New England has looked like a mess in the first three weeks of the season, and they’ll be without top defensive back Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore. The Bills have the best scoring offense in the league and have home-field advantage. They get a banged-up Patriots defense and a Patriots offense that can’t score. The line is beefy for a game in-division, but given the explosive nature of the Bills offense, the injuries the Patriots have on defense, and a New England offense that’s second to last in scoring, the side is obvious.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is coming off a game in which he threw three interceptions. Allen will look to limit mistakes, but there should also be opportunities for Allen to get outside the pocket and move against a New England defense that can rush the passer. Allen has only had one game over his rushing yards total this year, but he ran for 53 and 48 yards in two games against the Patriots last year. He should find room to run, and his rushing yards should be an easy over.
Best Bet: Buffalo -7, Josh Allen Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota draws an 0-3 Miami Dolphins team in Week 4. The Dolphins have allowed at least 24 points in all three of their games so far this year. The Vikings have gone under 23.5 points in two of their three games played, but went over against a poor Green Bay defense in Minneapolis in Week One. Minnesota gets Miami coming to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Vikings will be without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, but this Miami defense is prone to giving up points. There’s also a non-zero chance that the Vikings get a defensive or special teams touchdown to help them get over their total.
Also, the Dolphins have been especially vulnerable to Tight Ends in their first three games. Michael Mayer hauled in six catches for 32 yards in Week One. George Kittle grabbed four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week Two. Travis Kelce caught two passes for 59 yards and a touchdown in Week Three. Vikings tight end should be a key focus of the Minnesota passing attack this Sunday, and he should keep the touchdown streak going. Let’s lock up Hockenson to grab an anytime touchdown and sprinkle the first touchdown.
Best Bets: Vikings Team Total Over 23.5, TJ Hockenson ATD
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions enter Week Four with one of the league’s worst passing defenses. Detroit has allowed over 300 passing yards per game. That’s dead last in the NFL. Tyler Shough and Geno Smith have roasted them. They do have a capable pass rush, but if teams are able to get the ball out, it could go a long way. The Lions have allowed 16 completions of 20 yards or more and four completions of 40 yards or more.
The Carolina Panthers make the trip to Detroit this weekend. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has been quietly putting together a solid season. Young has averaged 313 passing yards per game and has already thrown for seven touchdowns. He’s also 18th in the league in EPA per dropback at +0.162. Young should eat against a soft Lions pass defense, and the Panthers should rack up points. His passing yards have clear ladder potential.
Best Bets: Bryce Young Over 241.5 passing yards, Panthers Over 22.5 Points
Dallas Cowboys
Since we’ve mentioned bad defenses, the Dallas Cowboys have to be next in the fade column. Dallas heads to Houston for a matchup with the Texans. The Texans are 0-3 heading into Week Four. 0-3 teams playing a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005. This trend is 13-3 since 2020. The play on the point spread should be obvious.
Houston is desperate, and they’ve shown they can pile up yards. Dallas is still really poor at defending the run, and the Texans have a pair of backs that should eat. The Cowboys have allowed opponents to average 179.7 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per attempt. Why would the Texans throw at all if they can rack up nearly six yards per attempt? Both backs should get fed and generate yards.
Best Bet: Houston -3, Woody Marks Over 33.5 Rushing Yards, David Montgomery Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
The Sports Gambling Podcast
For more analysis of every NFL game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean “Stackin’ The Money” Green and Ryan “Real Money” Kramer talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline NFL picks every week!
