NFL Prop Bets Week 4 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) bring in CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) from the Bottom Line Bombs podcast for NFL prop bets in Week 4. The guys lean hard into unders, with Ryan fading Derrick Henry at 98.5 rushing yards and CJ climbing a Kenneth Gainwell ladder.
Quarterback Legs Kick Off The NFL Prop Bets Week 4 Card
The props show comes in hot. CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) cashed the Trey Harris ladder at +780 on the over 70 yards rung, and Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) hit Geno Smith over 300 passing yards. So the format stays put: five props apiece, a ladder each, an Underdog entry and a Degen-only parlay to close. Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) opens with Patrick Mahomes over 15.5 rushing yards against the Raiders, and the case starts with pressure.
Las Vegas has been shockingly good getting after the quarterback this year. Meanwhile the Chiefs’ left tackle has missed as many games as started with a bulging disc. That pushes Mahomes into scramble mode. The history backs it up too, because Mahomes has averaged 20 rushing yards a game against the Raiders, and the knee-brace scare from camp turned out to be nothing. Fifteen and a half is a low bar for a quarterback who has to run to survive.
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) stays in the quarterback rushing lane with C.J. Stroud over 11.5 rushing yards. Houston is 0-3, at home and desperate. The Cowboys also lead the league in quarterback rushing allowed. Some of that is who Dallas has seen, with Lamar Jackson, Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels all posting big games, but the situation is the selling point. Stroud has been taking off anyway: 2 carries for 10 last game, 3 for 29 before that and 2 for 15 in the opener against the Bills. With the season slipping away, 11.5 is very gettable.
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) puts a button on the theme with the Bucs’ rookie starter, Jalon Daniels, in a first NFL start against the Packers. The rushing yards line of 38.5 looked a little rich. So the play is attempts over 6.5. Daniels is an undrafted free agent and a very willing runner, and in four snaps of relief when Baker Mayfield got hurt, Daniels took off on two of them. Rookies in a first start tend to trust their legs. Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) also grabbed Daniels in the anytime touchdown market at +420 as a bonus play.
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) also likes Ted Hurst over 19.5 receiving yards on Underdog, with most books hanging 22.5. Hurst and Daniels came in as part of the same rookie class. Jalen McMillan is out, and the Packers’ secondary has real issues. Most of the Hurst camp highlights came on throws from someone other than Baker, and even this season the targets have been high leverage, including a 40-yard touchdown chance in the rain against Cleveland that got dropped. With a longest-reception line of 12.5, one catch nearly gets you there. The guys call it a smash spot.
The Unders Pile Up In The Backfield
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) opened last week with a Rhamondre Stevenson under that cashed. This week the move is Tony Pollard under 45.5 rushing yards. The Titans offense sits 23rd in EPA at minus 0.07. Pollard plays only 53% of the snaps in a split backfield and does nothing in the passing game, so every yard has to come on the ground. Tennessee is also a huge road dog against Baltimore, which means the run game gets abandoned early. The projection here is 20 to 30 yards, well short of the line.
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) follows with Chase Brown under 64.5 rushing yards against Jacksonville. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. The defense as a whole is underrated. Brown has cleared this number only once in three games, and 64.5 is simply too high for a matchup this tough. The Jags have the front to keep the Cincinnati ground game in check all afternoon, so take the under.
Then Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) goes right at the biggest number on the board: Derrick Henry under 98.5 rushing yards against the Titans. Since 2025, running backs with opening lines of 90 or more have gone over just two times in 14 tries, per Connor Allen. Both were Jonathan Taylor. Henry ran for 23 yards on a 94.5 line against Cleveland in Week 2 last year, with Baltimore laying 12.5 and leading the whole way, and 60 yards in Week 13. The Ravens are also down their starting and backup center, sliding a rookie first-round guard over, and Jeffery Simmons waits on the other side. Add a missed Wednesday practice for Lamar with a back issue. Robert Saleh will make Lamar win through the air.
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) stays down there with J.K. Dobbins under 59.5 rushing yards. Dobbins got 17 carries last week and turned them into 49 yards, 2.9 a pop. The Denver run game has looked flat despite a great offensive line. The 49ers figure to play from ahead, and Dobbins offers no threat in the passing game. Denver also looks ready to work other backs in more. Dobbins isn’t passing the eye test, and 59.5 asks for too much.
Tight Ends, Geno And The London Game
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) fades Colston Loveland under 33.5 receiving yards. Even in what looked like a breakout game last week, Loveland caught four balls for only 31 yards. The Jets are good against tight ends, and this version of the Bears offense wants to run. With either Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum at quarterback, there’s little reason to expect a bigger role. Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) thinks Ben Johnson is hiding wrinkles for the tight ends. But this week the number still looks too high.
Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) stays in that game on the other side with Geno Smith over 226.5 passing yards. Geno missed the number in Week 1, then threw for 247 and 321, the latter on 37 attempts. Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq both look good. The Bears have only been tested by Vikings and Eagles offenses that look broken, so the line feels depressed. Frank Reich has the Jets throwing with confidence into tight windows, and CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) even likes the Jets outright.
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) heads to Tottenham for Colts and Commanders and takes Keenan Allen over 35.5 receiving yards. Washington is allowing 280 passing yards a game, 11 passing touchdowns and a 124 quarterback rating. Without Pierce, Indianapolis has worked the middle of the field more. Allen caught six balls for 63 yards and a touchdown last week on a 25% target share, plus a 40% red zone share. Both defenses are bad and both secondaries are worse. The Colts should move it at will, on a synthetic field built for American football.
The same game gives Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) Tyler Warren under 18.5 longest reception. Warren’s longs this year are 15, 8 and 9. The average depth of target is 1.7, built on screens and designed touches from a Daniel Jones offense that wants the ball out quick. Washington hasn’t allowed explosive plays to tight ends outside of one long Dallas Goedert catch from a wide alignment. Former safety Sonny Styles could also see a lot of Warren in coverage.
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) keeps fading Cincinnati against tight ends with Brenton Strange over 33.5 receiving yards. The Bengals have given up the most receiving yards to the position. Slot corner Jaylen Davis is hurt, Daxton Hill moved to cornerback and the safeties are banged up. Liam Coen loves attacking the middle of the field. CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) had Strange on the sheet too, pointing to 77% and 83% snap rates over the last two games. At 33.5, the line is way too low.
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) closes out with Mack Hollins over 44.5 receiving yards. Hollins had six catches for 87 yards on nine targets last week with a 76% snap rate and 26 routes, season highs in both. Drake Maye is locking onto the big target in a receiver room with little else. Buffalo allows the fifth-most passing yards in the league. An average depth of target of 13.1 also means one or two catches do the heavy lifting, so take the yards over the 3.5 receptions.
Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) sneaks into Sunday night for the last prop, Tommy Tremble over 12.5 receiving yards against Detroit. Tremble posted 25 yards in Week 1 and four against the Falcons in a game that got out of hand. Then came three catches for 41 yards on four targets against Cleveland. The Lions are the best tight end matchup on the board. Every tight end who has caught a pass against them this season has scored, including Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant, Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Kenyon Sadiq and Jeremy Ruckert. Tremble is also +550 anytime.
The Underdog Entry
Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) starts the Underdog entry with Christian McCaffrey higher than 65.5 rushing yards. A number in the 60s for McCaffrey is rare. Denver let Kenneth Walker run 23 times for 173 yards in Week 1, and Kyren Williams posted 88 yards on 15 carries, so volume isn’t even required. CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) pushes a target prop, and the guys land on Kalif Raymond higher than 5.5 targets. The market still hasn’t caught up to Raymond as the top receiver in the Ben Johnson system; the yards line started around 14 and only now sits at 31.5. Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) likes the matchup for Dalton Schultz in a revenge game against the Cowboys, after a 140-yard outing against the Bengals. That leg becomes higher than 16.5 longest reception. With the boost, the entry pays an 8.82 multiplier.
Ladders And The Degen-Only Parlays
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) climbs the Kenneth Gainwell receiving yards ladder in that Bucs and Packers game. Bucky Irving is on a confirmed pitch count of 15 to 17 touches and was benched for an entire fourth quarter. Tampa also paid Gainwell $14 million and hasn’t used Gainwell yet. A rookie quarterback under pressure means dump-offs. The rungs: 25 yards at +333, 40 yards at 10-1, 50 yards at +1680 and 70 yards at 40-1. Gainwell can turn a couple of screens into all of it.
Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) goes to the receptions ladder for Antonio Williams against a Colts defense that keeps getting beat over the middle. Xavier Hutchinson caught five balls in that area last week, and Jakobi Meyers caught six the week before. Williams also posted eye-popping separation numbers back in Week 1. The ladder starts at 3+ catches at +180, then 4+ at +410 and 5+ at +900, with 12-1 available on the top rung if you shop. The risk is Stefon Diggs eating everything, but the bet is that the work spreads out.
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) goes premium ladder shopping with Michael Wilson receiving yards against a Giants secondary that already gave up 195 to Davante Adams. The base number sits in the 50s. The ladder runs 100 yards at +534, 110 at +780 and 120 at +1160, topping out at 130 yards. Wilson had two 140-yard games last year, and Jacoby Brissett keeps firing. The outside receivers are also the weak spot in this Giants defense, so the upside is real.
For the Degen-only plays, CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) wants Bo Nix, Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes to each throw two interceptions at 181-1, and Hail Marys count. Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) pairs tight ends in the first touchdown market: Tyler Warren in London around 10-1, then Darren Waller on Sunday night, a 219-1 sweat that lasts all day. Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) closes at 115-1 with Jalon Daniels, Tyson Bagent and Trevor Lawrence all scoring a rushing touchdown. Lawrence owes everyone one after taking a knee at the one.
Watch: Cincinnati vs Arizona Prediction, Picks & Best Bets | College Football Week 5
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:48 Welcome to the Sports Gambling Podcast
6:27 Patrick Mahomes Over Rushing Yards
8:46 C.J. Stroud Over Rushing Yards
9:49 Jalon Daniels Over Rushing Attempts
12:12 Ted Hurst Receiving Yards
14:57 Tony Pollard Under Rushing Yards
16:22 Chase Brown Under Rushing Yards
18:44 Derrick Henry Under Rushing Yards
22:37 J.K. Dobbins Under Rushing Yards
26:24 Fading Colston Loveland Receiving Yards
29:07 Geno Smith Over Passing Yards
31:55 Keenan Allen Over 35 And A Half Yards
35:00 Brenton Strange Over Receiving Yards
38:09 Tyler Warren Under Longest Reception
40:27 Matt Collins Over 44 And A Half Yards
42:28 Tommy Tremble Receiving Yards
45:25 Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards
47:02 Kalif Raymond Targets
48:24 Dalton Schultz Longest Reception
51:30 Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Ladder
54:31 Antonio Williams Receptions Ladder
57:16 Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Ladder
58:51 Degen Parlay
1:04:23 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
