We are so back. College Football has been delivering thrilling results already, and now we get to add in the NFL. It starts with a little Wednesday Night Football action in a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle. Thursday brings the first international game of the year, and Week 1 is loaded with great matchups. Each week we’ll take a look at the survivor pool and which teams are best to target as we enjoy our weekly sweat NFL survivor style. Let’s make our first NFL survivor picks for Week 1.
NFL survivor pool strategy is always tricky. There’s always that one big, popular game that trips up half of the pool and sends everyone packing in the early weeks. In my opinion, it’s best not to listen to the noise. Be different where you can, but remain smart. Look ahead and plan the weeks in front of you, but don’t let it run you off course before you get to that future. Some weeks, the chalk will be the play; some weeks it won’t. If a matchup is making you second-guess, trust your gut! Ideally, the things to try to avoid are road teams, international games, and divisional matchups. But this won’t always be possible. Don’t back yourself into a corner where you can’t take the best play for you any given week off of a rule like that.
The Lock: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars host the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Jacksonville is coming off a stellar 13-4 effort in 2025. It’s year two of Liam Cohen. Trevor Lawrence finally looks like the quarterback we were once promised he would be. It’s the second biggest spread on the weekend, which will set us apart from the “majority” chalk play. Which I love if it’s an option.
The Cleveland Browns are an easy fade, especially in Week 1. Deshaun Watson will be starting his first game since 2024. There is a new head coach, a 60-year-old Todd Monken who is just now finally getting his first shot to be a head coach in the pros. Myles Garrett is gone, and the humidity of Florida adds an extra layer of home-field advantage for the Jaguars early in the season.
The Backup Plan: Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers will be the most popular pick in survivor for the 2026 Week 1 NFL season. They are that way for good reason, though. It’s the biggest spread in the league, with the Chargers as 9.5-point favorites. It’s clearly the best pick on the board, if you just look at Week 1. The Chargers are a team that can be trusted early in the season. Often they have injuries and whatnot later on, but they are healthy and ready to rock for Week 1. Jim Harbaugh is a great coach; Justin Herbert is a great quarterback. The Chargers have won in Week 1 in six of the last seven seasons, including over a fully healthy Kansas City Chiefs team last year.
The reason I’m not using them as my top pick is I’m looking ahead to them hosting the Jets down the road. There’s not another spot I love for the Jacksonville Jaguars, so we’ll save Los Angeles for now. On the other side of the ball, it’s a rookie head coach in Mike LeFleur, who has to make his debut on the road against Jim Harbaugh. The Cardinals have a solid offense with a lot of playmakers, but their defense is atrocious. As the season goes on, this team might be better, but not in this game.
The Degen Special: Philadelphia Eagles
Like to be different and go against the grain? May I offer the Philadelphia Eagles? They host the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field. That does break the division game “rule” we set earlier, but as the third option, we can let that go. The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the better franchises in the league over recent years. They are also elite in Week 1. Philadelphia has a 9-1 record in Week 1 over the last 10 years, and 13-2 over the last 15. 2020, the “Covid year,” was the only time in the last 10 seasons they’ve lost in Week 1. Nick Sirianni runs a tight ship, and the team will show up.
On the other side, I had some hope for the Washington Commanders this season. But the more that comes out of that camp, the more they seem like a potential dumpster fire. Their offensive line has reportedly been terrible through camp. The quarterback is more concerned with who might be wearing a number he supposedly suddenly owns rather than football. It’s a team that could be really bad. Philadelphia has pretty well had the Commanders’ number, going 7-3 against them in the last five head-to-heads.
Official Week 1 NFL Survivor Play: Jacksonville Jaguars
