NFL Picks Preseason Week 3 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) close out the exhibition slate with their NFL Preseason Week 3 Picks, running through all 16 matchups one game at a time. They dig into the joint-practice unders that have quietly carried the card, sort out which starters actually suit up in the final tune-up, and set their favorite plays before the real season. Kramer rides a round robin of favorites while Sean stacks dog moneylines.
This is the last time the guys pick real NFL games until Week 1, so the season-long angles get one more spin. Their joint-practice unders sit at eight and eight with five matchups left, which means those totals carry real weight down the stretch. Week 2 graded out rough, though the moneyline dogs kept the card afloat. The read this week is a clear favorites lean, since Week 3 of the three-game preseason has historically been kind to the chalk. There is also money in fading teams that just hung a blowout.
Thursday’s four-game slate kicks it off. Buffalo lays 2.5 on Pittsburgh, and the Steelers look live off a 17-0 shutout with Drew Allar getting the reps at quarterback. San Francisco, meanwhile, is punting the whole exhibition and flying to Australia the following week. So the guys grabbed the Niners plus 3.5, figuring their backups still clear the Vegas backups. Los Angeles gives them another lean, with the Chargers laying 3.5 in the building they share with the Rams.
NFL Preseason Week 3 Picks: The Handshake Games
Half the board comes down to who actually plays. A couple of coaches walked out to midfield and agreed to sit their starters, which reshapes the whole read. So Cleveland catches New England at plus 2.5, with Tommy DeVito running the Patriots and Dillon Gabriel handling most of the Browns snaps. CJ Stroud is parked for Houston too, yet the guys still laid the 1.5 with the Texans after they reportedly whipped Carolina in joint practice. Those shared sessions also feed the totals, so they stacked Washington-Baltimore, Houston-Carolina, and Tampa-Jacksonville all on the under.
The quarterback carousel drives the rest of the card. Denver earned the bounce-back nod, since a 20-point home loss left Sean Payton genuinely furious and pointing his team toward a response. The Giants lay 3 over a Jets squad fresh off its own 17-0 shutout, with Jameis Winston slinging it and Jaxson Dart also in the mix. They faded Liam Cohen and grabbed Tampa at minus 2.5, because Jake Browning has the Bucs backups looking sharp. New Orleans plus 2.5 fit the get-right angle too, since the Saints just got shut out 34-0 and now collect a couple of points.
The Locks And The Chalk
The close leaned hard on the favorites. Kramer stacked a round robin of the Chargers, Broncos, and Ravens, all laying 3.5, and tagged his Chargers minus 3.5 as the Thursday night lock. Justin Herbert should get a few series in that shared-building spot, which gives the play some juice. Baltimore is the cleanest leg of the three, because the Ravens have allowed just 10 points across two games. Jayden Daniels even stood at the podium admitting Washington was nowhere near ready, so the guys happily backed the Ravens against them.
Sean went the other direction for value on his own card. He rolled a round robin of Cleveland, Kansas City, and New Orleans on the moneyline, chasing the bigger payouts. Both guys also landed on the Chiefs as a home dog, a spot they liked against a shaky visiting quarterback room. After a full year of dogs cashing at a 23-9 clip, Kramer figures the chalk is finally due to catch up. So the favorites lean is the through-line here, with a few live dogs sprinkled in for Week 3.
| Game | Line | Ryan | Sean |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ BUF | BUF -2.5 / o35.5 | BUF -2.5 | PIT +2.5 |
| NE @ CLE | NE -2.5 / o34.5 | CLE +2.5 | CLE +2.5 |
| SF @ LV | LV -3.5 / o37.5 | SF +3.5 | LV -3.5 |
| LAR @ LAC | LAC -3.5 / o38.5 | LAC -3.5 | LAC -3.5 |
| MIN @ DEN | DEN -3.5 / o38.5 | MIN +3.5 | DEN -3.5 |
| WAS @ BAL | BAL -3.5 / o34.5 | BAL-3.5/U | BAL-3.5/U |
| ATL @ MIA | ATL -3.5 / o36.5 | ATL -3.5 | MIA +3.5 |
| HOU @ CAR | HOU -1.5 / o35.5 | HOU-1.5/U | HOU -1.5 |
| Game | Line | Ryan | Sean |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ JAX | TB -2.5 / o35.5 | TB-2.5/U | TB -2.5 |
| NYG @ NYJ | NYG -3 / o36.5 | NYG -3 | NYG -3 |
| ARZ @ GB | GB -1.5 / o35.5 | GB-1.5/U | ARZ +1.5 |
| CIN @ PHI | PHI -2.5 / o36.5 | CIN +2.5 | PHI -2.5 |
| NO @ DAL | DAL -2.5 / o38.5 | NO +2.5 | NO +2.5 |
| SEA @ KC | SEA -2.5 / o36.5 | KC +2.5 | KC +2.5 |
| DET @ IND | IND -3.5 / o36.5 | IND -3.5 | IND -3.5 |
| CHI @ TEN | TEN -2.5 / o37.5 | TEN-2.5/U | TEN -2.5 |
| Locks. Ryan: KC +2.5, ATL -3.5, LAC -3.5. Sean: LAC -3.5, DEN -3.5, BAL -3.5. | |||
NFL Previews
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:41 Intro & Preseason Angles
16:33 Steelers vs. Bills
21:31 Patriots vs. Browns
28:50 49ers vs. Raiders
34:55 Rams vs. Chargers
39:40 Vikings vs. Broncos
43:51 Commanders vs. Ravens
46:53 Falcons vs. Dolphins
48:58 Texans vs. Panthers
51:58 Buccaneers vs. Jaguars
54:44 Giants vs. Jets
57:29 Cardinals vs. Packers
1:05:18 Bengals vs. Eagles
1:10:44 Saints vs. Cowboys
1:13:04 Seahawks vs. Chiefs
1:15:38 Lions vs. Colts
1:18:26 Bears vs. Titans
1:21:19 Locks, Dogs & Parlays
1:24:14 Sign-Off
