It’s a thought we’ve all had while watching the Kansas City Chiefs play football. Are they getting more calls that go their way than every other team? In Week 6, they played the Detroit Lions in primetime. The only flag thrown against them was a declined penalty. Not a single penalty yard. Are they that disciplined a football team? According to a study from the University of Texas at El Paso, the Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s favorite team. We read the 22-page study and broke it down in simpler terms for you in this article.
Flag on the Field: Are the Chiefs the NFL’s Most Favored Team?
The Study – Under (Financial) Pressure
Spencer Barnes, Ted Dischman, and Brandon Mendez authored a 22-page report for the University titled “Under (Financial) Pressure.” Their goal, examine how financial pressure influences rule enforcement by the National Football League. They analyzed 13,136 defensive penalties from 2015-2023. The result: postseason officiating disproportionately favored the Kansas City Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era. Mahomes and the Chiefs are a key driver of TV viewership and ratings, making them a key cog in the financial machine that is the NFL. The study suggests that financial reliance on dominant teams can, and has, affected the enforcement of officiating.
The NFL generated $23 billion in revenue in 2024. As the study points out, enough to place them next to S&P 500 companies like 3M, Waste Management, and Halliburton. The study highlights a post by Dave Portnoy on X that “characterized” a call as “rigged.”
You can’t overstate how big of a call that blatant cheating call was by the refs. A legit turnover, point changing, game changing call by the rigged league. #nflrigged
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) February 9, 2025
The study compared the Mahomes era Chiefs (2018-2023) to the Brady era Patriots (2015-2019) using those 13,136 defensive penalties from 2015-2023. They built a complex model that took into account factors like total penalty yardage, penalties that resulted in first downs, and subjective calls (pass interference, roughing the passer, etc). It factored in season-by-week, down, yards to go, defense, and home team. “In other words, our approach isolates patterns of systematic differences in enforcement in a setting where neutrality is expected.”
The Findings of the Study
The findings of this study are hard to argue with. It shows clear and obvious patterns that the Mahomes-era Chiefs “receive significantly more favorable penalty-related outcomes in the postseason.” It concluded that defensive penalties against the opposing team yielded 2.36 more yards per penalty. And were 23% more likely to result in a first down. On top of that, it’s 28% more likely that those come on a subjective penalty call (pass interference, defensive holding, roughing the passer, etc). AKA, where the referees can make up the difference.
The Chiefs will never beat the allegations.
Massive hold on the Mahomes run to set up a manageable 4th down that led to a TD. pic.twitter.com/8tmbi9CACU
— Maxwell Cunningham (@McKendryMM12) October 13, 2025
There was a 31% increase in first downs awarded via penalty to the Chiefs in the postseason. The Chiefs went from -8% in the regular season to +23% in the postseason, a 388% reversal in real-time to their baseline. The study also found, referees were more likely to call penalties that benefited the Chiefs’ offense in high-leverage situations. “Postseason penalties tend to occur in ways that disproportionately advantage the Chiefs when they are in a strong scoring position.” The same with penalties that resulted in a first down and extended drives. “We find no comparable postseason effect for the Brady-era Patriots, the Alex Smith–Andy Reid-era Chiefs, or other recent contenders such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, or San Francisco 49ers.”
The study determines that these penalties can not alone be attributed to dynasty status. But instead are the result of financial pressure, via television ratings. Prior research has found that controversial or dramatic officiating can influence audience retention. “The NFL may be reinforcing this success by repeatedly assigning referees with a demonstrated history of calling games favorably for the Chiefs back to their subsequent playoff matchups. This institutional pattern effectively amplifies the Chiefs’ postseason advantages and may help sustain elevated viewership and ratings tied to their appearances.”
Refs Are Terrorists#ScheduledTweethttps://t.co/NkGmvPzaLO pic.twitter.com/2Mgkt4Tsbr
— Sports Gambling Podcast ™ (@GamblingPodcast) February 13, 2023
The Chiefs Compared to the Patriots
The study used the Patriots’ recent dynasty as one of the key points of comparison. They found penalties in the Chiefs’ favor resulted in 1.85 more yards compared to the penalties in the Patriots’ favor in the postseason. The penalties in the Chiefs’ favor were 16% more likely to result in a first down than the Patriots. Those penalties were “subjective”, 26% more for the Chiefs than the Patriots. “This contrast suggests Kansas City’s postseason officiating advantage cannot be explained by general leniency or systematic trend toward dynastic franchises.”
There is an obvious jump in penalties for defenses against the Chiefs beginning in 2018 (the year Mahomes took over). The average pre-Mahomes was five penalties per game, and jumped to eight per game in the Mahomes era. The remainder of the NFL stayed stable at an average of four penalties per game, before and after Mahomes became the Chiefs quarterback. Between 2019 and 2022, the numbers came down, but the Chiefs still averaged .5-1.5 more penalties drawn per game. The number once again spiked in 2023, with the Chiefs drawing 5.6 penalties per game compared to the league’s 3.7 average.
“Kansas City’s 13 postseason appearances since 2018 have featured 78 total penalties. Which translates to 16.2 net first downs and 198.5 net penalties favoring the Chiefs under our estimates. These effects are material in a league where the average margin of victory in postseason games is about 9.23 from 2018 to 2023. Given their magnitude and consistency across postseason contests, the Chiefs’ penalty advantages plausibly influence which teams advance to the Super Bowl. This analysis reveals systematic differences in postseason officiating patterns that uniquely advantage the Kansas City Chiefs relative to their regular-season performance.”
In Summary
The NFL, whether knowingly or unknowingly, has placed certain officials in the Kansas City Chiefs’ playoff games that affect the outcome in favor of the Chiefs. This is likely driven by financial motivation and TV ratings. Patrick Mahomes is the face of the NFL. He brings along with him Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and Taylor Swift, among others. Mahomes and the Chiefs being good is good for the NFL, it’s good for ratings, and ultimately it’s good for the bottom line of a multi-billion dollar league.
Does this diminish who Patrick Mahomes is, or what he and this team have accomplished? No, it does not. Mahomes is still one of the best quarterbacks we’ve ever seen, and this team is on one of the best runs we’ve ever seen. They just needed a little help along the way to keep them on track. You can purchase access to the full 22-page study via the UTEP website.
