The start of the 2025 National Football League (NFL) season delivered more than its fair share of talking points, particularly with regards to the Super Bowl.
Before the start of the season, the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens were the 13/2 co-favourites with the bookmakers to win the NFL title.
According Betway Insider, the Eagles garnered twelve percent of all bets placed in the Super Bowl winner market, ahead of the Bills and Ravens with 10% each.
However, picture has changed after Week One, with the Bills now rated as the 6/1 favourites following their thrilling 41-40 victory over the Ravens on Sunday.
The Eagles also made a winning start to the new campaign, defeating Dallas Cowboys 24-20. Despite that result, they are now rated as 7/1 shots alongside the Ravens.
Intriguingly, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) computer model has taken a different view, calculating that the Ravens are the most likely winners of the Super Bowl this season.
The Ravens and Bills are the only teams given a better than 10% chance of being crowned champions this season. Here are the ESPN FPI standings after Week One.
- Baltimore Ravens – 13.6%
- Buffalo Bills – 11.4%
- Philadelphia Eagles – 9.8%
- Green Bay Packers – 9.2%
- Los Angeles Chargers – 6.7%
- San Francisco 49ers – 5.7%
- Kansas City Chiefs – 5.3%
- Washington Commanders – 5.1%
- Los Angeles Rams – 4.3%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4.3%
- Minnesota Vikings – 3.4%
- Cincinnati Bengals – 2.7%
- Denver Broncos – 2.7%
- Indianapolis Colts – 2.6%
- Detroit Lions – 2.5%
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 2.2%
- Jacksonville Jaguars – 1.5%
- Arizona Cardinals – 1.3%
- Dallas Cowboys – 1.1%
- Houston Texans – 1.1%
- Chicago Bears – 1.0%
- Las Vegas Raiders – 0.8%
- Atlanta Falcons – 0.5%
- Seattle Seahawks – 0.4%
- New England Patriots – 0.2%
- Carolina Panthers – 0.2%
- Cleveland Browns – 0.1%
- Tennessee Titans – 0.1%
- Miami Dolphins – 0.1%
- New Orleans Saints – 0.1%
- New York Giants – 0.1%
- New York Jets – 0.1%
It is tough to fathom why the Ravens have been handed the best odds of winning the Super Bowl by ESPN’s FPI given the manner of their defeat against the Bills.
They blew a 15-point lead in the final four minutes as their defensive unit capitulated in the face of relentless pressure from the Bills’ offense.
Quarterback Josh Allen demonstrated why he was chosen as the 2024 MVP award winner with one of the finest performances of his career.
The Ravens’ position at the top of the FPI becomes even more questionable when considering they have now lost four of their last five meetings with the Bills.
Two of those defeats were in the play-offs, which raises doubts about their ability to get the job done when the season reaches the business end.
The Ravens’ offensive unit was the first ever to eclipse 4,000 yards passing and 3,000 yards rushing last season, but they ultimately came up short against the Bills.
Their attacking strength was on show again in Buffalo, yet they somehow managed to lose a game which they should have won.
Safety Kyle Hamilton summed up the disappointment after the game, saying he didn’t want the Ravens to be known as a team that goes in front and then blows the lead.
However, there is an increasing body of evidence which suggests the Ravens lack the mental fortitude needed to win the Super Bowl.
On that basis, the Bills and Eagles are strongly fancied to contest the NFL’s championship game in Santa Clara, California, on February 8.
