NFL Week 10 Contest Bombs! | Bottom Line Bombs Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) makes his NFL Week 10 picks for the Circa Millions contest, leaning on home dogs as a new quarter starts. The loudest bomb is revenge on Arizona with the Rams minus 9.5, and Thursday night gets Washington plus 2.5 over the Giants.
Washington Plus The Points In The Meadowlands
Thursday Night Football opens the card, and CJ Sullivan is not buying the Giants hype. New York is a 2.5-point favorite at home against Washington, and the total has dropped to 40.5 because rain and wind are expected in the Meadowlands. These two tied in the first meeting, so both sides walk in feeling like they gave one away. That makes it a rare double revenge game.
The case for Washington starts with that first game. Jayden Daniels ran for over 100 yards and two touchdowns, and the Commanders were burying the Giants before a late comeback forced the tie. Then New York changed quarterbacks, and now J.J. McCarthy is getting treated like a phenom. But he threw for 115 yards against the Eagles last week. CJ also reminds Giants fans that the Saints beat them badly at home a few weeks back. So the Giants look fraudulent to him, and Washington still has an NFC East path if it wins tonight. It is a short week in bad weather, and New York does have the better coach. The pick is Washington +2.5 anyway, and CJ is staying away from that low total.
Ladders For Singletary And Theo Johnson
The props lean on New York having to run the ball in the weather. With Tyrone Tracy out, the backfield is basically Cam Skattebo and Devin Singletary. Singletary was the lead back last week, but CJ sees him as a secondary back who still soaks up carries. Skattebo is also a constant injury risk, so the number two back has real upside here. The full-unit play is Singletary over 6.5 rushing attempts. Then the ladder runs 10 attempts at +150, 13 at +280, 14 at +350, 15 at +425 and 16 at +550. Seven carries gets the main bet home.
Theo Johnson is the favorite ladder of the night. He is the second tight end next to Isaiah Likely, but he works the seams, and his receiving line sits at just 5.5 yards. That is one catch, and he makes 13 and 15-yard grabs like nothing. So the base bet is the over 5.5. Then the rungs climb fast, with 15 yards at +235, 20 at +362, 25 at +517 and 30 at +720. Also on the board are 40 yards at +1340, 50 at 22-1 and 60 at 33-1. Johnson is +950 to score anytime and 35-1 to score first.
On the Washington side, Stefon Diggs is the touchdown play. With Terry McLaurin out of the picture, Diggs is the clear number one, and he already has five touchdowns this season. He is 11-1 to score first and +225 anytime. So the first touchdown pair is Diggs and Johnson. CJ also looked at a Giants backup back whose anytime price was decent, but he passed on it. Then he was happy to be done with what he called a gross Thursday night matchup, especially with Giants fans already planning their parade route.
Dog Revenge Drives The NFL Week 10 Picks
Now the Circa Millions card. CJ went 2-3 last week and sits at 21-22-2 on the year, but week 10 starts a new contest quarter. So everyone is 0-0 again with quarterly prizes up for grabs. Last week was a chalk party, because favorites went 11-3-1 against the spread and 14-1 straight up. CJ thinks the books push back this week. After the trade deadline, favorites are 8-20 against the spread over the last two years and 25-42 across four, roughly 37 percent. That is why this card carries three underdogs and only two favorites.
The deadline itself gave him plenty of material. Cincinnati traded a sixth-round pick for Eagles pass rusher Arnold Ebiketie. Then a salary cap expert pointed out on Twitter that the move would also cost the Bengals a third-rounder tied to Trey Hendrickson, so the trade got canceled. Meanwhile, the Chargers finally sent a linebacker to Denver, inside the division, and he came right back after apparently failing a physical. CJ ran both as a bit, with Ebiketie heading back to Philly holding his Skyline Chili to go.
The first dog is the ugliest one. Jacksonville lays 10.5 at Tennessee, and the Jaguars look like the best team in football. They also beat the Titans by around 30 points in both meetings last year. But Tennessee is coming off a bye, and its offense has started to show up. The Titans scored 36 in an overtime loss at Cincinnati right before the break. They also put up 24 on the Browns at home. So a divisional home dog getting double digits off a bye is the spot. The bet is Titans +10.5, and CJ’s advice is to not think about it too hard.
Jets And Browns Join The Dirty Dogs
Next comes Buffalo at the Jets. The contest line is 7.5, while the books are dealing 8.5. Buffalo is on a short week after a physical Monday night win over the Vikings, and now it plays back-to-back road games. The Jets also did not sell at the deadline. They turned down Minnesota on Geno Smith and passed on an offer for Will McDonald, so this roster is still fighting for Aaron Glenn. CJ does not trust Glenn’s clock management. But getting more than a touchdown, he does not need the Jets to win. And the Bills defense is not good enough to lay this number on the road in the division. Jets +7.5 is the pick.
The third dog is Cleveland +4.5 against Houston. The Texans are 3-5, which CJ calls the greatest 3-5 team in football, and the Browns are a fraudulent 5-3. On paper, Houston’s defensive line should wreck a banged-up Cleveland offensive line. But this is only the Browns’ third home game of the year, and Cleveland at home turns everything into a slog. Neither team runs it well. Then there is the Deshaun Watson revenge game against his old team. Houston’s defense has also looked better lately, though that came against the Chargers. So Browns +4.5 finishes the dog portion of the card.
Packers Lay Three And Rams Get Revenge
The popular dog this week figures to be Minnesota, so CJ fades it. Green Bay is -3 at Lambeau against the Vikings, who won the week one meeting. Kirk Cousins makes his first start after the trade, reuniting with Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell. But he has been taking reps with Raiders receivers, and CJ does not expect a seamless debut outdoors. Jordan Love runs the hottest offense in football despite a shaky offensive line. CJ also predicted Minnesota would go 6-4 back when it was 6-0, and he is sticking to it. Packers -3 is the short favorite.
A few games stayed on the cutting room floor. Seattle against the Raiders at 6.5 looks obvious, with Mendoza, the number one overall pick, making his first start against Mike Macdonald’s defense. That is exactly why CJ is avoiding it, because too many people will be on Seattle. He will bet Baltimore on Monday night against the Chargers separately, but he keeps Monday games off the contest card. Bengals and Steelers also got passed, since Cincinnati is coming back from Europe and Pittsburgh is off a bye. Teams in that bye spot are 5-0, yet that was not enough to make him play Pittsburgh.
Then the personal one. Arizona upset the Rams in LA a few weeks ago and knocked CJ and Luke the Young Sharp out of Survivor. Now the Rams lay 9.5 in the rematch. Arizona traded Jacoby Brissett to Baltimore, and Gardner Minshew got hurt, so Carson Beck gets the start. Beck has almost no receivers, since Marvin Harrison was traded and Michael Wilson is hurt. Myles Garrett returns against a decimated Arizona offensive line, too. The Rams are missing Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. But they have Matthew Stafford, a top-five defense and a bye next week. CJ calls it a 24-3 win. Rams -9.5, bomb it.
So the full contest card reads Rams -9.5, Packers -3, Browns +4.5, Jets +7.5 and Titans +10.5, and CJ wants a 5-0 start to the new quarter. A few other games got a look and a pass. Detroit and New England in Europe sits at 3 in the contest, but bounce-back spots are tough to read. Dallas would be the dog to take against San Francisco, except CJ is done betting the Cowboys after last week. Meanwhile, Bottom Line Bombs now has its own account on X, which Luke the Young Sharp is helping run.
Into The Box With Russini And Clay Travis
The Box segment starts with Diana Russini’s comeback. Her new show, The Russini Report, debuted on BetUS, an offshore gambling site, and the stream crashed at its noon launch. It aired about an hour and a half late, and it was prerecorded anyway. CJ’s bigger issue is the pitch. Russini wants to get back to football and skip the affair with Mike Vrabel entirely. But she was a reporter, not a personality, and nobody tunes in for an hour of scoops. So his advice is blunt. Talk about the scandal, because that is the only real show there.
Then he moves to the hot take fight between Clay Travis and Nick Wright. Wright told a podcast that Travis once admitted he saw an open lane for a right-wing sports guy and took it. Travis denies it. CJ’s view is that the whole genre is disingenuous, Wright included. Nobody has a real opinion on every sports story for four hours a day unless they are paid to have one. And if someone does, he says, that person is a psychopath. Then the new Bet Detective song from Colby Dant closes out the show.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:35 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
6:00 Washington vs. New York Picks
16:56 Circa Millions Third Quarter & Trade Deadline
22:22 Jacksonville vs. Tennessee Picks
25:08 Buffalo Bills vs. Jets Picks
28:37 Houston vs. Cleveland Picks
33:51 Vikings vs. Packers Picks
38:19 Off The Card: Raiders, Seattle & Baltimore
41:16 Rams vs. Arizona Picks
45:05 Pick Recap & New Bottom Line Bombs X Account
47:50 Into the Box: Diana Russini & Clay Travis
58:38 Sign-Off & Socials
