College Football Week 11 Preview & Picks Recap
The College Football Experience on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network continues its FCS Week 11 picks run, with Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) and Chris Van Dine (@ChrisV160) working through the whole card while Ryan McIntyre (@Moneyline_Mac) is on the road. Prairie View at Pine Bluff gets the double lock, and Chris rides Mercer plus 7.5 at Tennessee Tech.
Can Merrimack stay within 15 at Monmouth? Is South Dakota laying 12.5 against Northern Iowa the best bet on the board? Should you lay 6.5 with Campbell at Elon? Does VMI finally score a home touchdown against The Citadel? Can Montana handle Idaho State at 32 degrees? We talk it all and more on this episode of The College Football Experience.
Towson Survives And Montana State Wobbles
Week 10 left the guys plenty to chew on. Towson came through for Chris Van Dine with a late rally to beat Sacred Heart. Meanwhile, Colby Dant was checking that score from inside Rice-Eccles. Lehigh destroyed Colgate, so the Colgate puzzle only got harder. Lamar beat Stephen F. Austin by 17. Murray State also covered against Youngstown State with four seconds left. Chris Van Dine only found out because his account had more money than expected. Then there was Montana State, which needed triple overtime to escape. Both hosts now doubt Montana State reaches the title game in Nashville. The power ratings still have South Dakota State first and Youngstown State second, with Montana State third. But Chris Van Dine thinks they are bound to fall. This team looks like it is riding last year’s coattails.
Friday Night T-Birds And The Merrimack Double Lock
Friday night opens with Southern Utah at Portland State in Hillsboro, Oregon. The line opened around 10 and has moved to 12. Colby Dant takes the T-Birds and will probably bet it, mostly because the Friday card is thin. And the case is easy to make. Portland State gives up 44 points a game. It also ranks dead last against opponents’ averages, at minus 141 yards per game. Then Saturday brings the first double lock. Merrimack catches 15.5 at Monmouth, and both hosts bet it. Monmouth is 7-0 in the CAA, but this game is non-conference. So the real stakes come next week against Campbell. Also, Monmouth is 0-4 against the spread as a home favorite this year. None of its four home wins came by more than two touchdowns.
Towson is the other CAA team the guys keep riding. The Tigers get 2.5 at Rhode Island, and Chris Van Dine is absolutely sticking with them. Their 0-8 start hid some close losses, including a one-point loss to Monmouth. So the conference numbers tell a different story. Towson is plus 92 yards per game in CAA play, while Rhode Island is minus 77. The conference ratings also have Towson by eight. A win here keeps the Tigers on track to close with four straight, and both hosts think the coach should be back next year. Earlier, in Bryant at Sacred Heart, Colby Dant took the home Pioneers. Meanwhile, his co-host leaned Bryant and the under on 46.5, because the under is 7-2-1 in Bryant games. Neither bet it.
Redbirds And Blue Devils Lead The FCS Week 11 Picks
Illinois State is 7-3 and catching 13.5 at Youngstown State, the top game on the power ratings board. Colby Dant locks the Redbirds. He doesn’t need them to win, only to play like a team with its back to the wall. Chris Van Dine thinks they probably need to beat South Dakota in the finale to clinch a spot. Then he went to the total and bet the over 64.5. His partner joined him, so the guys hit this game in two directions. The reason is the Youngstown State defense, which looked improved earlier in the year. But Murray State just put 35 points and 536 yards on it. Plenty of that came late, yet both hosts think Illinois State can move the ball too.
Central Connecticut State can lock up the NEC with a win at Long Island. The guys lock the real Blue Devils laying 9.5. And the matchup is lopsided on offense. Central Connecticut has a top 50 unit. Long Island averages 14 points and about 247 yards a game, second worst in the FCS. It also hasn’t topped 17 points in its last four games. Meanwhile, Chris Van Dine needed his weekly Pioneer League bet. So he took Marist getting 8.5 at home against Butler, mostly for fun. He even joked about taking it back by Saturday. Marist’s last win came in a dicey game against Morehead State, so this one is a small play at best.
Villanova, Yale And Columbia Get Double Locks
The Patriot League has given Colby Dant fits all year, but Villanova looks like it has turned a corner. The Wildcats crushed Richmond last week. So the guys double lock Villanova against Holy Cross, with the line at 7.5. That win over Lehigh keeps conference hopes alive and could help an at-large case at 8-4. Then comes Yale, laying 2.5 against Princeton at the Yale Bowl. The numbers make no sense next to the record. Yale is plus 118 yards a game, yet most of its losses have been turnover fueled. Princeton allows only 15 points a game while giving up 364 yards. Also, Princeton barely got past Dartmouth, Cornell and Brown. So both hosts go back to the well on Yale for another double lock.
Brown lays 12.5 against Columbia, and neither host trusts Brown to cover a big number. Its only other game as a favorite came against New Haven, a 17-10 win that didn’t cover. Columbia has been drilled three straight weeks, but it still beat Penn at Penn. So Chris Van Dine bets the Lions, and his partner locks them too. Later, the Military Classic of the South produced one of the best calls of the night. The under 49.5 in Citadel against VMI gets compared to the service academy games. Both teams see the option every day in practice, so the clock should keep running. Also, VMI hasn’t scored a touchdown at home this season. It averages two points a game there, though across only three home games. That’s a double lock.
Coaching Farewells And Look-Ahead Spots
Stony Brook lays 5.5 at New Hampshire, and the guys go in on the Seawolves. Chris Van Dine would take them at anything under a touchdown. A few blown leads have hidden a good team, and New Hampshire has been bad. Then the emotional angles start. Furman hosts Chattanooga in Clay Hendrix’s final home game. Colby Dant locks Furman on the moneyline at plus 115. He admits Chattanooga has been the better team all year. But he expects the players to get up for their coach, while his co-host stays away. Wofford gets the same treatment against ETSU, because Shawn Watson is stepping down after the season. This is his final home game. Wofford is also plus 14 points per game at home, so both hosts lock the Terriers.
Harvard lays 12.5 at Penn the week before Yale, and the history says that spot is trouble. Last year, in the same spot, Harvard needed overtime to win 45-43. The year before, it won at Penn by only three. So both hosts take Penn, and Chris Van Dine puts a small bet on it. Both defenses also rank top five in yards allowed. That makes the under worth a look too, with the computer projecting 37 points. Meanwhile, Colby Dant locks North Carolina A&T laying 10.5 against Hampton, because he thinks Hampton is that bad. His co-host lays it with him but has reservations. A&T only beat Chicago State by 15, and laying big numbers is not a role it’s used to.
A South Dakota Parlay And A Mercer Upset Call
Campbell can’t afford a slip against Elon. A loss would make next week’s game at Monmouth meaningless. And the hosts split here. Colby Dant bets Elon catching 6.5 in a look-ahead rivalry spot. He points to an Elon pass defense ranked top 20 against Campbell’s top passing offense. Chris Van Dine likes Campbell under a touchdown. His schedule strength ratings have Campbell 53rd and Elon 108th. Then both hosts agree on Houston Christian laying 15.5 against Northwestern State, with the computer projecting 36-16. Also, North Alabama lays 13.5 against a 1-9 West Georgia team. Chris bets that one, because he wanted to fade West Georgia all year and rarely did.
Colby Dant sees a South Dakota parlay on the board. South Dakota State lays 15.5 at Southern Illinois, the most disappointing team of the year for Chris Van Dine. Both bet the Jackrabbits, who just beat Northern Iowa badly on the road. Next, South Dakota lays 12.5 at home against Northern Iowa, off a bye and on senior day. That might be the best play on the whole board. UNI has been bad on the road, so it’s another double lock. Then the guys split again on Mercer getting 7.5 at Tennessee Tech. Mercer allows 269 yards a game in conference play and has 24 sacks. The conference ratings have Tennessee Tech by only one, so the Mercer side gets locked.
SWAC Suspensions And A Late Window Full Of Locks
The SWAC got interesting fast. Fourteen Grambling players are suspended after a fight, so both hosts flipped to Bethune-Cookman. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has nine players suspended too. That sets up what Colby Dant called maybe his favorite play of the week. He locks Prairie View in that first-place showdown. His co-host joins him, since Prairie View crushed Alabama A&M last week. Chris Van Dine also locks Southern getting 2.5 against Alcorn State. Trey Hawley is over 1,000 rushing yards, and Southern has run for over 300 yards in back-to-back games. Then he goes back to Incarnate Word laying 24.5 against Nicholls. Both also bet Lindenwood laying 1.5 at UT Martin, where the computer has Lindenwood by 10.
The late card stays busy. Samford gets 2.5 against Western Carolina, and the guys double lock both Samford and the over 56.5. Samford has covered eight of its last nine, mostly as a dog. Idaho lays 7.5 against UC Davis, and that’s another double lock. Utah Tech is a plus 170 moneyline shot against an Eastern Washington defense ranked bottom three in the country. UT Rio Grande gets 14.5 against Stephen F. Austin, with plus 470 on the moneyline. Then the night closes at Washington Grizzly Stadium. Montana lays 7.5 against Idaho State, with a forecast around 32 degrees. So both lock the Griz. Asked for a favorite at the end, Chris Van Dine named Campbell and the Citadel-VMI under.
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
00:53 Towson, Lehigh & Montana State Recap
10:18 Southern Utah vs. Portland State Picks
12:29 Bryant vs. Sacred Heart Picks
14:17 Merrimack vs. Monmouth Picks
17:54 Towson vs. Rhode Island Picks
19:27 Davidson vs. Dayton Picks
20:47 Illinois State vs. Youngstown State Picks
23:01 Mercyhurst vs. Duquesne Picks
24:48 Georgetown vs. Fordham Picks
27:25 Maine vs. Albany Picks
29:29 Stonehill vs. Robert Morris Picks
31:02 Central Connecticut State vs. Long Island Picks
33:11 Butler vs. Marist Picks
35:52 New Haven vs. Wagner Picks
36:54 Villanova vs. Holy Cross Picks
39:30 Norfolk State vs. Morgan State Picks
41:59 Princeton vs. Yale Picks
45:37 Columbia vs. Brown Picks
47:42 Presbyterian vs. Morehead State Picks
48:36 The Citadel vs. VMI Picks
50:52 Bucknell vs. William & Mary Picks
52:26 Delaware State vs. Howard Picks
53:29 Lafayette vs. Colgate Picks
54:58 Valparaiso vs. Stetson Picks
55:48 Murray State vs. Indiana State Picks
57:38 Stony Brook vs. New Hampshire Picks
59:10 Dartmouth vs. Cornell Picks
1:01:10 Chattanooga vs. Furman Picks
1:02:33 Harvard vs. Penn Picks
1:05:11 Grambling vs. Bethune-Cookman Picks
1:07:00 North Carolina A&T vs. Hampton Picks
1:07:58 South Carolina State vs. Central Picks
1:09:03 ETSU vs. Wofford Picks
1:11:34 SEMO vs. Charleston Southern Picks
1:12:46 Montana State vs. Northern Colorado Picks
1:13:56 Drake vs. St. Thomas Picks
1:15:04 Lehigh vs. Richmond Picks
1:18:05 Campbell vs. Elon Picks
1:22:55 Houston Christian vs. Northwestern State Picks
1:24:37 North Alabama vs. West Georgia Picks
1:25:55 South Dakota State vs. Southern Illinois Picks
1:28:13 Northern Iowa vs. South Dakota Picks
1:29:37 Gardner-Webb vs. Western Illinois Picks
1:33:33 Central Arkansas vs. Eastern Kentucky Picks
1:34:19 Abilene Christian vs. Austin Peay Picks
1:36:30 Mercer vs. Tennessee Tech Picks
1:39:22 Tarleton vs. West Florida Picks
1:41:10 Alcorn State vs. Southern Picks
1:42:34 Nichols vs. Incarnate Word Picks
1:44:28 Prairie View vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff Picks
1:46:00 Mississippi Valley State vs. Florida A&M Picks
1:46:40 Texas Southern vs. Alabama A&M Picks
1:47:16 Lindenwood vs. UT Martin Picks
1:48:27 Jackson State vs. Alabama State Picks
1:49:22 Western Carolina vs. Samford Picks
1:51:06 Eastern Illinois vs. Tennessee State Picks
1:51:49 UC Davis vs. Idaho Picks
1:53:58 East Texas A&M vs. Lamar Picks
1:54:43 Weber State vs. Northern Arizona Picks
1:56:34 Eastern Washington vs. Utah Tech Picks
1:57:20 Stephen F. Austin vs. UT Rio Grande Picks
1:58:30 Selah Bubble Talk
1:59:44 Idaho State vs. Montana Picks
2:01:16 Sign-Off & Socials
