The FCS regular season winds down and playoff positioning tightens across the map, so every result carries extra weight. Double-digit favorites can still stumble if they ease off the gas, and totals swing on weather and defensive battles. The FCS has been a fun season. We started off strong, then did terribly. Recently, we’ve been back on track. Last week, three of four picks hit. Let’s take a look at my top FCS Week 11 picks and best bets.
FCS Week 11 Picks And Best Bets
Montana State (-22.5) @ Northern Colorado
The first pick on the FCS Week 11 picks list is when Montana State rolls into Greeley with one of the best over profiles in the FCS. The Bobcats sit near the top of every ranking and own a defense that has smothered Big Sky opponents all season. They control the line of scrimmage on both sides and force opponents into long third downs.
Northern Colorado has struggled to score consistently and ranks near the bottom of the conference in points and in total defense. The Bears face a unit that ranks among the nation’s best in yards allowed per play and has held multiple opponents under 20 points. This could be a rough game for them.
Montana State’s offense leans on a physical running game that wears down front sevens. That style of football travels well on the road, especially when looking at Northern Colorado’s defense. Playoff positioning adds extra motivation. Montana State wants a strong finish to lock in seeding, and this matchup gives them a clear path to a multi-score win. This one should be a rout.
FCS Week 11 Best Bet: Montana State -22.5
Tarleton State (-18.5) @ West Florida
Tarleton State remains the only undefeated team in the FCS and enters this road game with a clear path to clinching the UAC automatic bid. The Texans have dominated on both sides of the ball all season and own one of the most efficient offenses in the subdivision. They score in bunches through a balanced attack that mixes a strong run game with explosive downfield throws.
West Florida has improved in spots. However, they still rank well below the top of the conference in scoring defense and points per game allowed. Tarleton’s defense creates turnovers and short fields, which fuels the offense. That combination has produced multiple double-digit wins this year. West Florida’s offense has been more of hit-or-miss.
Motivation is high for Traleton because a win here locks up the conference title race and keeps them in position for a top seed.
FCS Week 11 Best Bet: Tarleton State -18.5
Idaho State @ Montana (-7.5)
I can’t help but keep picking the Grizzlies in my FCS picks, partially because I want them to keep doing well, plus I like using the photo my wife took, and in Week 11, I love their matchup. The Grizzlies have been a consistent team, and they have a strong home record. They feature a balanced offense that can run the ball and create explosive plays in the air.
Montana’s defense has been solid against the run and forced opponents into predictable passing downs. That profile matches up well against an Idaho State offense that relies heavily on the ground.
Home-field advantage in Missoula is real, especially late in the season when the crowd gets loud. Montana wants a strong result to boost its at-large resume, while Idaho State needs a win just to stay in the conversation. This should be a good game. However, Montana has the edge, talent, and home-field advantage.
FCS Week 11 Best Bet: Montana -7.5
Harvard @ Penn UNDER 40 Points
Harvard travels to Franklin Field for an Ivy League game that could help decide the conference title race. Both teams play a physical, defense-first brand of football that tends to keep scores low. Harvard’s defense ranks among the best in the Ivy League in points allowed and yards per play. Meanwhile, Penn’s offense has been inconsistent and struggles to sustain drives against ranked defenses. The Crimson control the clock with a strong running game.
Penn’s offense ranks near the bottom of the Ivy in scoring and has trouble converting third downs, especially against physical teams. Harvard’s secondary has been stingy. The Penn Quakers’ defense is solid at times as well. On top of all this, weather in Philadelphia this time of year can slow the tempo and favor the under.
Harvard needs a win to stay in position for at least a share of the Ivy Title, so the Crimson will lean on their defense. A lot of signs point to the under and I’m inclined to agree with the signs.
FCS Week 11 Best Bet: Harvard/Penn UNDER 40 points
Mercer @ Tennessee Tech (-7)
The last game on our FCS Week 11 picks is Tennessee Tech hosting Mercer in a game with some more major playoff implications. The Golden Eagles sit in position to claim the outright title and automatic bid with a win. They also own one of the stronger home records in the league under coach Bobby Wilder. Tech’s defense has been elite, holding opponents to under 20 points on average. Mercer brings a strong rushing attack, but the Bears face a Tech front that has been tough to run against all season.
Tech’s offense moves the ball efficiently and scores in the red zone at a high rate. Mercer will try to control the tempo with its ground game. However, Tech’s defense creates negative plays and forces a lot of third-and-long situations. The Golden Eagles also have an edge in special teams and turnover margin, two areas that can swing close games.
Mercer has the talent to stay competitive. However, home field and title stakes give Tech the edge. The Golden Eagles play with extra urgency in Cookeville and have been a cover machine at home. Seven points won’t be enough.
FCS Week 11 Best Bet: Tennessee Tech -7
