NFL Picks Week 9 (Ep. 2722)

NFL Picks Week 9 Recap

Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) go through their NFL picks for Week 9, starting with both of them backing the Ravens plus 10 on Thursday night. Ryan Kramer makes the Saints minus 3 against the Browns his first lock, and Sean Green takes the Dolphins plus 245 on the moneyline.

Pick The Game Or Get Off The Mic

Week 9 opens on a soapbox. Sean Green spent a quiet Eagles week listening to other gambling shows, and the habit of hosts refusing to pick games has him fired up. When teams are bad, they get more points. That is the whole reason the point spread exists, and two bad teams often produce the best betting spots on the board. Ryan Kramer goes after the arrogance of it, the idea that a listener’s day changes because a host announced he has no opinion on a game. Both hosts sit at 61% on their NFL locks, so the receipts back up the attitude.

So the plan is simple. The guys pick every game against the spread on an almost full 15-game slate, with Pittsburgh and Tennessee on the bye. They also have travel on the calendar, because they head to Utah for the Holy War and will watch Sunday’s games from a Salt Lake bar. That means no pregame show this week. The postgame show still runs with listener calls, though, and the first-half parlay should land on Ryan Kramer’s feed. Sean Green also wants Salt Lake bar suggestions from listeners, with one firm note attached: no near beer.

Ravens Plus 10 And A Split In Madrid

Thursday night is a Close Your Eyes special, and both hosts grab Baltimore getting 10 at home against Jacksonville. Nobody is pretending the Ravens look good. Joe Fagnano starts on a short week with a bum leg, and the incoming veteran quarterback won’t be official until the weekend. But the total sits at 40, and Sean Green reads that as the whole case, because an ugly, grind-it-out game makes 10 points a lot of cushion. He pencils in something like 24-17. Jacksonville as a 10-point road favorite after a big win also smells like a letdown spot, and a desperate home team in prime time rarely gets embarrassed.

Sunday then opens in Madrid, where Cincinnati lays three against Atlanta with a 52.5 total. Sean Green takes the Bengals. Atlanta plays single-high coverage on 61% of its snaps, third most in the league, and Cincinnati gains 7.7 yards per dropback against it, also third most. NFC South teams are 8-14 ATS outside the division, and the drop from 4.5 to 3 is part of the appeal. Ryan Kramer goes the other way with the Falcons. James Pierre returns from suspension, the secondary is healthier, and the Bengals’ offensive line is still the problem. Circa also showed 80% of tickets but only 12% of the handle on Cincinnati, which hints the sharper money sits with Atlanta.

Spot Plays Rule The Early Window

The early window starts with the spot of spots. Cleveland plays its third straight road game against a New Orleans team coming off a bye, and the Saints only lay three. Ryan Kramer dug up the history. The last team in that spot was the Browns last year against Pittsburgh, a loss as 5.5-point dogs, and before that it was the Browns in 2024 at Philadelphia, where they covered as eight-point dogs in a 20-16 game. Deshaun Watson self-reported a concussion, so a backup starts. The Saints also get their left tackle back at practice. Both hosts lay the three with New Orleans, and Kramer adds a Saints defensive anytime touchdown to his round robin.

Detroit at Miami splits the table. Sean Green calls it a sandwich spot for the Lions: an emotional division win, Jack Campbell in the hospital, an international trip next week, and a seven-point non-conference road number, one of the toughest spots to cover in the league. So he takes the Dolphins plus seven and adds Miami on the money line at plus 245 as his dog of the week. Ryan Kramer agrees the spot is brutal but scrubs it anyway, because he expects Detroit to rally around Campbell. He lays the seven with what he calls a little tragic magic seasoning.

The Rams lay 5.5 in Washington with a 47 total, and Sean Green lays it. Sean McVay is 12-7 ATS in these 1 PM Eastern games, and Washington’s third-down offense ranks 31st against a Rams defense that ranks sixth on third down. Matthew Stafford hasn’t looked sharp, but the Rams still covered against the Eagles, the Chargers and the Raiders. Ryan Kramer takes the points with the Commanders. His reason is Dan Quinn, who has faced Stafford three times without losing, with eight sacks, two interceptions and Stafford’s teams averaging under 20 points. He also watched the Rams in person and saw a defense that gave up plenty of space.

Indianapolis is the other Close Your Eyes special, a five-point home dog against a Dallas defense that ranks 29th. Both hosts ride the Colts. Daniel Jones is 16-8 as a dog of four to 6.5 points, and the look-ahead line had the Colts getting only 3.5. Shane Steichen against Christian Parker is a real coaching edge too. Sean Green makes Indy plus five his first lock, but he suggests waiting on Jonathan Taylor news before betting, since a trade or a limited workload could push the number toward seven. Meanwhile Ryan Kramer takes the Colts on the money line at plus 205 as his dog.

Giants at Eagles brings the loudest argument of the night. New York is a three-point road favorite with a 38.5 total, and Joe Milton starts for Philadelphia. Sean Green loves the switch from Tanner McKee and points to Milton going 22 of 29 with a touchdown and no picks against the Bills. He takes the Eagles plus three, because Philadelphia is on a 30-7 run against New York and this is the first time the Giants have been favored in the matchup since 2016. Ryan Kramer thinks the Eagles are prepping for a yard sale and expects Milton to turn it over against simulated pressure. He lays the three and makes it a lock.

Both hosts take the Jets plus 10 in Kansas City. A four-to-one money line on this Chiefs team baffles Ryan Kramer, and Sean Green adds that Kansas City is 7-18 ATS as a favorite of more than three. Since Tyreek Hill left in 2022, Patrick Mahomes has fewer deep passing touchdowns than Will Levis. The number is big mostly because the Jets lost back-to-back home games to the Raiders and Dolphins. Still, Geno Smith with garbage time available and a 10-point cushion is the play, and Sean figures anyone laying the Chiefs should pair it with the under, since a Kenneth Walker blowout is their only real path.

Denver lays three in Carolina with a 44.5 total. Sean Green admits the spot is bad for the Broncos off a division win, but he lays it anyway. Bo Nix has 15 straight wins in one-score games, tied for the longest streak in NFL history, and Carolina ranks 28th in havoc rate after firing its defensive coordinator. The replacement hasn’t called a defense since 2017 in Jacksonville. Ryan Kramer takes the Panthers on a trend that is hard to ignore: they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight off a loss as a home dog. He also thinks their gap-style run game can shorten the game against a Denver defense that struggles with it.

Fading The Chargers In The Late Window

San Francisco comes off the bye laying 10 against Las Vegas, with a 52.5 total. Sean Green takes the Raiders plus 10, because Kirk Cousins is 7-2 ATS as a dog of more than seven, and Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey all missed Wednesday practice. The Raiders also lost by only three as home dogs to both the Bills and the Chiefs, and the Bay Area will carry plenty of their fans. He likes the over too, picturing something like 35-28. Ryan Kramer lays the 10 with the Niners, mostly on how bad the Raiders’ defense has been, and he expects a sharp offense out of the bye.

Houston at the Chargers might be the easiest call of the week. The Texans lay 4.5 with a 41 total, and both hosts are on them. Justin Herbert ranks 35th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play, and one in five of his pressures turns into a sack. The Chargers haven’t topped 23 points all season. So Sean Green predicts a 26-3 Texans win, the same score Houston put up in Tennessee, and he likes the Chargers team total under as well. Ryan Kramer calls it about as easy as it gets in the NFL and locks up C.J. Stroud and the Texans.

Green Bay gets three in New England with a 47 total, and both hosts back the Packers. The Green Bay defense has been near the top of the league at limiting explosive plays, which is exactly how the Patriots win. Green Bay also ranks fourth in havoc rate. Meanwhile New England is thin at pass catcher with Hunter Henry out, and Henderson is missing a second straight week with an illness amid trade chatter. Sean Green makes the Packers a lock. Ryan Kramer thinks Drake Maye eventually gets bored of dinking and dunking, and he has a Green Bay defensive touchdown in consideration.

Seattle hosts Arizona as an 8.5-point favorite, down from 11 at open after Sam Darnold went out with a quad injury. Sean Green lays it. Seattle is 10-0 straight up and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 against Arizona, the Cardinals are 6-13 ATS following a win, and Gardner Minshew is 3-9 ATS off a win as a dog. Nobody on Arizona can guard JSN either. Ryan Kramer takes the points, because Drew Lock is coming off an elbow issue and Jalen Milroe could end up playing. He also notes that since 2016, Seattle has laid 8.5 or more at home against Arizona three times and covered once.

Bears And Bills Under The Lights

Before prime time, the guys build an Underdog entry. Greg Dulcich goes higher on 37.5 receiving yards against a Lions defense allowing 97.71 yards per game to tight ends, and he cleared that number in each of his last two games. Daniel Jones goes higher on 204.5 passing yards against Dallas, because only two quarterbacks have stayed under that mark against the Cowboys this season. A $100 entry pays $350. Then Sunday night brings Chicago laying six against Tampa Bay with a 47.5 total, and the hosts split again.

Sean Green lays the six with the Bears. Ben Johnson is 8-1 ATS in prime time and 19-4-1 ATS in night games going back to his Lions coordinator days, and NFC South teams keep losing outside the division. D’Andre Swift three rushing touchdowns in Seattle also stick with him. Ryan Kramer takes the Bucs plus six. He thinks Chicago dumped extra emotion into that win in Jeffrey Simmons’ first game, expects Tampa to run the ball and stop the run, and calls the total a little high.

Monday night, Buffalo lays 3.5 in Minnesota, and both hosts lay it. Josh Allen is 6-0 against Brian Flores defenses with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, though Ryan Kramer points out all six came when Flores coached Miami. The Vikings roll out either a banged-up Kyler Murray or Carson Wentz. And the last two opponents ran all over Flores, including Detroit’s 34 carries for 218 yards. So James Cook could carry the night. Sean Green makes Buffalo his third lock, and Kramer has the game in mind for the Circa Million too.

The NFL Picks Week 9 Locks, Dogs And Teasers

Ryan Kramer hit all three locks plus his dog and tease last week, and this time he goes Saints minus three, Texans minus 4.5 and Giants minus three, a number he expects to climb to 3.5. His money line dog is the Colts at plus 205. His teaser moves the Lions to minus one, the Panthers to plus nine and the Bucs to plus 12, because he doesn’t think the Broncos can beat anyone by 10. Sean Green locks Indianapolis plus five, Green Bay plus three and Buffalo minus 3.5, with Miami at plus 245 as his dog. His teaser takes Chicago to a pick, Seattle to minus 2.5 and the Rams to a pick.

For the Circa Million, the guys only agreed on seven games, so the card nearly builds itself: Saints minus three, Texans minus 4.5, Colts plus five, Packers plus three and Bills minus 3.5. Sean likes the mix of a home dog, a small home favorite, two road favorites and a road dog, with no massive spread in either direction. They will also be at Circa on Friday night before the Utah trip. Then the props show counts everyone down to Jaguars and Ravens on Thursday, and Sean is riding the Dolphins money line all week. Fins up.

NFL Week 9 Odds

NFL Week 9 Odds

Full slate lines · as of episode air (Nov. 4)

GAME

SPREAD

MONEYLINE

TOTAL

11/5 5:15PM

Jacksonville Jaguars

-10

-525

40

Baltimore Ravens

–

+410

–

11/8 6:30AM

Cincinnati Bengals

-3

-165

52.5

Atlanta Falcons

–

+145

–

11/8 10:00AM

Cleveland Browns

–

+145

42.5

New Orleans Saints

-3

-165

–

11/8 10:00AM

Detroit Lions

-7

-320

50.5

Miami Dolphins

–

+265

–

11/8 10:00AM

Los Angeles Rams

-5.5

-240

47

Washington Commanders

–

+205

–

11/8 10:00AM

Dallas Cowboys

-5

-240

51

Indianapolis Colts

–

+205

–

11/8 10:00AM

New York Giants

-3

-170

38.5

Philadelphia Eagles

–

+150

–

11/8 10:00AM

New York Jets

–

+395

47.5

Kansas City Chiefs

-10

-500

–

11/8 10:00AM

Denver Broncos

-3

-150

44.5

Carolina Panthers

–

+130

–

11/8 1:05PM

Las Vegas Raiders

–

+395

52.5

San Francisco 49ers

-10

-500

–

11/8 1:05PM

Houston Texans

-4.5

-220

41

Los Angeles Chargers

–

+190

–

11/8 1:25PM

Green Bay Packers

–

+148

47

New England Patriots

-3

-168

–

11/8 1:25PM

Arizona Cardinals

–

+315

39.5

Seattle Seahawks

-8.5

-385

–

11/8 5:20PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

–

+240

47.5

Chicago Bears

-6

-285

–

11/9 5:15PM

Buffalo Bills

-3.5

-180

45.5

Minnesota Vikings

–

+155

–

Podcast Chapters

0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:48 Kramer’s Dirty Soda & Dorm Room Trouble
5:25 Why Refusing to Make a Pick Is Insane
19:36 Jaguars vs. Ravens Picks
28:58 Bengals vs. Falcons Picks
43:03 Browns vs. Saints Picks
51:16 Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins Picks
56:45 Rams vs. Commanders Picks
1:02:11 Cowboys vs. Colts Picks
1:13:46 Giants vs. Eagles Picks
1:23:37 Jets vs. Chiefs Picks
1:31:28 Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers Picks
1:37:44 Las Vegas Raiders vs. San Francisco 49ers Picks
1:42:28 Houston Texans vs. Chargers Picks
1:48:17 Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots Picks
1:54:02 Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Picks
2:02:35 Underdog Entry: Dulcich & Daniel Jones
2:07:02 Bucs vs. Bears Picks
2:15:04 Bills vs. Vikings Picks
2:21:28 Locks, Dog & Tease
2:28:54 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast