Remember all the analysis and research that was done over the summer? It’s Week 9 in the NFL, and just about everything we thought in August is practically meaningless. The San Diego Chargers have as many wins in the league as the San Diego Padres. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings just had their perfect season ended. The NFL is anything but predictable. It’s a week-to-week league, and we need to be week-to-week handicappers. Let’s get into who to follow and who to fade in our NFL betting analysis for Week 9.
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How should I bet on the NFL this weekend? Week 9 Analytics & Trends
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Detroit Lions
The Miami Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games, but they could be in for a game that gets away from them this weekend. Miami hosts the Detroit Lions on Sunday, and this is a really tough matchup for the Dolphins.
The Lions have a legitimately terrible pass defense. Detroit has allowed opponents to average 276.6 passing yards per game this year. However, Miami has one of the worst passing offenses in the league. The Dolphins have only average 166.7 yards passing per game this year. Detroit should also be able to generate a pass rush against a Miami offensive line that has struggled to keep a clean pocket. The Detroit defense is really poor, but this Miami offense might be worse.
When Detroit has the ball, they will either hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs and shred the Miami defense, or air it out and shred the Miami defense. The Dolphins have a few pieces that will be long term solutions on defense, but there are too many holes and too many weapons on Detroit. The Lions could run away with this one and the seven points doesn’t look remotely scary here.
Best Bet: Detroit Lions -7
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears are off three straight wins after getting quarterback Caleb Williams back in the lineup. Chicago has won and covered against Atlanta, New England, and Seattle. Oh, and the Bears just added a literal demon to their defensive line. However, Tampa Bay has won back-to-back games by a combined score of 59-14. The ground-and-pound Bucs have thrown fewer than 20 times in their last two games combined.
The advanced metrics aren’t really at play here because the Bucs have changed their identity from a Baker Mayfield-centric offense to a team that looks to run first, second, and third.
The Bucs’ defense has looked leaky at times this season, and the Bears’ passing game has evolved into one of the more potent in the league. This is a case of a team with a clearly better roster at home against a clearly flawed Bucs roster. Tampa Bay will need to throw the ball at some point, and they will continue to make mistakes. The Bears at home in primetime are the side. Let’s roll with one of the hottest teams in the league.
Best Bet: Chicago Bears -6
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo heads to Minnesota on Monday night. The Bills have the highest scoring offense in the league, but Minnesota possesses a defense that isn’t just getting lucky with turnovers. The Vikings may have the best defensive unit in the league and they get to play at home.
Minnesota is first in the league in defensive EPA per drop back and defensive passing success rate. They are the best in NFL in disrupting their opponents’ passing attack. The Vikings are solid against the run, but not elite. The Bills offense may lean on James Cook and Josh Allen, but Minnesota has been able to stand up to tough ground games.
When Minnesota has the ball, they get to face a Bills defense that has struggled to get off the field this year. The Bills defense is one of the least efficient defense in the league. They allow a 47.2% offensive success rate. That’s 29th in the league. They also allow opponents to convert nearly 50% of third down attempts.
Minnesota may be without starting quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury and may sit out. His status has yet to be announced. If Murray has to miss the game, the Vikings will turn to backup Carson Wentz. Wentz was solid in relief early in the year. He brought the Vikings back against the Packers in Week 1 and won a game in a monsoon in Week 2.
The Vikings are also one of the few teams in the NFL with a true homefield advantage. Their stadium gets loud when it needs to, and we’ve seen a lot of unusual bounces work in the VIkings’ favor over the past two seasons. This is bad defense vs. good defense and the bad defense has to travel. Minnesota is the play, but wait to see what happens with Kyler Murray.
Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings +3.5
New York Giants
The New York Giants currently sit in first place in the NFC East and have to go on the road to Philadelphia.
The advanced metrics don’t care for the Eagles, but they are making a change at quarterback. Philadelphia will start Joe Milton on Sunday. Milton has been a pre-season legend for a few seasons because he has a cannon for an arm and can generate yards with his legs. Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee couldn’t throw a ball more than 15 yards with any accuracy and he couldn’t escape the pocket. Milton solves both of those problems and he’s been with the Eagles for a few weeks now. That’s long enough to get up to speed on the offense and for the coaching staff to figure out what he can and can’t do.
The Eagles defense has been solid for the most part, but has suffered under poor quarterback play and a limited ground game. Turnovers and losing the time of possession battle consistently forced the Philadelphia defense into bad positions.
Milton adds new dimensions to the offense. He should force opponents to respect the deep ball and worry about his legs. That could open up the play action passing game and prevent the Giants from stacking the box against the Eagles ground game.
Philadelphia isn’t nearly as bad as their record, they should have a few of their skill position players able to play, and the change at quarterback should jump start the offense. The Giants have overachieved, and could struggle against a team that can defend the pass and make JJ McCarthy uncomfortable in the pocket.
Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5
The Sports Gambling Podcast
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