Wasn’t Week Zero just a few weeks ago? We already have our first (terrible) college football playoff rankings, and the schedule claims that it’s already Week 10. Bowl season is just over a month away. However, we still have an awesome slate of games for the upcoming week, and there are a few juicy plays on the board. It’s time to dig into our college football betting analysis for Week 10.
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How should I bet on college football this weekend? Week 10 Analytics & Trends
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Missouri Tigers
The Missouri Tigers host the Texas Longhorns in Columbia, MO, this weekend. This could be a dreamcrusher for the Longhorns. Texas already has two losses, and now it has to travel to Columbia as the favorite. Good luck. Columbia is a weird travel spot for most Big 12 teams and has been a house of horrors at times.
Missouri has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation this year, but they’re taking on a top rushing defense on Saturday. However, Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons has thrown 16 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Missouri can pass the ball and should find the soft spots in the Texas secondary.
Where the matchup gets interesting is when Texas has the ball. Missouri has a very efficient defense, and they’ve only allowed 2.9 yards per carry against. The Tigers are also capable of generating turnovers. Missouri has a +7 turnover differential this year, and Texas quarterback Arch Manning can play loose with the ball.
Missouri is at home against a team that can be leaky against the pass and struggles to sustain drives. Let’s ride with these Tigers and get the Longhorns out of the College Football Playoff.
Best Bet: Missouri Tigers +2.5
San Jose State
San Jose State welcomes Northern Illinois in a conference game. NIU might be the worst team in the FBS.
The Huskies have allowed 433.8 yards per game on defense. They allow over 200 yards per game on the ground. Teams have averaged almost 40 points per game against NIU this season. This defense is really poor.
Northern Illinois can move the ball a little on offense, but they struggle to score. The Huskies only complete 55% of their drives in the red zone. San Jose State can be leaky at times on defense, but they have a +2 turnover differential. The Huskies have been known to hand the ball to the other team.
Northern Illinois has been really rough this year, and the travel to San Jose, CA doesn’t help. The Spartans need two more wins to become bowl eligible. They’re going to show up for this one and run the Huskies off the field.
Best Bet: San Jose State -10
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
UCLA Bruins
UCLA travels to Minneapolis with a number next to their name and a zero in their record. The Bruins are overdue for a loss, and Minnesota has been stacking upset wins this year. This one looks ripe for another upset.
The Minnesota defense has shown it can slow down its opponents’ ground game. The Golden Gophers only allow opponents to average 3.9 yards per carry on the ground. UCLA is also still starting a backup quarterback, so they can’t really throw consistently. If Minnesota stacks the box and dares UCLA to throw, they could keep the Bruins’ offense bottled up.
UCLA has the most efficient defense in the country, while Minnesota struggles offensively. However, this is where the home field advantage will come into play. The Golden Gophers will need to find a way to move the ball, play the field position game, and take advantage where they can. Getting downhill with the running game may not be an option, but Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey has played a bit better at home than away.
This should be a grind, and Minnesota has shown it can compete in these spots. Let’s roll with the Golden Gophers catching points at home against a team that’s overdue for a clunker.
Best Bet: Minnesota Golden Gophers +5.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The West Virginia Mountaineers travel all the way to Lubbock, TX this weekend. West Virginia is catching 16.5 points as a heavy underdog.
The Mountaineers have done a great job of generating offense on the ground this year. Running back Cam Cook and quarterback Michael Hawkins have both done a lot of damage this year, but Texas Tech has the athletes to slow down the West Virginia ground game. However, Hawkins can also throw a little bit, and the Red Raiders have averaged over 280 passing yards allowed this year. West Virginia should be able to move the ball through the air and stay in this one.
The West Virginia defense is one of the worst in the country. Limiting opponents to a field goal is an accomplishment. West Virginia has allowed opponents to average over 300 yards per game through the air, but Texas Tech struggles to throw. This may not be a complete disaster, but Texas Tech will score.
All the Mountaineers have to do is stay within 17 points. West Virginia can score against just about anyone, and has the offensive firepower to stay in a track meet. This is a case of…too many points.
Best Bet: West Virginia Mountaineers +16.5
The College Football Experience
For more analysis of every college football game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to The College Football Experience. Colby Dant and Moneyline Mac talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college football picks every week!
