The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series will crown a champion this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. It’ll be a day of firsts, and lasts at the same time. It’s the final race with Craftsman as the title sponsor; they’ll once again leave the series, which will be sponsored by FedEx Freight in 2027. It’ll be the first time a driver has won in the Chase format for the trucks. It’s also going to be a first-time champion, as two drivers remain in the battle for the crown. Let’s dive into that battle, and the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series picks, odds, and best bets for the Championship Race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Kaden Honeycutt and Layne Riggs are those two Truck Series drivers with a shot at the title. Honeycutt enters the race with a 20-point advantage. We all know how quickly 20 points can disappear, however. One thing Honeycutt’s team has done that is extremely smart: they’ve entered Corey Heim in another TriCon truck. The idea being Heim will be the favorite in this race. If he can win, he keeps extra win points away from Layne Riggs.
Riggs can win the title with a near-perfect day by scoring 75 of the 76 possible points. If he does that, it doesn’t matter what Honeycutt does. Honeycutt holds the tiebreaker (more wins in the Chase). The green flag is at 6:18 ET on Friday night on FS1.
Odds to Win NASCAR Truck Series Championship Race
Corey Heim +250
Layne Riggs +300
Kaden Honeycutt +400
Chandler Smith +850
Ty Majeski +1000
Christian Eckes +1600
Nicholas Sanchez +1800
Gio Ruggiero +2000
Grant Enfinger +2500
Connor Mosack +2800
Ben Rhodes +4000
Tyler Ankrum +4000
Daniel Hemric +5000
Landen Lewis +5000
Parker Kligerman +5000
Jake Garcia +6500
Stewart Friesen +6500
Tanner Gray +6500
Justin Haley +8000
Spencer Davis +8000
Leland Honeyman +10000
Matt Crafton +10000
Tyler Reif +10000
Cole Butcher +15000
Corey LaJoie +20000
Andres Perez de Lara +25000
Brenden Queen +25000
Connor Hall +25000
Kris Wright +50000
Spencer Boyd +75000
Clayton Green +100000
Frankie Muniz +100000
Josh Reaume +100000
Mason Massey +100000
Mini Tyrrell +100000
NASCAR Truck Series Championship Race Best Bets
Daniel Hemric Over Ben Rhodes (-120)
Daniel Hemric has been a fan of Homestead-Miami Speedway in the truck series. The driver of the #19 McAnally-Hilgamann Chevrolet has finished better in each of his four career starts at the track. The last two times he’s visited here, he’s finished in fifth place both times. In his last five O’Reilly Series starts, Hemric has finished top four four times. This season, on comparable tracks, Hemric has finishes of sixth at Charlotte. Fourth at Kansas, 13th at Michigan, 11th at Charlotte-spring, seventh at Texas, and ninth at Darlington.
Ben Rhodes only has two finishes better than 10th place in his nine starts here at Homestead-Miami. He largely struggled at the same comparison tracks, finishing 21st at Charlotte, fifth at Kansas, 21st at Michigan, fourth at Charlotte-Spring, fifth at Texas, and 36th at Darlington. That makes Hemric four of six this season against Rhodes on the comparison tracks. My friends at wintherace.info ran 200k simulations of this race. In those sims, Hemric wins this head-to-head 62.3% of the time. That leaves his fair market value at -165.
Kaden Honeycutt Top 3 Finish (+110)
This race should have three trucks that are clearly the stars of this race. The two heavyweight title contenders, Layne Riggs and Kaden Honeycutt, along with reigning champion Corey Heim. Honeycutt only has a 20-point lead over Riggs coming into this race. That means he can’t coast around like Kyle Larson this weekend and wrap it up. Honeycutt has to show up and win this championship. I have another idea on who I think wins it, but whoever of the three wins, I think Honeycutt will be one of the top three at the end.
In his three starts, he’s progressively gotten better results in each. He’s not yet been at the level of equipment he’s now driving, and seeing as it was a year and a half since the last race here, he’s come a long way as a driver in that time. Over the last eight Truck Series races, Honeycutt has five podium finishes. He dominated Charlotte, leading 111 laps on his way to the win. He led another 85 at Kansas, finishing third. At Michigan, he finished second, as he did in the Charlotte spring race. Texas was another third-place finish, and fourth at Darlington was his only “comp” track race he didn’t finish in the top three. In WTR’s simulations, Honeycutt finishes top three more than anyone other than Corey Heim.
Corey Heim to Win (+250)
He’s the heavy favorite for a reason. Corey Heim has been a generational Truck Series driver. Although he’s only run part-time this season, he’s won three of the eight races he’s competed in and finished second another time. Notably, though, he won at the 2-mile Michigan International Speedway and at Darlington, which is very similar to Homestead.
The 2025 Craftsman Truck Series Champion won 11 races last season, including three 1.5-mile tracks and Darlington. Here at Homestead in the spring, he led 78 laps and swept the stages. Heim has won five of the last six stages at Homestead, finishing second in the other one. This weekend, he gets his first win at the track.
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