College Football Picks Week 10 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) for College Football Picks Week 10, starting with Miami at Notre Dame before a road trip to the Holy War. Michigan State plus 13.5 makes all three lock cards, and Utah minus 4.5 leads the consensus card.
The Holy War Road Trip And A Two-Point Disaster
Last week went well. The guys went 9-3 on their locks collectively and 5-2 in the college contest, and that came even with Boston College on the card, a team that scored exactly two points (on a blocked extra point) in a 47-2 game against Duke. Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) heard on another show that 47-2 had never happened before, so at least the pick made history. This week the travel gets silly. Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) do their VSiN show from Circa on Friday night, then drive 424 miles through the night to Salt Lake City for BYU and Utah. Kramer pegs the drive at about five and a half hours, which puts Sean barging into Colby’s room right around 5 AM local.
Miami Plus The Points At Notre Dame
A Notre Dame superfan from the LA stand-up scene joins the show for the game of the week, Miami at Notre Dame. The Irish lay 5.5 with a 57.5 total and a -215 moneyline, and Colby Dant was surprised the number got that big. He has picked Notre Dame to win this game all year, but at 5.5 he takes Miami and sees a 24-21 type of finish. Sean Green lands in the same spot. He thinks the line looks trappy, but Notre Dame is missing linebacker Drake Bowen and D.J. McKinney, so he takes Miami plus 5.5 and pictures something like 31-27, with Notre Dame winning and the Canes covering.
Ryan Kramer goes the other way and lays it with Notre Dame. His case is simple: North Carolina just laid out the blueprint for slowing Miami, and Notre Dame can follow it. He also thinks Mensah is a little overrated, which nobody else buys given 2,196 yards and 22 touchdowns. The guest is all in on the over and thinks the Irish win, but he would not promise a cover, even at 9-1 attending games under Freeman. CJ Carr is +1150 for the Heisman, and a win here hands him a late-season moment against two favorites with shorter odds. For the record, the guest’s new show theme song calls Kramer kind of a dick.
The Playoff Committee Gets Torched
Colby Dant also cut a mock campaign ad against Josh Pate, urging fans to vote for college football playoff expansion on November 7th, and the first committee rankings gave him plenty of ammo. Miami sits at No. 1, Texas at seven, and Florida made the board at 24 despite three 20-point losses. Colby has UCLA at No. 1 instead, because the Bruins have not played an FCS team and he thinks they have beaten everyone by double digits. Kramer settles it with the betting numbers. Miami is 5-3 ATS, Utah is 7-1 and UCLA is 8-0, beating the number by an average of 12.3 points. Only one team in the country has a better margin to the spread, and it is Wake Forest, the team Colby says the committee keeps burying.
Thursday And Friday Night Dogs
UTSA opens the week laying 6.5 at Florida Atlantic with a total in the 72 range. Colby Dant takes the Owls as a Thursday home dog, because UTSA has North Texas on deck and Jeff Traylor’s teams tend to hiccup against weaker conference opponents. Sean Green lays it with the Roadrunners. They come off a bye, Owen McCown is completing a career-high 69.5% of his passes, and FAU has the second-worst rush defense in FBS. Kramer sides with the home dog, mostly over a humidity argument Sean would not entertain. Then Friday turns into a dog parade. Virginia Tech catches 5.5 at SMU, and all three guys take the Hokies, who lead the nation with 77 tackles for loss.
Nebraska lays 4.5 in Champaign, and Colby wants Illinois to win outright now that its starting quarterback is back. Sean calls the Illini live on the moneyline, because a conference road favorite on a short week makes no sense to him. Out west, Nevada catches 9.5 against New Mexico with a 37.5 total, and the guys love the home dog. Colby notes it is New Mexico’s third road game in four weeks and that the Lobos only won 24-22 in this matchup last year. Kramer, meanwhile, breaks from the group on TCU at Arizona. Colby and Sean lay the 9.5 with the Wildcats, but Kramer takes TCU because nobody has lit up that defense.
Mizzou At Home And The Holy War
The easiest call on the board might be Missouri catching 2.5 at home against Texas. Colby Dant thinks Austin Simmons is the better quarterback in this game, and Sean Green says he cannot take Arch Manning as a road favorite against a good conference team. Kramer is also on Missouri. UCLA laying 5.5 at Minnesota splits the room, though. Colby takes the Gophers and expects a rock fight, close to 9-6, while Sean and Kramer lay it with the Bruins. Sean also holds a UCLA ticket to win the conference at 200-1, and Kramer points out that UCLA ranks first in adjusted EPA per play on defense.
Then comes the Holy War. Utah lays 4.5 against BYU with a 48.5 total, and the guys are unanimous on the Utes, because BYU running back LJ Martin is out and the offense gets one-dimensional without him. Duke is also a three-way lay at NC State, since Manny Diaz is 4-0 against the Wolfpack and the new-coach bump already cashed last week. Alabama catches 5.5 at LSU, so Colby and Sean take the Tide while Kramer lays it with LSU despite Lane Kiffin’s 1-9 record against top 10 teams. Colby and Sean also grab Oregon plus the points at Ohio State and Kentucky plus 6.5 at Tennessee, and Kramer lays both.
College Football Picks Week 10 Locks And The Contest Card
Air Force getting 3.5 against Army might be the sharpest play on the board. Colby notes the Falcons rank 23rd in yards per game on defense while Army sits at 111th. Michigan laying 13.5 to Michigan State looks absurd to all three guys, because Michigan has struggled to score and has Oregon on deck. Iowa catches 2.5 at Northwestern, and Sean leans on Kirk Ferentz going 53-42 ATS as a dog since 2003. For locks, Colby Dant goes Utah -4.5, Arizona -9.5, Air Force +3.5 and Michigan State +13.5, with Nevada at +310 as his dog. Sean Green takes Nevada +9.5, Air Force, Michigan State and Iowa, then adds Kentucky at +198.
Ryan Kramer locks Missouri, Utah, Michigan State and West Virginia plus 16.5 at Texas Tech, then grabs Iowa on the moneyline as his dog. His teaser runs Air Force to 9.5, Tennessee to a pick and Ohio State to -1.5. The seven-game contest card is Utah -4.5, Air Force +3.5, Missouri +2.5, Arizona -9.5, Michigan State +13.5, Iowa +2.5 and West Virginia +16.5. West Virginia made it partly as a hedge for Moneyline Mac, who is headed to Lubbock and sits on the Mountaineers moneyline. The bonus play is a Friday night parlay with Illinois and Nevada on the moneyline.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Holy War Road Trip
5:48 Dan O’Carter on Notre Dame
7:53 Miami vs. Notre Dame Picks
17:48 Colby’s Campaign Ad Against Josh Pate
21:42 College Football Playoff Rankings
36:21 DBettis Super Chat & Holy War Drive
41:29 UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Picks
45:48 Virginia Tech vs. SMU Picks
50:23 Nebraska vs. Illini Picks
53:17 New Mexico vs. Nevada Picks
56:37 TCU vs. Arizona Picks
59:27 Texas vs. Missouri Picks
1:02:39 UCLA vs. Minnesota Picks
1:07:30 BYU vs. Utah Picks
1:16:16 Duke vs. NC State Picks
1:19:53 Alabama vs. LSU Picks
1:23:58 Oregon vs. Ohio State Picks
1:27:49 Kentucky vs. Tennessee Picks
1:36:05 Georgia vs. Ole Miss Picks
1:38:42 Air Force vs. Army Picks
1:41:13 Michigan State vs. Michigan Picks
1:44:42 Iowa vs. Northwestern Picks
1:50:02 West Virginia vs. Texas Tech Picks
1:55:40 Locks, Dogs & Teases
2:02:08 Consensus Picks Card
2:06:04 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
