It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 10 of the College Football season. We’re deep into it now. Teams are getting desperate to stake their claim in the College Football Playoffs, grab that last bowl eligibility win, or to just play spoiler. As we settle in to the cooler November weather, it’s time for the real dawgs to come out and play! Let’s head into The Upset Factory and build our College Football upset parlay for Week 10.
Last week was a real sweat on our +480 dog in the North Carolina Tar Heels. Bill Belichick and his boys gave it their all and came up just short. The rest of our card wasn’t stellar as K State and Purdue didn’t show up. We’ll reload and get back at it again this week!
Illinois (+170)
Let’s kick things off Friday night in Champaign, Illinois. With High School Football wrapping up around the country, we get the return of some Friday night matchups. The Nebraska Cornhuskers head on the road after a third straight week of blowing a lead late and losing a game to drop to 5-3 on the year. The Illinois Illini are riding a three game win streak as they enter this game at 5-3 as well. I was a bit shocked when I saw this line come out as the Huskers favored.
Illinois has the clear coaching advantage in this game with Bret Bielema. Bielema has also historically owned Nebraska in his matchups against the school. He’s gone 3-1 as the head coach at Illinois against the Huskers. When he was the Wisconsin head coach he won two of the three matchups with the team. This Illinois team is finding their way and they have good coaching. Nebraska is a lost program with terrible coaching. Give me the Illini.
Missouri (+120)
The #19 Missouri Tigers host the #10 Texas Longhorns Saturday morning in Columbia. This isn’t the first time we’ve taken Missouri as the home dogs against a higher ranked team this season. Back in Week 5 we played them against the Florida Gators, and they came home for us by dominating the Gators 45-17. Outside of a 31-3 stinker put up by the Tigers a few weeks ago against Ole Miss, this Tigers team has been strong in 2026. They held strong with Mississippi State on the road and whooped up Texas A&M at home.
Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns have had their share of struggles this year. They barely survived Ohio State early in the year, after being down big late in the game. Once again, they barely survived an upset attempt by Tennessee in Knoxville. Oklahoma got the best of them, as did Florida. Ole Miss came close to taking them down two weeks ago. It’s been one close win after another. Another thing that really stands out to me. Arch Manning only has three career road wins as a starter. Two came last year, both needing overtime. The other was Tennessee this season. Overall he’s lacked on the road, Missouri’s home field advantage will be the difference this week.
Kentucky (+205)
Kentucky is another team that’s been good to us this year. Back in Week 7 they pulled off the +210 upset over the Oklahoma Sooners on the road in Norman. These Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in all of College Football this season. They keep being asked to do more, and they keep delivering. After a walloping at home by Alabama early on, this team turned around and hasn’t looked back. They upset Texas A&M on the road. Beat LSU at home in overtime. Went to Norman and dispatched the Sooners. Two weeks ago they easily handled Vanderbilt. Nome they are coming off a bye week, a chance to rest and get prepared for a major showdown in Knoxville, Tennessee against the Volunteers.
Tenneseee has struggled a bit. Losing to Texas earlier this season in a perfect spot at home that they should have won in. They are coming off back to back losses against Alabama and South Carolina. It just feels like the wind is out of their sails. Now they look up and a really good Wildcats team is staring them in the face. Let’s keep riding the Kentucky express to another victory.
