It’s time to take our weekly look ahead to Week 9, as we look all the way back to the schedule release in March. So much has changed since the NFL schedule was released. That includes the betting lines. Let’s take our weekly dive into the biggest line moves and what the market is telling us for Week 9.
Last week the books were right on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The line moved across seven after the Jaguars’ success and the Colts beginning their fire sale. We identified the Jaguars as a great spot and easily cashed there. The movement was incorrect on the Buccaneers, dropping them from -4.5 to -1.5 favorites. They easily handled the Falcons in a crazy monsoon for another hit for the article. Philadelphia swung across zero after their injuries. We took the Eagles, which looked good early, until they remembered who they are. The movement was correct in this game as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) to (-7.5)
Thursday Night Football in Baltimore has seen the biggest swing we’ve seen this season. Not only did the favorite change as the line crossed zero. It crossed a field goal both directions, and then went to over a touchdown in favor of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The reason for this 11-point swing across four key numbers is, first of all, the Ravens’ quarterback situation. Lamar Jackson hits IR and needs surgery on his thumb. Then, stud backup quarterback Tyler Huntley suffered a toe injury. He’ll need an MRI, and his status is unknown.
Now Baltimore will either be starting a banged-up Huntley, or more likely an undrafted rookie free agent in Joe Fagnano. On a short week, it’s going to make for a tough hill for Fagnano. The bigger problem, this isn’t some bad team they are playing. Jacksonville has arguably been the best team in the NFL this season, and they’ve been mowing teams down. For a number to shift this much is very scary, but I’m all aboard the Jag Wagon again this year; I’ll ride with the hot hand over the hurt one.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Jaguars -7.5
Houston Texans (+1.5) to (-4.5)
The disappointment bowl will take place at SoFi Stadium Sunday afternoon. No team has been more disappointing than the Los Angeles Chargers this season. They still haven’t won a game, and haven’t really come that close. Houston is sitting at just 2-5 despite looking solid this year. That’s how this spread has changed. Jumping across zero, moving Houston from the dogs to the favorites.
At this point, I’m done hoping and wishing and praying on the Chargers. They are 0-5-1 on the year ATS, just as disappointing as their real record. Houston has played every game close, even against some of the best teams. Bonus points for Houston as they are fresh off their bye week. I’ll trust the movement again in this one.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Texans -4.5
New York Giants (+5.5) to (-2.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles may just get a weekly spot in this article now. They obviously were expected to be good. They’ve not been good, and are the most beat-up team in the league. New York has been an interesting team as well. They’ve had their fair share of injuries and quarterback changes. They seem to have found stability in JJ McCarthy, question mark?
An NFC East game, in Lincoln Financial Field. Does JJ McCarthy warrant a swing of this magnitude? Between him and the other injuries, retirements, and trades. As gross as it is, I do think it does. My one caveat is if Philadelphia makes the smart decision to start Joe Milton III, I’m all in on Philadelphia. Until then, give me the other side.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Giants -2.5
