NFL Prop Bets Week 8 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) break down their NFL prop bets for Week 8, and all three guys get a piece of Ja’Kobi Lane in Bills vs. Ravens. CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) of Bottom Line Bombs joins and climbs an Eli Rairdon receptions ladder all the way to 28 to 1.
The NFL Prop Bets Week 8 Card Starts In Arizona
The guys spend the open on the college podcast wars, with Colby going after Josh Pate and the Cover 3 podcast taking shots at The College Football Experience. Then the props start. Ryan Kramer leads with a banger: Michael Wilson to hit 100 receiving yards against Dallas. The Cowboys are still bad against the receiver, and the idea that this pass defense got fixed is a misconception. CJ Sullivan backs it up, because Wilson is still getting the targets and the quiet weeks came against defenses that brought more pressure.
Sean Green stays in the same game with a different Cardinals receiver, Kendrick Bourne over 32.5 receiving yards. Bourne has 126 yards over his last three games. That total includes a nine-yard dud last week. Jalen Brooks, the sneaky ladder play CJ Sullivan was on, is now hurt and could miss a decent chunk of the season, so those looks have to go somewhere. The Eagles receivers also had a ton of success against this Dallas secondary. At 32.5, the number feels way too low.
CJ Sullivan grabbed the best number of the segment before the market moved. Chase Brown opened at 49.5 rushing yards, then jumped to 59.5 after the Simmons trade to Chicago. The over is still the play. Brown flips a switch every year once Week 8 arrives, and now Cincinnati is a 12.5-point favorite over a Tennessee defense allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns. The 100-yard rung sat at +550 when the show taped, and two touchdowns paid +370. With roughly 83% of Bengals touchdowns coming through the air, the ground game is due.
Baltimore And Buffalo Look Like A Shootout
Ryan Kramer wants a piece of Bills and Ravens, and the target is DJ Moore over 55.5 yards in his return. This Baltimore defense has been a buffet for alpha receivers. Carnell Tate, Drake London, Tee Higgins and CeeDee Lamb all had big days, and even Alec Pierce found 61 yards. Buffalo looks like a different offense with Moore on the field, so the number seems silly. CJ Sullivan adds that Kyle Hamilton has been awful this year. Sean Green also chips in Rashod Bateman over 24.5 with a 70-yard rung at +880, betting on Lamar Jackson finding Bateman on scrambles.
Then the whole table piles onto Ja’Kobi Lane, who has played the last two games and now gets Lamar Jackson throwing instead of Snoop Huntley. CJ Sullivan lays out the profile. Lane is 13th in EPA per target with a 70% catch rate. Buffalo gives up the fourth-most receptions to receivers and the most touchdowns to the position with 11. The base play is over 2.5 receptions, and the ladder runs four catches at +230, five at +531, six at +1180 and seven at 22-1. Ryan Kramer went yards instead, grabbing 50 at +290 before it got bet down to +210. People know.
Tight Ends Eat Against The Lions
Sean Green slips in a bonus first: A.J. Brown under 4.5 receptions, bet the day before. Brown has three receptions in three games, plus a high ankle sprain and a new knee issue. Not practicing on a Thursday is rarely a good sign. The real prop is T.J. Hockenson over 38.5 receiving yards against a Detroit defense allowing over 100 yards per game to tight ends. CJ Sullivan jumps on, because the Lions have allowed the most targets to the position at 73 along with 56 receptions. Their opponents also throw at a 65.8% rate. Hockenson ranks first among tight ends in targets per route run, and Kyler Murray sits 28th in air yards per attempt.
Patriots, Dolphins And The Rest Of The Board
CJ Sullivan heads to South Beach, where New England comes off 10 days of rest after a loss. Miami allows the third-most receiving yards and fourth-most receptions to running backs. So the pick is Rhamondre Stevenson over 17.5 receiving yards. Sean Green takes the other side of the field with Malik Willis over 180.5 passing yards, a number that is comically low. New England allows 230.3 passing yards per game, and six of the seven quarterbacks it has faced cleared 184.5. Willis is also 4-2 to this number this season. Too low.
Ryan Kramer goes under on Bijan Robinson rush attempts, 18.5 at -112 and 15.5 at +160. In the last five games against a Todd Bowles defense, Bijan logged 10, 12, 13, 12 and 19 carries. Four of five stayed under both numbers. The angle is that you attack Bowles with the back in the passing game, so carries turn into catches. CJ Sullivan likes Blake Corum over 39.5 rushing yards, since Sean McVay is feeding Corum after Kyren Williams ran his mouth. The Chargers allow the second-most rushing yards on the road and the second-most rushing touchdowns, which makes Corum’s anytime score at +165 live.
Sean Green also likes Michael Mayer over 24.5 receiving yards against a Jets defense that just gave up 86 to Greg Dulcich. Brock Bowers is nursing a calf, Kirk Cousins loves his tight ends, and Mayer has gone 5-2 over this number. Next, Ryan Kramer takes Bo Nix over 202.5 passing yards. Every quarterback to face the Chiefs has cleared it except Nix in Week 1, and Sean Payton should dial up plenty of dink and dunk. Sean Green adds Gunnar Helm over 18.5 receiving yards against the Bengals. Then comes a Sunday night bonus: Stefon Diggs over 4.5 receptions at +132 against Cooper DeJean.
Ladders And The Degen Only Plays
The pick’em card stacks three highers: Malik Willis over 174.5 passing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions and Ja’Kobi Lane over 4.5 targets. A $100 entry returns $595. Then the ladders come out. CJ Sullivan climbs Eli Rairdon receptions, the 6’6″ rookie from Notre Dame, because Miami allows the second-most receptions to tight ends and New England has gone double tight. Rairdon has 10 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown over his last three games. The base line is 1.5. Three catches pays +226, four pays 6-1, five pays +1480 and six is 28-1.
Sean Green ladders Justin Herbert rushing yards against a Rams defense second in rush yards allowed to quarterbacks. The Chargers have no offensive line and backs who want no part of running the football. Herbert also ran for 66 yards against the Eagles coming out of a bye. The rungs go 30 yards at +154, 40 at +320, 50 at +630 and 60 at 10-1, and the pick is 70 yards at 15-1. Ryan Kramer flips the Bijan angle into a receiving ladder. Bijan has topped 40 receiving yards in four of the last five, with games of 43, 54, 82 and 100. It starts at 40 yards for 2-1 and climbs to 80 at +1260.
The Degen only plays go big. CJ Sullivan pairs Ja’Kobi Lane anytime at +350 with T.J. Hockenson anytime at +285 and two Chase Brown touchdowns at +370, roughly 80-1, before swapping Brown out for Eli Rairdon. The moonshot asks Rairdon, Hockenson and Lane to score twice each for 48,000-1. Sean Green builds off the ladder with Herbert 70 rushing yards, a Herbert touchdown and a Chargers win for 105-1. Last time Baltimore and Buffalo met, they put up 81 points. So Ryan Kramer takes Lane and Moore to score, then adds R.J. Harvey and Darnell Washington, who you have to stop making better than 3-1.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:51 Colby Versus Josh Pate Podcast War
9:12 Michael Wilson Against the Cowboys
10:23 Kendrick Bourne Over 32 and a Half Receiving Yards
11:32 Chase Brown Over 59 and a Half Rushing Yards
14:07 DJ Moore Over 55 and a Half Yards
16:58 Ja’Kobi Lane Receptions Ladder
19:35 A.J. Brown Under Four and a Half Receptions
20:38 T.J. Hockenson Over 38 and a Half Receiving Yards
22:09 Ja’Kobi Lane 50 Yards
25:57 Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards
31:32 Malik Willis Passing Yards
32:33 Bijan Under 18 and a Half Rush Attempts
34:44 Blake Corum Rushing Yards
37:30 Michael Mayer Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
38:37 Bo Nix Over 202 and a Half
40:41 Gunnar Helm Over 18 and a Half Receiving Yards
42:06 Diggs Against Cooper DeJean
43:57 Underdog Pick ‘Em
48:11 Eli Rairdon Receptions Ladder
49:59 Justin Herbert 70 Rushing Yards
52:37 Bijan Robinson Receiving Ladder
54:26 Touchdown Parlays
1:00:23 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
