NFL Prop Bets Week 7 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) welcome CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) of Bottom Line Bombs to break down NFL prop bets for Week 7, with National Tight Ends Day driving most of the card, right down to a 131-1 Nate Adkins and Matthew Hibner touchdown parlay.
The Ladders Cash And Puka Nacua Leaves Practice
The Week 7 props show opens with a victory lap, and the ladders earned it. The Jahan Dotson ladder ran all the way to the top rung at 15 to 1. Ryan Kramer’s Malik Nabers premium ladder also reached the top. CJ Sullivan, in studio and playing through a questionable back, had a Trey Tucker ladder that cashed on the last play of the game. Sean Green came within one leg of the degen-only parlay, hitting Dotson’s yards and Kirk Cousins 300-plus passing yards before a Dallas Goedert touchdown call missed. Then came the bad news. Puka Nacua left practice with a calf injury, and if he doesn’t practice Friday, Ryan Kramer says you have to assume he’s out.
Tight End Day Headlines The NFL Prop Bets Week 7 Card
Sunday is National Tight Ends Day, so the guys built most of the card around the position. Sean Green kicked it off with Foster Moreau over 1.5 receptions at +125. Moreau has two catches in five of his six games. Dalton Schultz is also dealing with a quad injury, which leaves Moreau with a decent snap share and an easy path to two grabs. It might be exactly two catches, and that’s fine, because two is all you need to cash a plus-money number. This is a cheap over that should clear even in a quiet game.
Ryan Kramer went to Pittsburgh with Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown at +280, and the angle is half handicap, half holiday. Freiermuth’s birthday is October 25, so it’s a birthday touchdown on Tight Ends Day. The Saints are very bad against the tight end and have given up multiple touchdowns to multiple tight ends in the same game. Then the slot data made it better. Freiermuth lines up in the slot 60% of the time compared to 19% for Darnell Washington, more than any Steelers pass catcher, and New Orleans is much worse against tight ends in the slot. He has four touchdowns this year, including two against the Colts, so his two-touchdown price of 22 to 1 is worth a sprinkle.
Sean Green cut the line with Darnell Washington over 2.5 catches. Washington is coming off a six-target game, and the Saints rank second in the league in receptions allowed to tight ends. CJ Sullivan wanted Freiermuth’s receptions anyway and got them, over 3.5 catches at +140. That price sounds insane when New Orleans has allowed 42 receptions, 455 yards and three touchdowns to the position. Play them both. If you want a Washington long shot on top of it, his two-touchdown price sits at 27 to 1.
The only defense worse than New Orleans against tight ends is Detroit, by a mile. The Lions have allowed nine more tight end receptions than the Saints while playing one fewer game. So CJ Sullivan grabbed Tucker Kraft over 4.5 receptions at even money, with room to ladder up to seven or eight catches, and noted Kraft’s anytime touchdown at +185. Ryan Kramer went big game hunting instead with Matthew Hibner anytime touchdown at 11 to 1 against the Bengals. Cincinnati is still terrible against the tight end. Yet the Bengals, 49ers and Vikings are the only teams that haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown this season, which makes them due. Hibner is also back from an injury that kept him out last time.
Bo Nix Gets His Get-Right Spot
CJ Sullivan called it an olive branch to Sean Green: Bo Nix over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +130. Nix hasn’t been pushing the ball downfield, but look at what he just survived. Seattle, San Francisco, the Rams, Jacksonville and Kansas City, all in a row. Now he gets Arizona off 10 days of rest. The Cardinals rank 30th in opponent dropback EPA and 25th in dropback success rate, and they’ve allowed 16 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. Ryan Fitzpatrick also called Nix a coward this week, which only adds fuel. It doubles as a great stepladder if you want the three-touchdown price.
Ryan Kramer tied in with Denver by chopping the tight end unit in half. Nate Adkins and Adam Trautman are both 12 to 1 to score, so half a unit on each turns it into roughly a 6-to-1 bet on either one finding the end zone. Meanwhile Sean Green took a Clutch Parlays favorite, Mason Taylor over 20.5 receiving yards. Taylor went 4 for 33 last week and 3 for 24 the week before, and he still drew six targets with Sadiq back. The Dolphins allow 76.2 yards per game to tight ends, so 20.5 feels very doable.
Not every prop survived the day. Ryan Kramer had Mike Washington 30-plus rushing yards at +165 ready to go. Then Sean Green pointed out Washington went from limited Wednesday with a foot and back issue to a DNP Thursday, so it got scratched and could come back as a Sunday add. The replacement is Zachariah Branch over 1.5 receptions at +192. Branch fumbled twice last game, but Kevin Stefanski kept him in, got him another target and said there won’t be any changes to his role. He has two catches per game over his last three. Ryan Kramer prefers the catches to 6.5 receiving yards at -114, and CJ Sullivan agreed because of the bubble screens.
Metcalf, Warren And The Jalen Brooks Ladder
CJ Sullivan won’t repeat a prop, but last week’s big receptions hit pushed the market down on DK Metcalf. Metcalf has nine targets in four of six games, and Aaron Rodgers has averaged 270 yards and three touchdowns per game over the last month. Both Saints corners are under six feet. Metcalf is 6’4″ and draws the third-best outside matchup of Week 7, so the pick is Metcalf over 4.5 receptions. Sean Green stayed in that game with Jaylen Warren over 63.5 rush yards. The Saints allow the most rushing yards to running backs, Warren carries an 87% snap share, and Sean expects something like 18 or 19 carries.
Ryan Kramer asked the Rams question nobody wants to answer. If Puka misses, who eats? The Rams can lean on 13 personnel and line up tight ends, and Tyler Higbee has 60 or more yards in three of his last four games. The play is Higbee to 50 yards at +150 on the exchanges, with a 60-yard rung coming once there’s enough liquidity. CJ Sullivan likes it with or without Puka. For a moonshot, Polly Howard has 75 to 1 on Higbee for the most tight end receiving yards this weekend.
Then CJ Sullivan handed out an unofficial, uninsured ladder. Jalen Brooks, Arizona’s third receiver, still has a receiving number of 14.5 yards. That’s after he jumped from the practice squad to the starting third receiver once Marvin Harrison was traded. Jacoby trusted him right away with seven targets two weeks ago, and Brooks went 2 for 30 last week. The over is a smash. The ladder runs 30 yards at +235, 40 yards at +439, 50 yards at +770 and 80 yards at 31 to 1. Arizona is the king of garbage time, so get on it before these numbers move.
Sean Green closed the regular props with Ollie Gordon over 48.5 rush yards against a Jets defense that has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs. Even in a blowout script, Gordon went 18 for 88 against the Bengals. If the game stays close, they’ll keep feeding him, because there aren’t many other backs they trust. He’s tough to tackle, too. Gordon has a 22-yard run against the Bengals and a 53-yard run against the Vikings, so one breakaway gets him most of the way there.
A Tight End Underdog Entry And The Big Ladders
The Underdog entry stayed on theme with three tight end legs. Pat Freiermuth and Isaiah Likely each need a first-quarter reception, and Nate Adkins needs to score a touchdown. Likely averages 64 yards a game against a 49.5 line, and the Texans have been susceptible to tight ends all year, so the early catch keeps the theme without paying for yardage. With a 50% move the chains boost, Sean Green’s version pays 39.71. That boost tempted Ryan Kramer enough to gamble on a first-half touchdown for the Adkins leg, because the first-half price is roughly three times bigger.
CJ Sullivan’s ladder goes after the 49ers, who have allowed 42 receptions to running backs, nine more than the next-worst team. That points straight at Bijan Robinson, whose receptions start at 3.5. CJ skips a few rungs: six catches at +260, seven at +487, eight at 9 to 1, nine at +1620 and 10 catches at 26 to 1. Sean Green had the same idea from the yardage side with a Bijan receiving yards ladder, 40 yards at +190 and 80 yards at 16 to 1. Bijan already has a 90-yard receiving game this season, so the top rung is live.
Ryan Kramer went homer again after last week’s ladder worked, and this one is Cam Skattebo rushing yards off a base of 31.5. Tyrone Tracy may be the starter, quote unquote, but Kramer thinks Skattebo is the dude. He’s averaging 20% more yards per carry than anyone else on the roster behind a line that hasn’t run blocked well, and he’s a better pass blocker than Tracy. Houston also has the lowest rate of stuffed runs in the NFL. The rungs are 50 yards at +220, 60 at +320, 80 at +640 and a first 100-yard game at 12 to 1. His anytime touchdown is +350, which CJ Sullivan called insane.
Sean Green doubled up on Ollie Gordon with a rushing yards ladder: 70 yards at +235, 80 at +320, 90 at +490, 100 at 7 to 1 and 110 at +920. Ryan Kramer added another way in by laddering Gordon’s longest rush, since one run that pops open does a lot of the work. Gordon’s numbers hold up well against every back in the league, and Kramer rates him ahead of Jaylen Wright. As Sean put it, he’s the dog down there.
Degen Only Parlays And A Gaelic Football Tip
The degen-only round got loud. Sean Green paired Bijan’s 80-yard receiving rung with Christian McCaffrey nine receptions at 95 to 1. After Mike Evans went out, a receiver didn’t see a target, so Sean expects a heavy dose of McCaffrey, who already had nine catches against Washington. Ryan Kramer kept it simple with two tight ends to score, Nate Adkins and Matthew Hibner, at 131 to 1. CJ Sullivan went one, two, three. That’s one Freiermuth touchdown on his birthday, two for George Kittle, and three passing touchdowns for Baker Mayfield in Carolina, where CJ fades the Panthers as home favorites. That one pays 256 to 1.
Ryan Kramer also slipped in a bonus: J.J. McCarthy 70 rushing yards and a touchdown at 53 to 1. CJ Sullivan called 70 ambitious. Kramer’s read is that the tackles all practiced, so the pressure will come from the middle, and McCarthy spooks easily. When he does, he’s out of there and running for his life. His anytime touchdown goes as high as 7.5 to 1. Then a listener checked in from Ireland with a Cork county final tip in Gaelic football, saying the wrong team is favored and it’s Nemo Rangers all the way. The guys went hunting for a market and only found futures, so Nemo stays a hope for now.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Ladders Hit & Puka Nacua Injury
6:24 Foster Moreau Receptions
7:16 Pat Freiermuth Birthday Touchdown
8:45 Darnell Washington Receptions
9:13 Friermuth Receptions
11:00 Tucker Kraft Receptions
12:05 Matthew Hibner Anytime Touchdown
14:50 Bo Nix Passing Touchdowns
17:02 Nate Adkins & Adam Trautman Tight Ends
19:53 Mason Taylor Receiving Yards
21:25 Mike Washington Rushing Yards
22:36 Zachariah Branch Receptions
24:33 DK Metcalf Receptions
25:44 Jaylen Warren Rush Yards
28:39 Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards
30:26 Jalen Brooks Yards Ladder
33:29 Ali Gordon Rush Yards
34:12 Tight End Underdog Entry
39:57 Bijan Robinson Receptions Ladder
41:28 Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Ladder
42:12 Cam Scatabo Yards Ladder
48:26 Ali Gordon Rush Yards Ladder
49:08 Bijan Robinson & Christian McCaffrey Parlay
51:31 Nate Adkins & Matthew Hibner Touchdowns
53:20 Freiermuth, Kittle & Baker Mayfield Touchdowns
54:14 Vasin Show & Monday Night Watch Along
55:17 J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards & Touchdown
57:41 Gaelic Football: Saints Finbars vs. Nemo Rangers
58:55 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
