College Football rolls into Week 8. This means that we only have seven weeks of regular-season college football left before we get into bowl and playoff season. It’s downhill from here. However, we have a solid sample size on all the FBS teams, and there are a few sides that you’ll want to lock in on this week’s card. Let’s dig into the college football betting analysis for Week 8.
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How should I bet on college football this weekend? Week 8 Analytics & Trends
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
New Mexico Lobos
The New Mexico Lobos catch North Dakota State coming into Albuquerque this weekend. New Mexico has won three in a row, while North Dakota State lost at UNLV and looked mortal against Nevada. Normally, North Dakota State catching points would be a smash play, but this is the Bison at the FBS level. It looks like teams have figured out how to attack North Dakota State, and they don’t look quite as unbeatable in Week 8 as they did in Week Zero.
There are also a few advanced metrics that indicate that New Mexico has a clear advantage. First, New Mexico has a superior defensive success rate and has a much higher havoc rate than North Dakota State does. This means that New Mexico’s defense can limit positive plays and generate explosive plays against a North Dakota State team that lacks FBS-level athleticism.
North Dakota State has a solid defense, but they’re playing on the road, and New Mexico doesn’t really throw the ball much. The strength of the Bison defense is in its secondary. They may not be asked to do much against a New Mexico offense that doesn’t sling it.
Between the travel spot and how rough North Dakota State looked on the road at UNLV, this is a clear spot to take the Lobos.
Best Bet: New Mexico Lobos -4.5
Clemson Tigers
Virginia Tech travels to Death Valley this weekend. Clemson has won seven games in a row against the Hokies. Virginia Tech hasn’t won outright at Clemson since 2007. History is on the side of the Tigers.
Clemson lost to Miami early in the month, but they’ve had a bye week and a tune-up game against Charleston Southern since then. Virginia Tech won’t get their first true bye week until next week.
Virginia Tech has the more explosive offense in this matchup, but their passing game has to play on the road, and Clemson has the sixth-best passing EPA against in the country. The Tigers struggle to stop the run, but they should be able to limit the Virginia Tech offense through the air.
Clemson is inefficient on offense, but they come in healthy and off a tune-up game. The Tigers should be able to limit Virginia Tech’s offense and score enough to get across the finish line. Let’s lock up Clemson laying 2.5 points at home.
Best Bet: Clemson Tigers -2.5
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
BYU Cougars
BYU is off its biggest win in years. The Cougars clipped Notre Dame in Provo, UT last weekend. This week? They have to travel to Orlando for a game against the very shiny Golden Knights of UCF. This is an obvious letdown spot for a BYU team that’s riding high.
There are also a few advanced metrics that indicate that this isn’t a terrible matchup for UCF. First, the Golden Knights have a solid run defense that should be able to slow down BYU’s ground game. The Cougars will still be without star running back LJ Martin, and they don’t really have a passing game that can compensate if they fall behind.
UCF’s offense is at a clear disadvantage against the BYU defense in just about every metric. However, the Golden Knights get to play this in the Bounce House. BYU will have to deal with a crowd that gets loud when the Cougars have the ball, and stays quiet when UCF needs to communicate. All it will take for UCF to stay close is two or three big plays on offense or special teams, and limiting the Cougars on offense. The weird travel, the home environment, and the UCF defense make this a game to fade the Cougars in.
Best Bet: UCF Golden Knights +8.5
Texas Longhorns
Ole Miss travels to Austin this weekend for a matchup against the Texas Longhorns. Texas has lost two straight games, including a home loss against Florida. Arch Manning has struggled at quarterback, and the Longhorns season looks like it’s coming undone. One more loss and the path for Texas to make the college football playoff gets nearly impossible.
Texas has to try to get right against an Ole Miss team that has its own designs on returning to the college football playoff. The biggest difference? Ole Miss has Trinidad Chambliss leading their offense. While Arch Manning might get benched any week now, Chambliss has looked like the best player in college football this year.
Ole Miss ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted passing EPA. Texas ranks 11th in defensive passing EPA. Through six games, Chambliss has thrown for 1,676 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has also been particularly effective at keeping the offense on schedule. Ole Miss has a 53.8% standard-down success rate, ranking fifth nationally. That means the Rebels frequently generate positive plays on first and second down. Texas has a solid pass defense, but they’re not facing UTSA this weekend. Chambliss has shredded just about every defense he’s faced this year. Between Chambliss’ skills and running back Kewan Lacy‘s return, Ole Miss is a brutal matchup for any defense.
Texas has struggled to score in most of their matchups with Power Four teams this year. The Longhorns are at home this weekend, but all it will take is another slow start, and the crowd will start to turn on Texas.
Ole Miss has the best player, and they’re catching 3.5 points. Let’s take Trinidad Chambliss and the 3.5 points this weekend.
Best Bet: Ole Miss Rebels +3.5
The College Football Experience
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