Week 7 of NFL action is here! As we’ve been doing every week, we’re going all the way back to May when the NFL schedule was released. Taking a look at the look-ahead betting lines for each week and fast-forwarding to the current week. What have been the biggest line moves? What is the market telling us? Who should we be betting on? Let’s dive into NFL Week 7’s biggest line moves.
Last week the market was pretty spot on, and so were we with our picks. Jacksonville shifted across zero to favorites against the Texans. We called that one out as a mistake and cashed. Pittsburgh also crossed zero; the books nailed that with a blowout of the Buccaneers, as did we in this article. Pointing out the defense would be the difference. Finally, the Chiefs went over a touchdown favorite against the Chiefs. Another one the books got right.
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) to (-1.5)
The first game for us this week comes to another one that crossed zero. The 4-2, yes, four wins, only two losses, Cleveland Browns have shifted from 2.5-point underdogs to favorites over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has looked like the worst team in the league through five weeks, before pulling off a soul-crushing upset over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6 that led to the firing of General Manager Chris Ballard.
Based on the two teams’ drastically different seasons thus far, it’s very appropriate for the Browns to have shifted to the favorites. I can’t believe this, but Cleveland and Deshaun Watson might be one of the best bets on the entire board this week. Tennessee off a win over a fraudulent Colts team and smelling themselves. Give me all of the Browns (that felt gross to type).
Pick: Follow the Movement – Browns -1.5
Houston Texans (-5.5) to (-10)
CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans elected not to take the bye after their London win. They’ll travel home to take on JJ McCarthy and the New York Giants. This game has gone from a projected 5.5 across the key number of seven to a full 10. Obviously, a lot has changed for both squads. Daniel Jones is out, Jameis Winston is now out, and JJ McCarthy has now been named the starter. Nobody knows who their running backs are, not even John Harbaugh. They’ve been on one hell of a roller coaster ride this season.
This game is simple for me. Is Jaxson Dart 4.5 points better than JJ McCarthy? By far, the answer is yes. Typically, this could be a big letdown spot for Houston. Coming back from a slugfest with a division mate overseas, you can see how they’d overlook this game. But they can’t. At just 2-4, they have to win games, and they have to do it now. This Texans defense will absolutely destroy McCarthy, and this game will be like last week’s Pittsburgh game. Texans roll.
Pick: Follow the Movement- Texans -10
Carolina Panthers (+1.5) to (-3.5)
Another game that has crossed zero is the Carolina Panthers as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina has been one of the most impressive teams this season. Sitting at 3-2, they are fresh off their bye week and rested up. Tampa hasn’t been great this season, and of course, they have been missing Baker Mayfield the past few weeks. Mayfield did return to practice on Wednesday, sparking hope that maybe he’ll see the field this weekend at Carolina, his former team.
The line movement here seems appropriate to have crossed zero and flipped to the home team as the favorites. The biggest question is, did it move too far, also crossing key number three? Either way, I’m backing the home favorite here. Tampa hasn’t been impressive outside of their one win this year. Jalon Daniels has looked okay, but the Panthers have had an extra week to prepare for him. Even if it ends up being Baker, coming back off a thumb injury that’s kept him out this long is tough. Carolina is the better team. We’re going to go with the books and make it a clean sweep of following the line movement for Week 7.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Panthers -3.5
