There’s plenty of value on the board when looking at the NFL Week 7 picks. I went 3-2 last week, and I’m looking to go 5-0 this week. We’ve got plenty of action, which starts with the Patriots at Bears on Thursday night. PS: Take the Bears! However, that’s betting with my heart, so I’m not making it a part of my picks. Here’s a look at my top bets and a parlay that plays!
2026 NFL Week 7 Picks, Bets, And A Parlay That Pays
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Carolina (-3)
The Carolina Panthers host the Tampa Bay Bucs as home favorites and it’s the first game on my NFL Week 7 picks card. Carolina sits at 3-2, currently leading the NFC South. They’re averaging 29.2 points per game and are near the top of the league in passing yards. Bryce Young continues his strong play with efficient throws and plenty of touchdowns. Chuba Hubbard has been great on the ground.
Tampa Bay enters at 1-5 and has struggled on both sides of the ball. Their defense has allowed plenty of points, and the offense has lacked consistency. Part of that is not having Baker Mayfield. Whether he makes his return this week is yet to be seen.
Carolina is 1-1 at home. Tampa Bay has traveled poorly and failed to generate pressure when on the road. The Panthers’ offense tends to exploit weaker secondaries and can control the clock. Bryce Young has been finding Tet McMillan and Jalen Coker often. The Panthers’ defense also creates enough stops to protect leads.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Panthers -3
New York Giants @ Houston Texans (-10)
The New York Giants travel to face the Houston Texans and are currently double-digit underdogs. New York sits at 3-2-1 and leads the NFC East. Jameis Winston has been hit-and-miss. This may be the game we see JJ McCarthy get his first start for the Giants. Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely have been very consistent when the quarterbacks get the ball to them.
Houston sits at 2-4 and has yet to win at home this season. Their home record stands at 0-3. The Texans’ defense has not performed like it did last year and is allowing plenty of yards through the air.
The Texans haven’t been the same team. They’re finally starting to get some momentum going. However, I think they could easily overlook the Giants, especially as 10-point favorites. Double digits are always hard to cover, and as the Saints found out, the Giants can stick around, even when they’re down by a lot. I don’t expect the Giants to win, but I do think they could be annoying enough to stay within 10.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Giants +10
San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons
The undefeated San Francisco 49ers visit the Atlanta Falcons as road favorites. The 49ers are three-point favorites. Sure, they’re on a shorter rest than the Falcons, and they seemed to struggle after Mike Evans left the game on Monday night. However, I had to add this to my NFL Week 7 picks card because the 49ers have been such a solid best bet all season.
Atlanta sits at 2-4 and has lost all three home games this year. Their defense is allowing big plays, especially through the air. The 49ers cover as favorites and tend to travel well against weaker opponents. The Falcons’ secondary has struggled, and Brock Purdy is having a historic season already.
Purdy will exploit matchups, and CMC will not only catch a bunch of passes, but also help control the ground game. The 49ers defense will also pressure the Falcons. Don’t overthink this one.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: 49ers -3
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Total
The Green Bay Packers hit the road to take on the Detroit Lions in what I feel could be a high-scoring divisional matchup. Detroit is averaging 32.8 points per game. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs are all producing very good numbers. On the other side, the Packers are also scoring plenty of points.
This over has hit in two of the last three games. Detroit plays at Ford Field, which is a dome that favors offense. The home crowds energize this Lions crew. However, Green Bay has been scoring just fine on the road. Both teams are playing at a pace that creates extra possessions.
I expect both sides to move the ball and reach the end zone. Combined points will exceed this number as both teams trade scores.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Packers/Lions OVER 52.5 Points
Kansas City @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to face the Seattle Seahawks as slight underdogs. The Chiefs remain undefeated at 5-0. Their offense and defense have looked better than in the past two seasons, and Patrick Mahomes is leading the attack. However, he’s been helped greatly by the running of Kenneth Walker.
Seattle sits at 3-3 and has dropped two straight. Their offense has struggled and ranks in the lower part of the NFL in efficiency. It’s tough to go into Lumen Field and win. However, we’ve seen teams do it, even this year. Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs are always a smash spot as underdogs.
Sam Darnold has had trouble protecting the ball this year, and I think the Chiefs’ defense can exploit that. I expect the 49ers won’t be the only undefeated team by the end of this weekend.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Chiefs +2.5 and +120 Moneyline
Parlay
You don’t want to submit your NFL Week 7 picks without a parlay! This week, I’m doing a moneyline round-robin parlay. Give me the Chiefs +120, the Saints +150, and the Panthers -175. A three-leg parlay will pay +755, however, I’m also doing this as a round-robin so that when one of our dogs hits, we’ll still have a nice payout.
