NFL Week 6 Survivor & Contest Bombs! Recap
Bottom Line Bombs is back with NFL Week 6 survivor picks and Circa Millions plays, starting with a Thursday night ladder card for Seahawks at Broncos. It ends with the Rams laying 12.5 in Survivor and a dead number on the Panthers.
Monday Night Cash And A Broncos Dog On Thursday
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) starts with the Monday night receipts, and the card looked good. The Bills +3.5 cashed with an outright win in a great game. The Puka over was never in doubt, and the Keon Coleman anytime touchdown hit as well. So the only sting was the Dawson Knox first touchdown at 35-1, which came painfully close twice. Knox dropped one right in his hands on the opening drive. Then Allen missed him wide open in the corner on the next chance. It was still a winning night, but that sweep was right there.
Then it’s Seattle at Denver on Thursday night, with the line holding at 2.5 and the total at 40.5. The side is Broncos +2.5 at home on a short week. Neither offense is easy to trust, and Sam Darnold has been a little steadier than Bo Nix. Sean Payton took back the play-calling, but nothing really changed for Nix. Also, Denver’s home field is tough, and this is a grudge game for Payton against Seattle’s head coach. So take the points with the home dog and let the Broncos defense keep it close.
The best prop on the board starts with the defenses. Seattle is first in the league in interceptions, and Denver is fourth. Both quarterbacks are juiced around -140 to throw one on their own. So put them together, because both quarterbacks to throw an interception pays +200. Then add Bo Nix over 14.5 rushing yards. Seattle gives up the fourth most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Drake Maye ran on them in the opener. Nix hasn’t been running much, but tight games push quarterbacks to take things into their own hands. Fifteen yards is not a hard number to hit.
Two Ladders And A 16-1 Shot On Little Jordan Humphrey
Nix loves checking it down to R.J. Harvey, and Seattle doesn’t mind letting that happen. The Seahawks funnel coverage toward running backs and allow the fourth most receptions to the position. Harvey’s reception total sits at 3.5, so the ladder climbs from there. Five catches pays +169 and six catches pays +329. Seven catches gets you +630. Then flip to the Seattle side for a second ladder on A.J. Barner. Denver allows the seventh most yards to tight ends in the league. Barner has been disappointing, but this sets up as his blow-up game.
His receiving total starts at 26.5, so grab a half unit there and chop the rest up the ladder. Then the rungs come in at 40 yards for +195, 50 yards for +332 and 60 yards for +540. Also add 70 yards at +840, and extend it one more time to 80 yards at 13-1. And the touchdown shot is Little Jordan Humphrey at 16-1 to score anytime. When Payton calls plays, Humphrey gets dialed up, and he only saw scrap targets last week. Sprinkle him for the first touchdown at 16-1 too. Anyone wanting the Seattle side can take Rashid Shaheed at 19-1.
Carolina Minus One Is A Dead Number
The Circa Millions card opens off a 4-1 week to start the quarter. The first pick is pure contest math. Circa locks its lines when it posts them, and five minutes later the Jalen Hurts blood clot news hit. That’s a dead number, because you’re getting 2.5 points of value no matter how you feel about the side. So take Carolina -1 and don’t overthink it. The Panthers were already the lean before the news anyway.
The schedule spot was ugly for the Eagles even before the injury. They played in London last week, blew that game late and flew home. Now they face a Carolina team coming off a bye. Teams in that exact spot have only shown up four times in NFL history, and they’re 0-4. The Eagles defense is playing great, and Jalen Carter has been a beast. But the offense now runs through Tanner McKee at quarterback, Damien Pierce at running back and Darius Cooper at wide receiver. That group isn’t scaring anybody. Also, flying a quarterback with a known blood clot overseas looks close to malpractice.
The NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks Land On The Rams
Then a guest joins for survivor, fresh off last week’s no-sweat cash with the Houston Texans. The Cowboys losing also trimmed the field in a big way. The biggest spread on the board is the Rams at 12.5. The Chiefs are at 8, the Colts and Patriots both sit at 7, and San Francisco is already used. The guest wasn’t even considering the Rams until this morning, because they’re a double holiday team. So the shortlist started with the Patriots, Chiefs and Colts. And the method is always the same: find which underdog has the easiest path to an upset.
The Jets have a real path against a banged-up Patriots defense, because their pass rush can get after you. Meanwhile the Colts defense is bad, even if Tennessee is worse. Kansas City has the cleanest path, since the winless Chargers are struggling and the Chiefs are off a bye. But that sets up a trade-off. The Rams play in Seattle on Christmas and face Green Bay on Thanksgiving, and Matt LaFleur is 5-0 against Sean McVay. Kansas City plays at Buffalo on Thanksgiving, so that holiday slot was never usable anyway.
So the guest burns the Rams now and saves Kansas City for Week 9 against the Jets. That means the Rams laying 12.5 against Arizona and Jacoby Brissett. Los Angeles is coming off a Monday night loss, and dropping this one would mean real problems. But they shouldn’t lose it. CJ Sullivan likes the contrarian angle too. If everyone else is on the Rams at Thanksgiving, this entry will be somewhere else, hoping the dog wins that day.
Circa Millions: Bucs, Colts, Packers And Niners
Pittsburgh hit big for this card last week, but the Steelers zig and zag. Now everyone believes in them again after Aaron Rodgers looked great and Jaylen Warren broke off long touchdowns. Rodgers hates Florida and the humidity, and he hates blitzes even more. Also, Todd Bowles loves dialing them up. The Bucs have had 10 days to stew since upsetting Dallas on Thursday night. Then rookie Jalon Daniels gets that extra prep time after running through the Cowboys defense.
Next comes Indianapolis -7 against Tennessee, and this one shouldn’t be close. The Titans rank second worst in DVOA at -39, while the Colts sit 21st at -6.5. Cam Ward already said “We’re assed,” and things have not improved since. The Colts usually handle Tennessee at home and have routed them in recent meetings. Daniel Jones just needs to protect the ball. Baltimore was the original thought here, but Lamar Jackson’s status is up in the air. So the pick swapped to the Colts before the show wrapped.
Sunday night brings Green Bay -1 at Lambeau against Dallas. The Cowboys have a rest edge with 10 days off, but their defense is the worst in football. They held a players-only meeting, and Christian Parker is moving up to the booth. Green Bay’s offensive line looked much better against the Bears last week. And Jordan Love should feast on that secondary, with Micah Parsons still not back. Dallas will score plenty, but the Packers only need three or four stops. Also, the Brewers baseball vibes in Wisconsin don’t hurt.
Finally, Monday night closes the card with San Francisco -7.5 against Washington. This is the game that gets Dan Quinn fired. Washington just ran out the clock in overtime when a field goal could have won it, and everyone is pointing fingers. Jayden Daniels is back from injury, but Fred Warner could spy him all night. Then there’s the backup situation if his elbow pops out again. Washington needed the Titans or Miami this week. Instead they fly cross-country to face the best team in football, and the Niners should put Quinn on the hot seat for good.
Man In The Box: Shane Gillis And Kelly Clarkson
The Man in the Box segment starts with the Shane Gillis backlash. Gillis hosted SNL for the third time to promote the new season of Tires on Netflix. Then he did a routine bit about how people dress at the gym. His point was that it’s hard not to look, and now you get filmed and labeled a creep. So the response was more outfit videos aimed right at him. CJ Sullivan figures that’s exactly what Gillis wanted. Also, this is a comedian who sold out the Linc in Philadelphia.
Then there’s the Kelly Clarkson story, which apparently consumed Twitter. Clarkson says a Brooklyn toy store told her an item was not for sale. Then she put the shop on blast. The owners didn’t handle the PR well either. And the store sells animatronic birds for $15,000, so the small business defense lands a little soft. The verdict is that there’s no good person in this story. But Clarkson still gets a pass, because she seems like one of the nicer celebrities. Also, nobody posting the surveillance video actually knows what was said.
Before signing off, the host plugs a Saturday night show in Chicago at the Hamburg Club in historic Bridgeport. It starts at 7:00, it’s for a good cause, and there’s now a foundation honoring the late Pat Bryce. The Laddie Daddy segment also airs Friday on the VSIN show, done from a Chicago hotel room. So if you’re in Chicago this weekend, hit him up and catch some games. And the last word goes to the survivor pick, with a shout to Kelly Stafford. Let’s go Rams, because this entry needs them to beat the Cardinals.
Watch: Sean's Week 6 CFB Locks!
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:33 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
5:32 Seattle vs. Denver Picks
11:19 R.J. Harvey Reception Ladder
12:29 A.J. Barner Receiving Yards Ladder
13:56 Little Jordan Humphrey Anytime Touchdown
21:20 Carolina Panthers Dead Number
25:06 Survivor With The Guest The Young Sharp
37:49 Circa Millions: Bucs, Colts, Packers & Niners
53:55 Man in the Box: Shane Gillis & Kelly Clarkson
59:47 Sign-Off & Socials
