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The NFL season stops for no one, and we’re already about to start Week 6. Week 5 provided a lot of valuable data points that will impact how we handicap the upcoming week of the season. Pretenders are starting to separate themselves from contenders. There are also a few teams looking to bounce back from a weird loss or non-loss. There are also a few teams that are coming off big wins that could get beaten in a letdown spot. We’ve got teams that we’re looking to follow and fade in Week 6. Let’s go through our NFL betting analysis for the next week of games.
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How should I bet on the NFL this weekend? Week 6 Analytics & Trends
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are staying in London for a second week, and the Houston Texans are heading there after picking up their first win of the season. Houston added wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to the roster, but the team still has a poor ground game and a shaky passing defense.
Jacksonville has been a metrics darling this year, and the spreadsheets have turned into wins. The Jaguars are second in the league in rush yards allowed and second in the league in explosive rush plays allowed. The Houston ground game is the bottom third of the league. The Texans should struggle to generate positive yards on early downs. This will add a strain to the Texans’ offense by putting them in third and long more often than not. Jacksonville can get after the quarterback, and Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud struggles when facing a heavy pass rush.
On the offensive end, Jacksonville has been remarkably efficient through the air this year. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is fourth in the league in EPA per dropback and fifth in the league in completion percentage over expected. Houston can be gashed through the air, especially if their pass rush doesn’t get the time it needs to get to the quarterback. Lawrence has been decisive and accurate this year. He should find success through the air if he keeps getting the ball out quickly.
The situation and the metrics favor Jacksonville, and the Jaguars are only laying a short number. This looks like a smash play.
Best Bet: Jacksonville -2.5
New York Giants
The New York Giants are coming in lukewarm after a non-loss to the Washington Commanders. New York gets to face the New Orleans Saints in New Jersey this weekend. The Giants are actually a short underdog despite coming in with a better record and several key advantages over New Orleans.
Neither defense has been particularly efficient, but the Giants have been better than the Saints by most advanced metrics, and the G-Men get to play at home. New Orleans is 31st in the league in rushing EPA allowed. The Giants’ ground attack is 26th in the league through Week 5 in EPA per rush, but even their rushing offense should find gaps in the Saints’ defense.
New Orleans also struggles to get off the field when on defense. The Saints allow opponents to convert 50% of their 3rd down attempts. That’s 29th in the league. The Giants are eighth in the league in third-down conversions on offense.
New York should be able to stay in third-and-short situations and stay on the field against a leaky Saints third-down defense. There’s a clear game script to get the Giants home as a short underdog.
Best Bet: New York Giants +1.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is coming in hot after a come-from-behind win against Atlanta in Week 5. The Ravens have to travel to Cleveland for an AFC North matchup with the Browns. Baltimore will likely be without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson for a second straight week.
The Ravens have a clear advantage on the offensive end, but the Browns are actually more efficient on the defensive end than Baltimore has been. The Browns are 15th in the league in defensive EPA per play, while the Ravens are 16th. Cleveland has struggled to stop the run this year, but the Browns have been solid in the back end and rank among the best in the league in terms of generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The Browns have a few clear disadvantages in this matchup, but Baltimore may be on its second game with a backup quarterback on the road. Given the home spot for Cleveland, this looks like an opportunity to fade a Ravens team that has already been clipped by New Orleans.
Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +5.5
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys head to Lambeau Field on Sunday night for a matchup with the Green Bay Packers. Dallas is off a loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday, while the Packers rolled the Chicago Bears in Green Bay. Dallas has the least efficient defense in the league, and the Cowboys should be without several linebackers and defensive backs in this matchup.
The Packers have a few injury concerns on the defensive side, but they should absolutely cook the Dallas defense. Green Bay is 13th in the league in passing EPA, and Dallas has a terrible pass rush. Packers quarterback Jordan Love should be able to sit on the pocket for as long as he needs to, more often than not.
Dallas is capable of running the ball on offense. However, the Cowboys seem to fall in love with throwing, and often abandon the ground game. Pass defense is actually a strength of the Green Bay defense, and there’s a non-zero chance that Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott makes a mistake. Dallas can’t defend, and we just watched the Packers take every advantage against the Chicago Bears. This should be an easy cash to end the night.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -1.5
The Sports Gambling Podcast
For more analysis of every NFL game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean “Stackin’ The Money” Green and Ryan “Real Money” Kramer talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline NFL picks every week!
