NFL Picks Week 6 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) break down their NFL Week 6 picks against the spread, from Seahawks at Broncos on Thursday to Cowboys vs. Packers on Sunday night. It ends with Sean Green locking the Raiders plus 4.5 and Ryan Kramer locking the Colts minus 7 against the Titans.
Buck, Aikman And The Jeremiah Smith Question
The show opens in the Monday Night Football booth. Joe Buck signed a six-year deal worth roughly $108 million while Troy Aikman still has no extension offer, and the two reportedly had it out before the Rams and Bills kicked off. Sean Green reads it as a leverage fight, because Aikman needed Buck to hold off so they could negotiate on the same clock. Ryan Kramer has zero sympathy. He thinks Aikman has started phoning it in, and if the seat opens he hands it to Greg Olsen, a sharp and wholesome analyst who would make the booth better.
Then it’s on to the draft, where Ryan Kramer keeps circling Jeremiah Smith at +230 to go first overall. CJ Carr sits at +360, Dane Brugler’s current QB1 is +380 and Arch Manning is 6-1, though his grandfather already says Arch is heading back to college. Kramer hasn’t bet any of it because he thinks the prices stink. Sean Green would rather take dart throws on the quarterbacks in the 12-1 to 20-1 range, since nobody was betting Cam Ward first overall in October either. And if a three-win Tampa team landed the top pick? Sean trades down to a team desperate for a quarterback and still figures out a way to get Smith.
NFL Week 6 Picks Start In Denver And London
Denver catches 2.5 at home on Thursday night, +120 on the moneyline with a 40.5 total, and both hosts take the Broncos. Sean Green brings the history: Denver is 38-19 ATS as a home underdog since 1991, and primetime dogs have now won seven straight outright, the longest streak since the merger. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is nursing an ankle on a short week at altitude. Seattle also hasn’t found a run game, so the load falls on Emanuel Wilson and a Sam Darnold whose turnovers sank them against the 49ers. Denver has owned second halves too, outscoring the Jags 17-13 and the Rams 20-10 after the break.
Ryan Kramer sees a Sean Payton dink-and-dunk game script, with Bo Nix using his legs and the backs and tight ends doing the work underneath. The market tells the same story. Seattle has 88% of the handle and 68% of the bets at the Green Book, but Circa is the opposite, which is the classic pros versus Joes split and the reason the number won’t budge. Denver is missing Pat Surtain and Hufanga. Even so, the guys expect the Broncos to load the box, make Darnold beat them, eat clock and shorten the game, which also makes Denver a tidy teaser piece for anyone building one.
Across the pond, Jacksonville lays 2.5 (-140) against Houston at Wembley with a 42.5 total, and this is about as close to an auto-play as Week 6 gets. The Jags have been in London all week and take the bye afterward, a setup that is 2-0 ATS in the second game of their back-to-backs. Sean Green would make the number four. So why is it 2.5? Ryan Kramer says the market is eager to buy Houston, and Jacksonville’s late-down numbers profile as a fade. Houston’s only path is the pass rush forcing Trevor Lawrence into fumbles plus a monster Nico Collins game. Both lay the 2.5 anyway.
Early Window Splits From New England To Atlanta
The Patriots lay seven at home against the Jets (-330, Jets +275, 43.5 total), and this is the first real split of the night. Sean Green lays it, because New England covered both meetings last year when the spread was 12.5, and the Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog against a winning team. He doesn’t think New York gets to the 20 points it needs. Ryan Kramer ignores his gambling instincts and trusts his gut on the Jets plus seven. His case is simple: take away the deep ball from Drake Maye and the Patriots offense stalls, although Adonai Mitchell missing practice leaves Garrett Wilson as nearly the whole passing game.
Pittsburgh lays 2.5 in Tampa (-138, Bucs +118) with a 39 total. Sean Green takes the Steelers because they shut down running quarterbacks, holding Drake Maye to 17 rush yards, Deshaun Watson to 22 and Joe Burrow to 13. The Bucs allow the second-fewest rush yards to running backs with Vita Vea in the middle. So Sean expects a 21-17 game decided by turnovers, and Pittsburgh is also 10-0 ATS in its last 10 against the NFC South. Ryan Kramer grabs the home dog instead. Todd Bowles will blitz, and Pittsburgh rates third worst against the blitz at -0.3 EPA per Sumner Sports.
Baltimore lays five in Cleveland (-245, Browns +210, 43 total), and the guys split again. Sean Green takes the Browns plus five, since Cleveland is 7-1 ATS as a home dog and 6-0 as a divisional home dog, while Baltimore is coming off an overtime win on a back-to-back road trip with a Lamar Jackson who may not be 100%. Ryan Kramer is on the Ravens, betting Derrick Henry and the run game against a banged-up Browns front, with Trey Hendrickson back and Quinshon Judkins not practicing. But Kramer waits until Friday at Circa to confirm Lamar is starting. Sean says bet it now, because five is the best number anyone will see.
Chicago lays 1.5 in Atlanta (-130, Falcons +110) with a 51 total. Sean Green lays it with Ben Johnson, who is 5-2 straight up and 5-2 ATS off a loss, against a Falcons defense ranked 24th against the run and a Michael Penix playing through a rib injury. The preseason number was 4.5, so he calls this a great price. Ryan Kramer fires right back that the Bears are 32nd against the run. Then he points to Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson getting to the edges, and he takes the Falcons plus 1.5 because the Green Bay loss raised questions he doesn’t think Chicago answers this week.
Fade The Titans, Back The Giants
Indy lays seven against Tennessee (-320, Titans +265, 44 total), and the flowchart says fade the Titans at all costs. Tennessee is 0-5, hasn’t beaten the Colts since 2022, and Indy is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Ryan Kramer adds that the Colts play plenty of zone and Cam Ward struggles against it. Sean Green admits the Titans rush defense ranks 11th and the Colts defense keeps getting carved up. But he sums it up best: you feel dumb laying seven with the Colts, and you’ll feel dumber betting the Titans. Both hosts are on Indy, and both had the Titans under 6.5 wins back in the preseason.
Philadelphia is a one-point home dog to Carolina with a 40 total, and the spot is ugly for the Eagles. A team coming off a bye facing a team back from England has happened only five times, and the previous four went 0-4. Ryan Kramer takes the Panthers on the strength of that once-in-a-blue-moon situation. Sean Green goes home team anyway, because teams off a bye have not been profitable, Bryce Young as a road favorite is not profitable, and the Eagles defense is playing great. The market can’t decide either. The Green Book shows 53% of the bets but only 45% of the handle on Philly.
The Saints lay 1.5 on the road against the Giants (-120, Giants +100, 46.5 total), and Ryan Kramer spit out his coffee when he saw it. Sean Green lays out the case for New Orleans, mostly that the Giants top the fraud metrics. Kramer counters that the Giants have been dialing up the blitz, the Saints quarterback keeps struggling against pressure, and Malik Nabers saw 20 targets last week. Also, it’s a Jameis Winston revenge spot. So in the end Sean can’t make the Saints a road favorite either, and both take the Giants plus 1.5, a number Kramer likes as a teaser leg.
Late Window Chalk And A Close Your Eyes Special
The Rams lay 12.5 against Arizona (-800, Cardinals +575, 52 total), and both hosts lay it. Sean Green calls the Cardinals fake spunky, a team that piles up garbage-time stats without covering. Sean McVay is 33-23 ATS after a loss and owns Arizona at 16-3 straight up and 14-4-1 ATS. The Rams are 2-3 after opening at 6-1 to win the Super Bowl, and they’re missing left tackle Alaric Jackson after his postgame punch. Ryan Kramer thinks Arizona’s quarterback folds against the blitz again, with a defensive touchdown in play, so the Rams should win this one big.
Buffalo lays 4.5 in Las Vegas (-225, Raiders +195, 53 total), and the Raiders are this week’s close your eyes special, 2-2 on the year so far. Sean Green likes Kirk Cousins against a Bills defense that everybody throws on. He also likes Maxx Crosby against a line missing right tackle Spencer Brown, plus a Buffalo team coming off a walk-off overtime win. Ryan Kramer sees fewer edges for Vegas, since Buffalo ranks first in yards before contact and the Raiders rank last, which could mean a James Cook blowup. But a special that scares people is a better special, and both take the Raiders plus 4.5.
Andy Reid is off a bye, and the Chiefs lay eight to the Chargers (-420, Chargers +340, 42.5 total). The summer lookahead had Kansas City laying just 2.5. Herbert is 5-1-1 ATS as a dog of six or more, and division dogs have been good. Then again, the Chargers look to be without both tackles and Derwin James, and Kenneth Walker should feast on a defense that can’t tackle. Kansas City also plays a lot of man, which the Chargers handle poorly. So both hosts call it the donkey play of the week and take the Chiefs.
Green Bay is a one-point favorite over Dallas on Sunday night (Cowboys -105, 53 total), and both hosts are on the Packers. Jordan Love does his best work when he can sit back and throw the moon ball, and the Cowboys get little pressure with a secondary Ryan Kramer calls bad. Dallas also brought in Mike Pettine as a defensive assistant to help first-year coordinator Christian Parker, which Sean Green calls a red flag. Monday night’s Commanders and Niners game (San Francisco -7.5) gets skipped on the pod and saved for the newsletter, after a long rant about Jayden Daniels and the ending in New York.
Locks, Dogs, Teasers And The Circa Million Card
Sean Green goes first, sitting at 57% on locks for the season. He takes the Raiders plus 4.5, the 49ers minus 7.5 and the Chiefs minus eight, then grabs the Broncos on the moneyline as his dog because the bigger underdogs don’t appeal to him this week. His tease starts with the Patriots down to one and the Rams down to 6.5. Sean also admits the card is chalky, but he figures it is a week where being chalky is fine, since several of these spreads feel like they have priced the favorites too cheaply.
Ryan Kramer is at 60% after a 2-1 week. He locks the Colts minus seven, the Rams minus 12.5 in full donkey mode and the Jags minus 2.5, then moves Atlanta to his dog on the moneyline at +110. His tease runs the Niners down to 1.5, the Chiefs down to two and the Bucs up to 8.5. And the shared Circa Million card, where the guys are below .500, lands on Indy minus seven, Raiders plus 4.5, Jags minus 2.5, Niners minus 7.5 and Denver plus 2.5. Kramer adds that San Francisco is likely a full bet for him, with Carolina a strong candidate too.
Watch: Sean's Week 6 CFB Locks!
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:47 Joe Buck and Troy Aikman Argument
13:17 Jeremiah Smith First Overall Odds
19:24 Seattle vs. Denver Picks
25:25 Houston vs. Jacksonville Picks
35:13 Jets vs. Patriots Picks
41:37 Steelers vs. Buccaneers Picks
50:35 Ravens vs. Browns Picks
59:55 Bears vs. Falcons Picks
1:05:37 Tennessee vs. Indy Picks
1:11:52 Carolina vs. Philadelphia Eagles Picks
1:19:46 Saints vs. Giants Picks
1:28:29 Arizona vs. Rams Picks
1:37:22 Bills vs. Raiders Picks
1:43:40 Chargers vs. Chiefs Picks
1:47:30 Packers vs. Cowboys Picks
1:52:32 Commanders vs. 49ers Picks
2:01:11 Locks, Dog & Tease
2:08:59 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
