College Football Picks Week 7 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) bring in Colby from The College Football Experience for their Week 7 college football picks, from Penn State at Michigan to Florida at Texas. It ends with Colby locking up App State and Sean Green riding Colorado State plus 14.
A Round Robin Hangover And A Craps Table Disaster
Last week’s moneyline dog round robin hit, and the guys are still riding it. Ryan Kramer had Kentucky, Sean Green had UNC and Colby Dant (@thecolbyd) of The College Football Experience had Oklahoma, all three on the moneyline. Sean was in Chicago because his wife ran the Chicago Marathon. He found out Oklahoma won by overhearing a kid at the next table in a local Italian spot, and his reaction did not fit the quiet family dinner around him. Later he watched the Kentucky two-point conversion alone at a hotel bar and told a stranger he had just cashed $3,300.
Kramer’s weekend went the other way. He stayed behind after the show and got talked into crapless craps with a friend of a friend, the kind of guy who demands his marker at the top of his lungs. The energy soured once the guy started riding the dealers, so Kramer walked to the window lighter than he wanted. He only played a baby version of the second round robin, the one that swapped UCLA in for UNC. It hit, of course. He also lost at the slots for the first time in his life and ended the night with an extra-toasted bagel. On the bright side, the consensus plays went 8-3. Kramer also added a parlay section to the Patreon sheet, and the units are up so much the guys joke they almost can’t have a losing season.
The Week 7 College Football Picks Open Midweek
Sam Houston is 1-4, and Colby swears they are good anyway. They should have beaten Troy in the opener, took Tulsa to the wire and beat Nicholls 59-0. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has lost six straight true road games. The line bounced from the Hilltoppers at -1.5 to Sam Houston at -1.5 and back again, sitting around Western Kentucky -2 with a 52.5 total. Sean likes the protection matchup because WKU has only six sacks, and Bearkats quarterback Landon Locke has 11 touchdowns against three interceptions. All three guys are on Sam Houston as a home dog. Colby also adds the over 52.5.
East Carolina at UAB is where the room splits for the first time. Colby wants the Pirates laying 4.5 (47.5 total) because UAB hasn’t beaten ECU in 20 years, and the last meeting ended 63-14. Kramer is happy to step in front of that train. ECU plays Memphis next on a Thursday, and UAB is celebrating homecoming, which is the same look-ahead fade the guys love in the NFL. Sean is with Kramer on UAB. He wonders whether a short-week ECU team is really road favorite material and calls it something like a 21-17 game.
The best number of the midweek slate might be Colorado State +14 at Texas State, down from 14.5. The Rams’ defensive coordinator left mid-game, and Jim Mora now gets a bye week to fix the defense. Starting quarterback Hoss Henny is doubtful, but Colby isn’t panicking. Backup Cassan Farrar played for Mora at UConn and threw for 344 yards against UTSA in his first start. Texas State also ranks 138th in pass defense, dead last in the country. So all three take the Rams and the points, with Kramer guessing the quarterback news is handing out some hidden value.
Friday brings Memphis laying seven at Tulane (55.5 total), and nobody fights it. Colby says he hasn’t gotten a Memphis game wrong all year, and Kramer notes they have failed to cover only one of their wins. Tulane is coming off a trip to Army without a clear starting quarterback. Then it’s App State -1.5 at Coastal Carolina, a game Colby will attend in his App sweatshirt instead of anything resembling Coastal’s retro ’90s uniforms. Coastal ranks 80th in rushing and got outgained 505 to 300 by Marshall. Sean wants an eye on Malachi Singleton’s ankle but goes App State with everyone else.
Ohio State, Indiana And The Saturday Splits
Indiana is catching 3.5 at home against Ohio State (50.5 total) after winning 22 straight games, and Sean can’t pass on that. A team that hasn’t lost, at home, getting more than a field goal with Cignetti on the sideline is all he needs. Colby agrees and doesn’t buy Ohio State’s fifth-ranked pass defense either. He points to the 462 yards Illinois piled up at the Shoe two weeks ago. Kramer goes the other way with the Buckeyes. By his eye Indiana has been mostly bad this year, the secondary looks like a problem, and this could turn into a blowout.
LSU lays 14.5 against Mississippi State in Death Valley (58.5 total), and Colby wants every one of those points. His case is that LSU hasn’t beaten a good team, and Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby worked with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss, so they know what’s coming. Sean takes Hail State too, even with Kamario Taylor day-to-day with a foot injury. Kramer lays it with LSU. Over in Dallas, SMU is -8.5 against Virginia (52.5 total). Colby and Kramer lay it because Virginia looks one-dimensional, but Sean takes the Wahoos and the points after SMU took enough of his money.
Texas has moved from -10.5 to -11.5 against Florida (52.5 total), and all three guys take the Gators anyway. Florida’s defense allowed 39, 28, 45 and 38 points in its first four SEC games, so this is the obvious get-right spot for Arch Manning. Sean still won’t lay double digits with a Texas offense Colby has at 79th overall. Kansas at Kansas State is messier. The Wildcats lay 4.5 (55.5 total) after opening somewhere between 6.5 and 8.5, and Kansas hasn’t beaten K-State in roughly 17 straight tries. Colby and Sean take the Jayhawks anyway. Kramer sides with the cat over the bird.
Alabama is -8.5 at Tennessee (51.5 total) coming off the Georgia game. Sean and Colby lay it, since Bama already won at Kentucky and Tennessee hasn’t beaten anybody good. Kramer, who called the Georgia result, plays the spot and takes Tennessee at home because that physical game could have drained Alabama. Then Ole Miss lays 6.5 against Missouri (58.5 total) with Texas on deck. Missouri leads the series 7-1, and Austin Simmons gets a revenge game against his former school. Colby also has the Ole Miss defense charting 108th. So he and Sean take Mizzou and the points, while Kramer lays it and insists Texas is too bad to be a real look-ahead.
Big Dogs, Altitude And The Holy War
North Carolina +3.5 at Duke (47.5 total) is one of the easiest calls on the card. Colby thinks UNC should be 4-1 and expects them to win outright. Sean had UNC on the moneyline last week and likes how the defense is playing. Kramer is on UNC as well, noting Duke has a Friday night game against Virginia next. Penn State +6.5 at Michigan (42.5 total) gets the same unanimous treatment. Colby says now is the time to buy Matt Campbell as a heavy dog, and Kramer trusts the Penn State quarterback far more than Bryce Underwood.
UNLV lays 1.5 at Air Force, and Sean stands alone on the Falcons. He likes the altitude at 6,621 feet and an offense that went 0-for-1 passing with 439 rushing yards in a three-touchdown win over Northern Illinois. Colby and Kramer take UNLV because Air Force lost quarterback Liam Zarka for the year. Then UCLA -2.5 against Wisconsin (44.5 total) becomes a lock for Colby. Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph has faced Chesney twice, and last season’s meeting ended 63-27 with two picks and a fumble. Everyone is on UCLA.
Houston lays 4.5 against Oklahoma State (62.5 total), and the guys back Willie Fritz, who is 2-0 against Eric Morris. Sean worries about the backdoor because Oklahoma State throws for 322.4 yards per game against a Houston pass defense ranked 118th, but he lays it with the group. Notre Dame closes the board at -10.5 in Provo (46.5 total). Sean takes BYU as a high-elevation home dog, citing Sitake at 10-6 ATS in that role. Colby and Kramer lay it with the Irish, and Colby adds the under 46.5 with a 20-7 final in mind.
Locks, Teases And The Seven Contest Plays
Colby’s four locks are App State -1.5, UCLA -2.5, UNC +3.5 and Memphis -7, with Penn State at +180 as his moneyline dog. His teases bring SMU down to -2.5, Memphis to -1 and Alabama to -2.5, which even Kramer admits is the correct way to tease. Sean locks Colorado State +14, Florida +11.5, UNC +3.5 and BYU +10.5. His moneyline dog is Missouri at +180. He also tails the Alabama and Memphis teases before taking Air Force up to +7.5 as a home dog.
Kramer goes back to his roots with four favorites: Notre Dame, UCLA, Ohio State and Memphis. His dog is UNC on the moneyline, which Colby roasts as a pick he already gave out. Kramer then teases LSU down to -8.5 and takes Tennessee up to +14.5 and Florida up to +17.5. The round robin this week is Florida, Penn State and UNC. Finally, the seven contest plays are UCLA -2.5, UNC +3.5, Memphis -7, Florida +11.5, App State -1.5, Colorado State +14 and Notre Dame -10.5. That last one is Kramer’s pick, and Sean already calls it a bad play.
Watch: UNC, Oklahoma and Kentucky Moneyline Round Robin!
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Welcome to the Sports Gambling Podcast
1:50 Moneyline Dog Round Robin & Craps Table
10:48 Dicka Onion Rings & Bill Murray
13:56 Taco Tuesday & Hater Parlay
18:33 Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Picks
26:16 East Carolina vs. UAB Picks
31:34 Colorado State vs. Texas State Picks
39:02 Memphis vs. Tulane Picks
45:34 App State vs. Coastal Carolina Picks
56:11 Ohio State vs. Indiana Picks
1:01:02 Mississippi State vs. LSU Picks
1:06:19 Virginia vs. SMU Picks
1:10:13 Florida vs. Texas Picks
1:15:05 Kansas vs. Kansas State Picks
1:17:57 Alabama vs. Tennessee Picks
1:20:28 Missouri vs. Ole Miss Picks
1:24:33 North Carolina vs. Duke Picks
1:27:59 Penn State vs. Michigan Picks
1:31:07 UNLV vs. Air Force Picks
1:40:20 Wisconsin vs. UCLA Picks
1:44:31 Oklahoma State vs. Houston Picks
1:47:33 Notre Dame vs. BYU Picks
1:53:20 Lock, Dog And Tease
2:00:32 Contest Plays: Consensus Locks
2:03:53 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
