It’s Week 5 of the NFL already! The bye weeks are starting, and some teams are still looking for their first win. Others haven’t lost yet. Last week we went 3-2 after a disgusting backdoor cover from Baltimore that kept us from 4-1. However, our picks are feeling on point now. Let’s look at the top NFL Week 5 bets and throw together a parlay as well!
2026 NFL Week 5 Best Bets And A Parlay That Pays!
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Bengals sit at 2-2, averaging 24.3 points per game. Joe Burrow has thrown for 1,171 yards and seven touchdowns through four games. Most importantly, he’s still healthy. He completed 71% of his passes and keeps Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins involved. Both are dealing with some injuries right now, and their game is in question. The Bengals’ defense is finally pulling its weight after multiple years of struggling.
Miami just got done playing the Minnesota Vikings. That’s an elite defense to go against, and they managed ten points. The Dolphins still struggle to sustain drives and rank near the bottom of the league in scoring and offensive efficiency. Their offensive line has allowed pressure, and the run game has yet to get going.
I expect the Bengals to be able to control the clock and create explosive plays downfield, even if Chase and/or Higgins are out. The Bengals also continue to convert red-zone trips consistently and will continue to do so. Sure, it’s a travel spot for the Bengals. However, that won’t make up for this talent gap. Burrow faces a secondary that has given up big plays, and Chase Brown adds enough rushing to keep the defense honest. Bengals should win this one by multiple scores, and that’s why it’s on my NFL Week 5 best bets. Give me Bengals -7.5.
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
Dallas enters Thursday night 2-2 and ranks second in the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game. Dak Prescott has already thrown for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb leads the league with 498 receiving yards. He just had 17 catches for 189 yards against a good Houston defense. The Cowboys are also moving the chains on third down very well.
Tampa Bay is sitting at 0-4, looking for their first win. The Bucs have failed to generate consistent offense and rank near the bottom in points scored. Even going against an inefficient Packers defense, they weren’t able to muster many points. Their offensive line has allowed pressure, and the run game isn’t getting going. Dallas’s defense ranks poorly against the pass. However, I’m not sure rookie Jalon Daniels can get enough going for them to worry about.
AT&T Stadium gives Dallas the home edge. Prescott and Lamb should produce early scores, and the Cowboys will pull away in the second half with Javonte Williams. I know it’s a big number, but these two teams have headed in opposite directions. Give me the Cowboys with the big cover at -8.5.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Denver sits at 2-2 after the 24-14 loss to the 49ers. Bo Nix has completed 60% of his passes for 819 yards and five touchdowns. The offense hasn’t clicked every week, yet Sean Payton’s scheme still creates manageable third-down situations. The defense has forced stops in key spots and faces a Chargers team that has yet to find its groove. I keep waiting for them too. However, I refuse to bet on them to find it. Therefore, I had to put this on the NFL Week 5 best bets.
Los Angeles is 0-4 and has allowed opponents to run the ball a lot between the 20s. Their offensive line has also struggled in pass protection, and the run game is atrocious. Denver’s front can generate pressure and force short throws. Nix won’t need a huge yardage day if the Broncos can lean on the run and play-action. I expect the Broncos to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I’m taking Denver -3.5 on the road.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: Over 53.5
It’s feeling like an automatic bet to take the over in Lions games, and I’m doing it again for my NFL Week 5 bets. The Lions are averaging 29.8 points per game, sitting 5th in scoring. Jared Goff has thrown for more than 1200 yards and nine touchdowns. However, on the other side of the ball, the Lions are allowing 31.8 points per game. They have allowed at least 24 points in every game. That includes last week’s loss to the Panthers in a 32-26 game that also hit the over.
Arizona is scoring 21.8 points per game but allowing close to 30. The Cardinals’ defense has given up explosive plays, and their offense still produces enough chunk gains to stay competitive. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in yards per play in the past two weeks. Detroit’s pass game stretches the field, and Arizona can answer with their own vertical shots.
With these two offenses and these two defenses, the total feels obvious. Does that worry me to a degree? Sure. However, I’m not fading overs in Lions’ games right now. Over 53.5 points is the play.
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at New York Jets
This line smells a little fishy. Cleveland is 3-1 and just beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on Thursday night. The Browns’ defense creates negative plays and forces opponents into longer third downs. Cleveland’s recent wins have come in tight games where the defense can help them close the game out.
The Jets have scored only 19 points per game and just lost 23-12 against the Bears. The Bears had more first downs than the Jets had offensive plays. Their offense struggles to finish drives, and the offensive line allows pressure. New York’s defense is middle of the pack but has not dominated. Cleveland’s ground game and short passing attack can control tempo and limit big plays.
MetLife Stadium isn’t going to give the Jets as much of an edge as this line suggests. The Browns have already beaten a divisional rival of theirs, and they are traveling with the confidence that they’ve won three straight. I’m riding the hot hand and taking the Browns +1.5 with my NFL Week 5 bets.
Parlay
For my NFL Week 5 bets parlay, I’ll keep it simple. Give me the over in the Lions/Cardinals game. I’ll pair that with the Cowboys -8.5 and the Browns moneyline. That puts us at a nice +643 parlay that I feel confident in.
