It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 5 of the NFL and we’re about a quarter of the way through the season. Time sure does fly when you are having fun! The landscape of the NFL is starting to make more sense now that we have a solid base of games to look at. I say that despite the fact that the Raiders and Browns are both 3-1. With that being said, let’s dive into The Confidence Playbook and make our NFL confidence pool picks for Week 5.
Thursday Night Football kicks off with what’s turned into a more lopsided game between Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys against Jalon Daniels and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If your pool includes Thursday night games, don’t miss the pick on this one. It’s also the first week of bye games. Instead of 16 games, we have just 15 on the board this week as the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs are the first two squads to hit the early bye games.
Can’t Miss – High Confidence Picks
1. Cowboys Over Buccaneers
2. Bengals Over Dolphins
3. Jaguars Over Eagles
4. Texans Over Titans
5. Ravens Over Falcons
My confidence begins on Thursday Night Football this week. The Dallas Cowboys have looked good to start the season. Their losses came to a healthy Giants team on the road and a good Ravens team in Brazil. They face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, who are down and out and starting a rookie undrafted free agent at quarterback on a short week at home. Give me Dem Boys Thursday.
Fade Miami. It’s been a theme all season and for good reason. They are a bad football team, with bad coaching, missing their best player. Cincinnati suffered some injuries Sunday, but they’ll be just fine as the clearly better team in this matchup.
Jacksonville looks like an elite team, and Philadelphia does not. That makes this a simple pick. Add in that this is a London game for the “London Jags” in a spot they are used to traveling to. Philadelphia is extremely beat up and now has to travel to London? This is a great spot for the Jaguars, who are highlighted in this week’s Biggest Line Moves.
It’s a little weird to have a 0-4 team in the high confidence section, but when it’s against the Tennessee Titans, it makes a lot more sense. Houston has been a really good team through all four games, and their losses have come to three really good teams and a tough division opponent. Now they get a cupcake game that they need, and their defense will feast on Cam Ward.
Sunday Night Football is up next, as we just covered most of the Primetime and international games in the first section. Whether it’s Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley starting this game, it doesn’t make a difference to me. Baltimore is a good football team; Atlanta has looked strong the last two weeks but I’m not sold yet.
Feelin’ Good – Confident Picks
6. Bears Over Packers
7. Broncos Over Chargers
8. Patriots Over Raiders
9. Lions Over Cardinals
10. Vikings Over Saints
Bears and Packers, one of the most historic rivalries, can go either way anytime. However, Chicago has shown me they are an excellent team, even with Caleb Williams out of commission at the moment. Green Bay has looked bad and struggled to beat a bad Buccaneers team with an undrafted rookie free agent starting his first game last week.
I had high hopes for the Los Angeles Chargers this season. Those hopes are long dead, and this team appears to be spiraling. Denver needs to figure out how to play in the first half of games, but other than that looks like a solid team. They’ll probably have home-field advantage at this point in Los Angeles anyways.
The Patriots lost last year against the Raiders in a weird Week 1 game. Las Vegas looks like a much better team this year, but I believe the Patriots want revenge for that loss that left a bad taste in their mouths. They are coming off a huge win over Buffalo and have home-field advantage in this game as well.
The Detroit Lions need something to help their season along. Their only win is against the New York Jets this year. Arizona has looked a lot better than advertised in 2026, and this game may have 200 points scored in it. However, it’s a great bounce-back spot for the Lions to right the ship, and overall they are still the better team.
Minnesota did just enough to send the lowly Miami Dolphins packing last week and keep our survivor picks rolling along. They get a good up-and-coming Saints team to test their undefeated record, and it’ll be a tough crowd in the Superdome. However, I agree with Vegas that Minnesota is the better team and will come out on top in a close one on their elite defense.
Hold Your Breath – True Toss Ups
11. 49ers Over Seahawks
12. Colts Over Steelers
13. Giants Over Commanders
14. Browns Over Jets
15. Bills Over Rams
San Francisco has been the class of the NFL this season. For that reason, I’ll ride with them, but this is going to be a tough divisional game with Seattle.
Both the Colts and Steelers have had their shares of looking good and looking bad. Pittsburgh gets extra rest, and Indianapolis is traveling extra coming home from London, but I couldn’t talk myself into the Steelers. I still think the Colts are the better team here.
Jameis Winston vs. who for Washington? Either way, this should be a close game. Mariota is a capable backup, and Athan Kaliakmanis looked alright in relief last week. I still think New York is the better team; I’ll give them the edge in this divisional matchup.
Browns and Jets. Think back to April when you’d give anything to watch even this game. It’s gross, but I guess I’ll go with the 3-1 Deshaun Watson-led Cleveland Browns.
Monday Night Football. This should be a great game, and I think it’s a good bounce-back spot for the Bills after losing at home to New England last week. They pulled off the upset in LA.
