College Football Picks Week 5 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Colby Dant (@thecolbyd) of The College Football Experience for the college football week 5 picks, 18 games running from Thursday night in Las Cruces to a midnight Eastern kick at Hawaii. They also hand out four locks apiece, a moneyline dog each, a teaser card and a first-half moneyline parlay on Iowa and North Carolina. Most of the week’s agreement lands on the home team, and Ryan said so out loud.
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Colby opened by hoping SGPN is a place he can have a bad week and not get fired like Mike Locksley. Then the guys played the tape. On his own show, the College Football Experience crew triple-locked Northern Illinois on the moneyline, and Colby went and bet Georgia State laying 10.5 instead. By his own account he’d been at the bar for about five hours. Georgia State won, so Colby cashed against his own lock, and Ryan retired the old term on the spot: it’s no longer a Benedict, it’s a Locksley. Wake Forest and Iowa on the moneyline cashed the parlay at 12.5-1. The sore spot is Penn State losing at home as a double-digit favorite. Sean had put it in the contest, Ryan called it maybe the worst pick in contest history, and Sean answered with lock records, 65 percent for him and 35 for Ryan.
The College Football Week 5 Picks The Room Agreed On
Ryan said it with five games left on the board: lot of home teams this week. All three back Virginia Tech -3.5 against Pitt on Friday night, Delaware +7.5 against Liberty, Mississippi State against Alabama, Minnesota +5.5 against Michigan, SMU -20.5 against Boston College, North Carolina +21.5 against Notre Dame, Missouri +4.5 against Florida, Iowa +14 against Ohio State, Clemson +16.5 against Miami and Arizona -7.5 against Cincinnati. Every one of them is the home side. Mississippi State is the one that bugs them. Sean worried the Bulldogs are the public dog with fleas, and Ryan called it this week’s Ole Miss pick, hoping for a better ending. But they stayed on it. Colby pointed out that Alabama has Georgia on deck, and Ryan added that it’s a noon kick, a look-ahead spot where the players won’t be up for it.
Clemson got the most attention. Sean found that this is the first time in Dabo Swinney’s 19 years at Clemson he has been a double-digit home dog, and he’s getting 16.5. Miami is scoring 51.8 points a game, but Colby pointed to Dabo’s 5-2 record against the Hurricanes and called this Miami’s first real test, and Ryan added that Miami hasn’t won in Death Valley since 2010. North Carolina gets 21.5 off a bye while Notre Dame plays a second straight road game. Delaware turns on its quarterback. Nick Minicucci got hurt last week and is questionable, the backup completed 9 of 28 passes, and Colby reads the 7.5 as the market saying Minicucci plays. Sean noted it opened at 6.5. Colby and Ryan both called it a letdown spot for Liberty after Jamey Chadwell’s revenge game.
Sean and Ryan both lock Iowa +14. Colby could already find 14.5 and brought the history: Ohio State has played at Iowa only twice since 2010, Iowa scored 55 in one of them, and the other was a three-point game. Jeremiah Smith will get his, he figured, and Iowa hangs around anyway. Minnesota +5.5 is on all three cards in some form. Colby has the Gophers winning outright with Darius Taylor back, and he doesn’t trust Bryce Underwood on the road. Ryan is now a full-time Michigan hater and would like the playoff committee to treat this 2-2 team like one. Meanwhile, Missouri is about selling Florida high. Eli Drinkwitz is 7-20 against the top 25 and 1-11 against the top 10, but Ryan pointed out that Florida has been the most upgraded team in the market this year, and Columbia is the weird road trip in the SEC.
The Locks, The Dogs And A First-Half Parlay
Colby locked Western Kentucky +2.5 in Las Cruces, Arizona -7.5, USC -9.5 and West Virginia +3.5, then took Minnesota to win outright as his moneyline dog. His teasers move Navy up to 9.5 against Air Force, Minnesota up to 11.5 and Missouri up to 10.5, with Missouri swapped in for Iowa at the last second. On USC, Sean brought up that Lincoln Riley has never beaten Jedd Fisch, and Colby didn’t care. He thinks the Washington locker room is a mess. The West Virginia lock puts him and Sean with Moneyline Mac, who is driving 861 miles from Morgantown to Ames for the game. Colby’s case is that Iowa State’s bottom-20 passing attack can’t get at the one real weakness in the Mountaineers, their pass defense. Ryan went the other way and laid the points with Iowa State, calling it a look-ahead spot for Mack’s team.
Sean’s card is Minnesota +5.5, SMU -20.5, Iowa +14 and USC -9.5, a lock that didn’t get home for him last week. His moneyline dog is Delaware +235 at home on a Friday night, and his teasers take Arizona down to 1.5, Mississippi State up to 11.5 and North Texas up to 7.5. That last leg matches his Thursday side. He is alone on North Texas while Colby and Ryan lay 1.5 with Tulsa, a pick Colby said depends on the Tulsa quarterback being healthy. He is also alone on Penn State -2.5 at Northwestern’s new stadium, which he sees as a bounce-back spot. Colby called the place a soccer stadium and took Northwestern anyway. Ryan joined him, on his own theory that Chip Kelly does more with lesser talent.
Ryan went all dogs on his locks: Mississippi State, Minnesota +5.5, Missouri +4.5 and Iowa +14. His moneyline dog is North Carolina on the first-half moneyline, and his teasers take Arizona down to 1.5, Northwestern up to 8.5 and SMU down to 14.5. He owns most of the splits too. He’s on Florida State +2.5 while Colby and Sean lay the short number with Virginia, on Air Force -3.5 while both of them take Navy, and on San Jose State +2.5 while they lay it with Hawaii. His Hawaii case is travel, with San Jose State off a bye and Hawaii flying home from Wyoming. But Sean countered that Hawaii is 9-2 in its last 11 at the Ching Complex. Colby’s favorite play in that game is the over 51.5.
Sean floated the North Carolina first-half moneyline for the parlay, and Ryan’s gut reaction paired it with Iowa on the first-half moneyline. Sean and Colby signed on, and nobody priced it on air. The contest format changed as well. Ryan pointed out that two picks each plus a consensus play hadn’t worked the last couple of weeks, so Colby took the lead. The seven plays are USC -9.5, Minnesota +5.5, Iowa +14, North Carolina +21.5, Arizona -7.5, Western Kentucky +2.5 and Virginia Tech, which got the last spot over Delaware when Colby picked the Hokies. Ryan has been saying the same thing about Blacksburg on Friday night all episode: “It will be lit.”
Watch: Wake Forest Iowa Moneyline Parlay!
College Football Week 5 Odds
Western Kentucky
New Mexico State
North Texas
Tulsa
Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech
Liberty
Delaware
Penn State
Northwestern
West Virginia
Iowa State
Alabama
Mississippi State
Navy
Air Force
Michigan
Minnesota
Boston College
SMU
Notre Dame
North Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Ohio State
Iowa
Virginia
Florida State
Miami FL
Clemson
Washington
USC
Cincinnati
Arizona
San Jose State
HawaiiPodcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:47 Colby’s Georgia State “Locksley” & The Slide Rule Debate
25:14 Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Picks
27:38 North Texas vs. Tulsa Picks
32:09 Pitt vs. Virginia Tech Picks
39:37 Liberty vs. Delaware Picks
42:05 Penn State vs. Northwestern Picks
46:03 West Virginia vs. Iowa State Picks
54:26 Alabama vs. Mississippi State Picks
58:49 Navy vs. Air Force Picks
1:02:22 Michigan vs. Minnesota Picks
1:09:10 Boston College vs. SMU Picks
1:11:48 Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Picks
1:16:24 Florida vs. Missouri Picks
1:21:10 Ohio State vs. Iowa Picks
1:24:28 Virginia vs. Florida State Picks
1:29:46 Miami vs. Clemson Picks
1:32:26 Washington vs. USC Picks
1:34:16 Cincinnati vs. Arizona Picks
1:36:19 San Jose State vs. Hawaii Picks
1:40:30 Locks, Dogs & Teasers
1:50:55 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
