We gave out picks for West Virginia vs. Virginia last week, and yours truly swept the board. This week? It’s a matchup between a pair of SEC heavyweights. Ole Miss is off the big win at home against hated rival LSU, but Florida comes in at 3-0 and just dropped 44 points on Auburn. Who has the clear advantage in Ole Miss vs. Florida? We’ve got the angles, props, and picks that you need to know before kickoff. The breakdown of one of the most anticipated games of the weekend starts now.
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West Virginia Vs Virginia Picks, Prediction, Best Bets, and Preview
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL
Date: Saturday, September 26th, 2026
Broadcast: ABC
Time: 3:30 PM ET, 12:30 PM PT
Spread: Ole Miss +3.5 (-110), Florida -3.5 (-108)
Total: Over 58.5 (-110), Under 58.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ole Miss +140, Florida -180
How Ole Miss covers (+3.5)
Ole Miss covers by riding their star quarterback to victory and doing enough on defense to slow down the Gators’ offense. Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has elevated his game, and he’s already shown he can succeed against better competition than anything Florida will throw at him. The Gators may have just dropped 40 on Auburn, but they also gave up 39.
The advanced metrics are very kind to Florida because their best win is against Auburn, a team that should finish in the bottom half of the SEC. They’ve also ran up the score on Florida Atlantic and Campbell. Ole Miss has beaten LSU and has wins over Louisville and Charlotte.
The Ole Miss defense will take its lumps from Florida’s star running back, Jadan Baugh. Baugh has shredded inferior competition in the first three weeks of the season, but may find it tougher running against Ole Miss than Campbell. The Ole Miss pass defense looked solid against LSU’s Sam Leavitt. Florida quarterback Aaron Philo is a junior, but he’s still in his first season as the full-time starter. He didn’t look great against Auburn, and he should find the Ole Miss defense to be a bit stingier.
How Florida covers (-3.5)
Florida covers by keeping the ball out of Trinidad Chambliss’ hands through a big game on the ground from running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh is averaging 8.4 yards per carry this year, and already has eight touchdowns on the ground. He also just torched Auburn for 162 yards on 26 carries, and is an absolute load to bring down. Nearly 60% of Baugh’s yardage on the ground has come after contact.
The less Florida asks quarterback Aaron Philo to do, the better off they are in this matchup. The game script is to ride Baugh, limit big plays from Chambliss, and avoid back-breaking turnovers and penalties.
Also, The Swamp needs to disrupt the Ole Miss offense and generally be the 12th man. There’s also a non-zero chance that Ole Miss has a letdown after an emotional win over their former coach’s team last week.
Game Total: Over 58.5
It’s hard to see this game not having points scored. Florida has looked explosive on the offensive end in every game they’ve played this year. Who can forget the 66 points they buried Florida Atlantic under? The total indicates that this is a shootout, and the Florida defense struggled against an Auburn offense that only managed 17 points against Baylor.
Ole Miss has been over 40 points in every game they’ve played, and have already been in a shootout with Louisville. This game figures to have a similar game script.
Trinidad Chambliss Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
This is a wild number to catch on Chambliss. It’s almost too good to be true.
Chambliss has thrown two touchdown passes or more in all three games played this year. He only had two touchdown passes or more in five out of 13 games last year, but it’s clear that he’s taken a leap in this offense and he’s got eyes on picking up the Heisman in December. He’ll need the counting stats to compete.
Also, this game could end up in a shootout, and Ole Miss should be without running back Kewan Lacy. Look for Chambliss to either get his number called in the red zone or connect with his weapons in space. Auburn’s Byrum Brown racked up three touchdown passes against Florida last week. Chambliss should be good for at least two.
Ole Miss +3.5
This line is the bookmakers trying to use reverse psychology on bettors. Ole Miss is traveling to The Swamp after a big home win, so of course this is a letdown spot, right? Not so fast. Ole Miss has played better competition, has the better quarterback, and has likely used the line as motivation. They just beat a top ten team, and now they’re the underdogs? This has massive ‘no one believes in us energy, and the Rebels should have no problem getting up for this game.
Also, Florida’s quarterback is an untested junior who just threw a pick against Auburn. What if Aaron Philo has to run a two-minute drill to win this? We’ve never seen him have to come from behind, and he’s feasted against a mediocre Group of Five team and an FCS school that doesn’t play defense. Is he going to show up against Ole Miss? He didn’t really show up against Auburn. Take the points with Ole Miss and bet the Rebels on the moneyline.
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