It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 3 of the NFL. Confidence pools have proven to be tough to start the year, but that’s what makes them so fun. We’ve had a ton of huge upsets and teams winning games that few saw coming. So whether your confidence is shaken or you just want some reinforcement, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the confidence playbook and get our NFL confidence pool picks set for Week 3.
Thursday night we get an absolute thriller (I say sarcastically) between two teams who have struggled massively to open the season. The Atlanta Falcons head to historic Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers. It’s a full weekend of games, with Sunday night featuring the Rams at Broncos. Monday Night Football features the Chicago Bears taking on the Philadelphia Eagles. Last week, eight of our top 10 picks hit; the Buccaneers and Chargers left us hanging.
Can’t Miss – High Confidence Picks
1. Chiefs Over Dolphins
2. 49ers Over Cardinals
3. Eagles Over Bears
4. Seahawks Over Commanders
5. Lions Over Jets
6. Panthers Over Browns
Are the Kansas City Chiefs back? Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. But, the Miami Dolphins are definitely not back. Kansas City has looked great through two games, while Miami has looked pathetic. The Chiefs have played down to their competition at times, but with Patrick Mahomes under center, they have all my confidence to win this one.
Speaking of good teams, the San Francisco 49ers might be the best in the entire league. Arizona shocked the world in Week 1 with their upset of the Chargers, and this is a division matchup, but it won’t be a close one. Arizona showed last week what happens when they play against good teams, as the Seattle Seahawks dismantled them.
Philadelphia gets to host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Unfortunately for Chicago, Caleb Williams will be out a few weeks. Special Agent Bagent, the Bears backup Tyson Bagent, is also in concussion protocol. We could get a Case Keenum start in Primetime. Philadelphia is a good football team, and while the Bears may be alright without Williams, I have a lot of confidence in the Eagles at home.
Seattle has proved through two weeks they aren’t facing a Super Bowl hangover. Even with backup quarterback Drew Lock manning the ship, it’s been a good ship to man for Mike Macdonald. The defense runs like a well-oiled machine, and the offense is good enough to keep stacking wins. Washington will be without their quarterback, Jayden Daniels; this defense should have a heyday with Marcus Mariota.
The Detroit Lions host the New York Jets. Neither of these teams has been exactly what we pictured in 2026. The Lions snuck away with a 1-point win over the Saints in overtime of Week 1. Then got pushed around against the Bills last week. The Jets throttled the Titans, and then almost beat the Packers. However, I’m still confident that the Lions are a good team, and the Jets are just an “ok” team. Give me the Lions in this one.
Carolina looked really solid last week against a bad Atlanta Falcons team. At times, they looked good in Week 1 against a Chicago team that looked like world beaters. Yes, Cleveland beat Tampa last week, but I think that’s more of a Tampa problem. Cleveland didn’t even look that good, and they aren’t a good football team.
Feelin’ Good – Confident Picks
7. Vikings Over Buccaneers
8. Texans Over Colts
9. Giants Over Titans
10. Rams Over Broncos
11. Bills Over Chargers
I mentioned the Browns aren’t a good team. They took down the Buccaneers, making them really not a good team. This is one of the biggest coaching mismatches on the board this week. Todd Bowles should be on the hot seat if he isn’t already. Brian Flores’ defense will run this game. Kyler Murray is also back, and while Carson Wentz played well, Murray was made the starter for a reason.
Houston and Indianapolis are a huge matchup this week. Both AFC South teams are 0-2 and desperate to get their first win and get back on the playoff track. Houston’s defense didn’t look it against the Bills, but they are an elite squad. They’ll be the difference in this game.
The Giants have lost Jaxson Dart to a season-ending knee injury. In steps Jameis Winston to take over the play-calling duties. Winston didn’t look great stepping in against a tough Rams defense on short notice Monday night. However, with a full week of reps with the first team and a game plan built around him, Jameis will thrive in the classic “backup quarterback first game” bump we always seemingly see. Having a bad team like the Titans to face helps.
Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos should be a solid game on Sunday Night Football. Los Angeles embarrassed themselves with the Australia travel deal, but got redemption on Monday night. The Broncos have been slow and sluggish, with too many mistakes in their first two games. They got away with it last week, but this game will look more like when they played the Chiefs.
As bad as the Chargers have looked through two games, this feels like a good spot for them to get right. I fully expect their offense to hang in a shootout with the Bills. However, this Bills team is simply too good. Their offense will win out in a shootout.
Hold Your Breath – True Toss Ups
12. Packers Over Falcons
13. Saints Over Raiders
14. Bengals Over Steelers
15. Ravens Over Cowboys
16. Jaguars Over Patriots
Thursday night is a disgusting matchup between the Falcons and Packers. Michael Penix is finally going to start for Atlanta. The Falcons qualify as a “close your eyes special” this week as a team that underperformed the spread by 21 and is catching points. Green Bay will let them hang around as they did with the Jets. Ultimately, I can’t pick against the Packers at home in this game to win outright.
Saints-Raiders is an interesting game. Both teams have looked good, yet had their fair share of struggles at the same time. In the end, give me the Saints behind a big game behind Tyler Shough, but this one could go either way.
Bengals-Steelers, the ultimate AFC South matchup. This type of game can go either way any given Sunday. That’s why it’s in the toss-ups. However, Cincinnati has clearly been the better team, so we’ll ride with them.
Ravens and Cowboys should be a good matchup. The Ravens’ lack of receiver options hurt them last week, and if this gets to be a shootout, it could hurt again this week. I do still believe they are the better team, however.
I went back and forth so many times on this Jaguars vs. Patriots game; I had no choice but to put it this low. This could be the game of the week, and I could see either team running away with it; I could see it being a shootout; I could see it being a defensive battle. I’ll side with the favorite here, but it’s the truest definition of a toss-up.
