After a wild ride at Bristol Motor Speedway, the very exciting Chase moves to the Midwest and finds Kansas Speedway. The 1.5-mile track produced the closest finish in NASCAR history, and some of the better racing we’ve seen over the past few years. It’s the first 1.5-mile intermediate track since Chicagoland all the way back on Independence Day weekend. The shift marks the first of three straight 1.5-mile tracks as the series heads to Las Vegas and then Charlotte over the next two weeks. Let’s dive into this weekend’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Last week, Joey Logano found himself in victory lane after a late race tussle between Carson Hocevar and Ty Gibbs allowed the three-time champion to sneak by and grab the victory. That vaulted Logano to third in the Chase standings, just 16 points behind Kyle Larson, who takes over the top spot from Denny Hamlin. Hamlin sits one point behind Larson now in second place. Christopher Bell (-17) and Ty Gibbs (-42) round out the top five.
NASCAR decided not to issue any penalties after the post-race scuffle on pit road between Carson Hocevar and Ryan Blaney. Marking another turning point in NASCAR’s “Hell yeah” season and their desire to let the boys have it a little more.
Odds to Win Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway
Denny Hamlin +450
Kyle Larson +450
Christopher Bell +550
Tyler Reddick +600
Ryan Blaney +1000
Chase Briscoe +1000
Bubba Wallace +1200
Ty Gibbs +1200
William Byron +1600
Chase Elliott +1600
Joey Logano +2000
Carson Hocevar +2500
Chris Buescher +3000
Brad Keselowski +4000
Alex Bowman +5000
Ross Chastain +5000
Josh Berry +6000
Austin Cindric +7500
Ryan Preece +7500
Riley Herbst +15000
Daniel Suárez +15000
Shane Van Gisbergen +15000
Erik Jones +15000
Zane Smith +20000
Michael McDowell +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Connor Zilisch +25000
AJ Allmendinger +25000
Austin Dillon +25000
Austin Hill +50000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Noah Gragson +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +50000
Ty Dillon +100000
Cole Custer +100000
Cody Ware +250000
Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway Best Bets
Carson Hocevar Over Ryan Blaney (+110)
Of course the sportsbooks were going to offer this bet, and of course we’re going to bet on it! After their on-track tussle last week, followed by the pit road fight, we get them in a head-to-head matchup the next week here at Kansas Speedway. As I tend to be, I’ll take the Hocevar side of things in this one. You get plus money, which is a nice start. Hocevar beat Blaney last week, both on track and then quite literally off the track. Giving him a 2-0 advantage heading into this week.
RYAN BLANEY AND CARSON HOCEVAR FIGHT AT BRISTOL!!! https://t.co/da4ls6i24P
— Motorsport (@Motorsport) September 20, 2026
Blaney also hasn’t been great at Kansas overall. In 2024, he hit things just right in both races, finishing fourth and third place. Outside of that, his last two finishes here were 24th place, and he hasn’t had a top 10 since 2022. Hocevar’s track record isn’t great, but it’s hard to hold anything before this year against him. He finished 13th in the spring race here despite troubles on pit road. They’ve traded blows (pun intended) on the 1.5’s all season in this head to head, but Hocevar has all the momentum, and it’s a track Blaney isn’t the best at. Give me Hocevar to win the next round in this fight.
Chase Elliott Top 5 (+200)
Chase Elliott is a driver who has been elite at Kansas Speedway. At the time of this writing, if you have access to Hard Rock, Elliott is still -135 for a top 10, another bet I really like. In the last seven races at the track, Elliott has only finished outside of the top 10 once. He’s the defending race winner of the fall event. Over the last 18 Kansas races, 10 times Elliott has finished seventh or better. He’s the only Hendrick car to win on a 1.5-mile track (Texas) this year, and his consistency will be key again this week.
Denny Hamlin to Win ( +450)
Hamlin’s winless streak is growing quickly. It’s been 14 races since his three-race winning streak parked him in victory lane at Pocono. So, what gives? Is the old man losing it? Playoff pressure getting to him? Or is it the style of tracks we’ve been running? That’s my answer. Short tracks, drafting tracks, road courses, 750 horsepower package tracks. Now, we get three straight weeks of what has been Hamlin’s bread and butter. Sitting one point back after 3 races has Hamlin licking his chops for this run of track.
He had a drivetrain issue in May of 2025, so tossing that race out of these numbers. Over the last nine races, he’s nine for nine, finishing in the top, you guessed it, nine. Seven of those have been top-five finishes, with a win and two second-place finishes. Hamlin has three wins this year on “comp” tracks, and a couple more that slipped away late in the race. He returns to form on Sunday and puts another win trophy in his massive trophy case.
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