NFL Week 1 action will conclude with an AFC West divisional rivalry game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Bo Nix leads his Denver Broncos into the belly of the beast to take on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Sean Payton vs. Andy Reid, two Super Bowl-winning coaches and great offensive minds. Let’s dive in and take a look at this week’s Monday Night Football best bets for the Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs.
Both quarterbacks in this game are returning from season-ending injuries. Bo Nix suffered a right ankle fracture late in the Broncos’ overtime win in the Divisional Round of the playoffs over the Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes tore his left ACL and LCL late in the season during a Week 15 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Typically, a torn ACL is viewed as a 12-month recovery, but often times can be shorter. Mahomes is just over nine months into his recovery, but appears to be a full go for Monday night’s game.
The Broncos won both matchups against the Chiefs in 2025. They have won three consecutive games in the series and four of the last five meetings. Bo Nix holds a 3-1 record against the Kansas City Chiefs as a starter. Mahomes, on the other hand, holds a 13-2 career record over the Broncos. So, what gives Monday night?
Kenneth Walker Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
The Super Bowl MVP took a payday and landed himself in Kansas City with the Chiefs. He’s always had a split backfield in Seattle. But with Zach Charbonnet out during the big game, Walker showed us what he could do. He ran all over what had been a tough New England Patriots team. Walker racked up 135 yards on the ground en route to his MVP Trophy.
Kenneth Walker also had 116 yards against the 49ers in the playoffs, and in all three playoff games went over this total. Walker is on a four-game streak of hitting over this number, and he’s done so in five of his last six games. With Patrick Mahomes coming off that knee surgery, I expect the Chiefs to lean heavily into using their new back. If they feed him enough carries, he’ll smash this number even against a good Broncos defense.
Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)
Denver got themselves a shiny new toy in the offseason when they traded with the Miami Dolphins to acquire star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle for a first-round pick, among other things. In the first game with a new star like this, the team is always eager to get him worked in. We saw it Wednesday night with AJ Brown and the New England Patriots before Brown unfortunately suffered his injury.
The Broncos will want to target Waddle early and often in this one, and we just need five catches out of a receiver who does nothing but produce when he’s healthy. Last year, despite being on a struggling team with struggling quarterback play, Waddle still managed at least five catches in 13 games. The Chiefs traded away Trent McDuffie this offseason as well; it’s yet to be seen what their defensive backfield will look like this season.
Game Total: Under 43.5 (-108)
This one is pretty simple for me. Patrick Mahomes is coming off major knee surgery. There is no chance Andy Reid wants to get into a big offensive shootout in this game. Run Kenneth Walker, slow the game down, bleed the clock, and control the game as much as they can will be the goal.
Five of the last six Broncos/Chiefs games have come in under this total as well. Denver has a solid defense, and you rarely want to get into a shootout with Mahomes anyways. Two methodical coaches playing a chess match will have this one operating slowly.
Broncos +2.5 (-102)
There are a couple of factors that have me believing the Denver Broncos will cover this spread and likely come out victorious on Monday night in Kansas City. Mahomes injury is the first factor. I know he’s Superman; I know we haven’t seen many, if any, like him. But just nine months after major knee surgery, it’s going to take him some time.
Nix’s injury was much less serious, and this Denver team should be ready to roll. They are on a revenge tour to finish what they started last year before the Nix playoff injury. It’s gone their way more times than it hasn’t lately, and Kansas City just isn’t what they were a few years ago. It’ll be a tough, drag-out fight, but give me Denver to win the game, or at least keep it within three.
