We are just days away from real, live NFL action! It kicks off Wednesday night with a Super Bowl rematch as the New England Patriots head to Seattle to watch the Seahawks receive their rings. As we continue to search through all the NFL futures markets out there, we find ourselves in the “leaders” section of the sportsbooks, searching for the best bets for most passing touchdowns in the NFL regular season for 2026.
Last season, NFL MVP Matthew Stafford led the league with 46 passing touchdowns. It was a pretty easy win for the then 37-year-old quarterback. The player he swapped teams with in a blockbuster trade from a few years ago, Jared Goff, had the second most at just 34. Drake Maye, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence rounded out the top five. Joe Burrow topped the league in 2024 with 43 touchdown passes, and Dak Prescott had the most with just 36 in 2023.
Most Passing Touchdown Odds
Joe Burrow +550
Matthew Stafford +675
Dak Prescott +800
Jared Goff +900
Brock Purdy +1000
Trevor Lawrence +1500
Drake Maye +1600
Caleb Williams +1800
Jordan Love +1800
Patrick Mahomes +1800
Josh Allen +2000
Justin Herbert +2200
Baker Mayfield +2500
Sam Darnold +2500
Lamar Jackson +2500
Bo Nix +2500
Jayden Daniels +3000
CJ Stroud +3500
Jalen Hurts +4000
Daniel Jones +4000
Kyler Murray +4500
Tyler Shough +4500
Aaron Rodgers +5000
Jaxson Dart +6000
Bryce Young +7500
Cam Ward +7500
Jacoby Brissett +8000
Geno Smith +8000
Tua Tagovailoa +10000
Malik Willis +10000
Kirk Cousins +10000
Fernando Mendoza +10000
Michael Penix Jr. +12500
Deshaun Watson +15000
JJ McCarthy +15000
Shedeur Sanders +15000
Carson Beck +20000
Justin Fields +20000
Joe Flacco +20000
Most Passing Touchdown Best Bets
Joe Burrow (+550)
The toughest task for the favorite to lead this market is just staying healthy. If Burrow can do that, there’s no question he’ll be in the conversation for league leaders when it comes to passing touchdowns. The last time he had a healthy full season in 2024, he topped the league with 43 touchdowns. In 2022, Burrow was second only to Patrick Mahomes with 35 touchdown passes. This Bengals offense remains one of the best in the entire NFL, and having Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to throw the ball to doesn’t hurt his case. Their defense should be improved from last season, but it still won’t be great. Leaving Burrow to do what he does: throw touchdown passes.
Drake Maye (+1600)
Drake Maye has burst onto the scene as a budding superstar quarterback. He finished third on the touchdown list last season with 31 passing touchdowns. The most impressive part about it all was his pass catchers. Hunter Henry led the team, but then it was Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs, and Demario Douglas. Now, the team has added AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs. Massive upgrades in the receiving game. Add in what Tre’Veon Henderson can do in the passing game and expect him to get a lot more work. It’s another year more comfortable in the same system, and a quarterback on the rise. At 16/1 it’s worth it.
Caleb Williams (+1800)
“I want to be the highest-scoring offense ever, which happens to be the 2013 Denver Broncos. I know how many points per game they scored [37.9], and I want to surpass them. I want shutouts. I want blowouts.” Those are the comments Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson made to reporters recently. Peyton Manning had 55 passing touchdowns that season. If there’s an offensive mad scientist mind in the league that can make that happen, it’s Johnson. Williams had 27 passing touchdowns last season, in just the first year in Johnson’s offense. This team is ready to explode, and their coach wants to prove a point. At 16/1 for Maye and 18/1 for Williams, this is the real sweet spot for this market.
Kyler Murray (+4500)
If you want a longer shot option, Kyler Murray is the guy to pause at. He’s a solid professional quarterback who fell on hard times in Arizona. Now, you put him on one of the better offensive units in the league. With a quarterback genius in Kevin O’Connell running the show. O’Connell took a lowly Sam Darnold who’d failed and bounced around and put him fifth on this list in 2024 with 35 passing touchdowns. It led to Darnold getting a huge contract and winning a Super Bowl. O’Connell, his system, his team, and, oh yeah, Justin Jefferson can all contribute to a long-shot Kyler Murray surprising and landing atop the passing touchdown mountain.
