As I dive into my last NFL Futures market for this month, I had to get in on the “To have more wins than” bets. This is pitting two teams against each other and projecting which team will have more wins out of the two. When I initially earmarked this market to look at, plenty of books were offering it. However, now as we draw towards the season, many major books have dropped it. Don’t worry. Underdog Fantasy has us covered in their pick’em section. If you don’t have Underdog, now is a great time to sign up using promo code OFFSGPN to get $50 in bonus funds when you play just $5!
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NFL Futures: “To Have More Wins Than” Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (1.72X) Or New England Patriots (1.82X)
The first teams to look at in the to have more wins than picks are the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots. Two teams that have been AFC powerhouses recently. Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes, back from an ACL injury, and Andy Reid. They’ve proven to be a formidable duo as a coach-quarterback combination over the past decade.
However, I think the Patriots have the better roster in 2026. The Patriots reached the Super Bowl last year at a record of 14-3. This offseason, they added A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker. Drake Maye already finished as the MVP runner-up and now has a true number one wide receiver. Plus, the rebuild of the interior line should help with what was a brutal playoff sack rate.
Kansas City is coming off a 6-11 season. Mahomes is coming back from December knee surgery and should be healthy. However, his supporting cast leaves a little to be desired, outside of the addition of Kenneth Walker. Current projection models show the Patriots winning an average of 9.9 games while Kansas City sits at 8.
Those gaps matter in an NFL Futures pick. New England will face a first-place schedule and likely have some regression from 14 games. However, they are still a club back on the rise with a star quarterback. Kansas City needs a perfect bounce-back just to climb up to double-digit wins.
My To Have More Wins Picks This Round: Patriots (1.82X)
Dallas Cowboys (1.61X) Or Jacksonville Jaguars (1.92X)
The next matchup for my to have more wins picks sees an NFC and AFC team against each other. The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Dallas Cowboys both feature high-powered offenses, though. Jacksonville won 13 games in 2025 and closed the year on an eight-game surge.
Trevor Lawrence played some of his best football under Liam Coen, averaging 265 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns over the final seven games. Lawrence also ran for nine touchdowns. Travis Hunter should be healthier after missing a lot of last season, and Josh Hines-Allen still wrecks pocket integrity.
Dallas went 7-9-1 last season. It wasn’t the offense’s fault. It was the defense that was historically bad. They brought in a new coordinator and are switching to a 3-4 scheme. Still, it won’t be an overnight fix. The Cowboys also draw one of the harder schedules in the league and have six primetime games.
PFF simulations and other projected models I’ve seen give Jacksonville 9.44 wins and Dallas 8.84. Sportsbooks also have the Jaguars at 8.5 after their 13-win season. Coen’s offense locked in enough that I’m not worried about that much regression. I think the Cowboys will be better, but not enough to compete with the Jaguars.
My To Have More Wins Picks This Round: Jaguars (1.92X)
Cincinnati Bengals (1.59X) Or Chicago Bears (2.04X)
This next battle in my to have more wins picks sees another AFC vs. NFC team. Chicago is coming off winning the NFC North with an 11-6 record in Ben Johnson’s first season. Caleb Williams led them to seven fourth-quarter comebacks and now enters Year 2 in the same scheme. Continuity is key for a young quarterback.
Cincinnati is coming off a 6-11 year. While Joe Burrow remains a top-shelf passer, his health has become unreliable. The Bengals did add some defensive help in Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe. They needed that. However, the offensive line still has a lot of question marks. The current market win totals give the Bengals a slight edge. However, that assumes Burrow stays upright.
One thing that helps the Bears is their rest edge. They have a plus-15 net rest differential, which is one of the largest in the NFL in decades. They’ve already proven they can perform at a high level. Call it luck if you want. However, they took the LA Rams to the very end of a playoff game. I love the value you get here.
My To Have More Wins Picks This Round: Bears (2.04X)
New York Giants (1.61X) or Atlanta Falcons (1.92X)
Next up in teams against each other are the New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons. The Giants are a slight favorite here at 1.61X due to their quarterback picture being clearer. Jaxon Dart lifted New York as a rookie. The offense posted roughly a break-even EPA with him on the field. Now, he is under the tutelage of John Harbaugh. Malik Nabers is back and healthy. He provides an explosive playmaker for Dart to sling it to. Cam Skattebo is healthy and as aggressive as ever.
Atlanta has talent at the skill positions with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. While we expect Tua Tagovailoa to be the starter, Michael Penix was cleared from his third ACL tear. Kevin Stefanski will likely roll out Tua. However, it’s yet to be seen how long of a leash he’ll have.
Both of these teams are projected around 7.4 wins on most models. The stability of New York and Jaxson Dart is what I’m leaning on, though. The Falcons have not reached the playoffs since 2017, and I expect the Giants to exceed expectations this year. Dart already showed he can keep New York competitive when he’s healthy.
My To Have More Wins Picks This Round: Giants (1.61X)
Green Bay Packers (2.13X) or Detroit Lions (1.49X)
The most interesting thing about this to have more wins pick is that you’re basically deciding who will finish ahead of the other in the NFC North. We all know, well, at least as a Bears fan I do, that the Bears will finish number one. So which of these two teams will finish second?
The Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the league after their fourth-place finish last year. They also open with a pretty soft first five weeks. Current projection models show Detroit finishing with 10.61 wins and Green Bay with 9.92. Also, the Lions play most of the middle of the season indoors or in mild climates. That setting protects an offense that is built on timing and explosive plays. However, we have yet to see how offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will attack.
Green Bay went 9-7-1 last season. They return their starting quarterback, but otherwise had a pretty significant roster turnover from players who played over 50% of snaps last year. Micah Parsons is also working back from an ACL tear and will likely not be available until Week 5 at the earliest.
Dan Campbell still has a young core that isn’t afraid to risk big plays. I don’t see the Packers outpacing the Lions this year.
My To Have More Wins Picks This Round: Giants (1.49X)
