If you didn’t know, last year I ran simulations on NCAA26 and used those results to place some bets. It was ridiculously successful. This year, I did the same thing with NCAA27. You can find those on my author page. However, why just limit this to the NCAA? Now I’m simulating a season on EA Sports Madden NFL 27 and making bets based on the outcomes! Let’s take a look at the ultimate NFL betting guide, based on Madden 27 simulations.
The Ultimate NFL Betting Guide Based On Madden 27 Simulations
Yes, I’m at it again. I’m making NFL futures bets based on Madden 27. Is it a little crazy? Sure. However, I had so much luck in college football bets last year that I had to try it with Madden. Remember when we rode the Miami Hurricanes 40/1 ticket all the way to the National Championship? That was because of NCAA 26 last year. Spoiler alert! It’s the same game developers that develop Madden. So, crazy or not, there’s proof in the pudding that sometimes those number-crunching nerds and game developers know what they’re doing.
So here we are, simulating Madden through a full season. I did 15-minute quarters, turned off computer trades, and turned the injuries off. Let’s see what NFL futures it gives us in Madden’s NFL division winner predictions! For the record, this is all based on 100 simulated seasons.
AFC Division Winner Predictions
What’s an NFL betting guide without division winners? Nothing. Let’s start with the AFC division winners according to Madden.
In the AFC North, the Ravens (-112) won 60% of the simulations. They were followed by the Bengals (+184), who won it 20% of the time, and the Steelers (+510), who won 20% of the time. Leave it to the game developers to give us a favorite right away. However, at -112, there’s still plenty of profit.
The AFC South was a little more interesting. The current favorites are the Texans (+110). However, they only won 13% of the simulations. Bettors may assume it was the Jaguars that won it the most. However, that’d be wrong. In fact, the simulations had the Titans winning the division more times than the Jaguars. Instead, it was the Colts (+380) who won just under 60% of the simulations.
In the AFC East, only two teams won the division. The Bills (-136) won it slightly over 50% of the simulations, while the Patriots (+125) were slightly under. This division will come down to these two again, which is no surprise. However, the simulations see the Bills taking the division back this year.
It’s possible, looking at the AFC West results, that the game developers don’t like the Chiefs. Perhaps they burned them on a bet in the past. They only had the Chiefs (+160) winning the division 6% of the time. That’s a little less than they had the Raiders (+2000). Instead, it was a battle between the Chargers (+190) and the Broncos (+225). The Chargers won 40% of the time, while the Broncos won 46% of the time. This will be a close race, but the game favors the Broncos.
NFL Betting Guide Results: Bills (-136), Ravens (-112), Colts (+380), Broncos (+225). Parlayed together, that pays just over 50/1.
NFC Division Winner Predictions
Let’s move along in our NFL betting guide to the NFC division winners. As much as I was hoping the developers would favor the man on the cover in the NFC North, they didn’t. They had the Lions (+170) winning 73% of the time. The Bears (+305) won 20% of the time, while the Packers (+225) won 7% of the time.
In the NFC South, the game likes what the Falcons (+400) did in the offseason and had them winning the division 53% of the time. They’re the dogs in the division, so it’s interesting to see them winning it in the game. The Bucs (+170) trailed them, winning 33% of the time, while the Saints (+270) won the remaining 14%.
In the NFC East, Madden 27 simulations had the Eagles (+120) winning 66% of the time. The division dog, the Giants (+600), trailed them, winning 21% of the time. The Cowboys (+205) won it the remaining 13% of the time.
The NFC West was the only division without a winner over 50%. The Rams (-105) won 46% of the simulations while the Seahawks (+215) won 40% of the time. The 49ers (+305) won the last 14%.
NFL Betting Guide Results: Lions (+170), Falcons (+400), Eagles (+120), Rams (-105). Parlayed together, that pays just under 57/1.
To Make The Playoffs
The next bet we’ll take a look at in our NFL betting guide is teams to make the playoffs. The list was led by the Broncos (-140), the Eagles (-186), and the Lions (-220). They all made the playoffs 87% of the time. Even just parlaying those teams together, you can get a nice +283 payout.
Following those teams, the Colts (+170) and the Rams (-460) were next, making the playoffs 81% of the time. Adding those two bumps our parlay up to +1160. We aren’t done there, though. The Ravens (-390) were next, making the playoffs 75% of the time.
The next teams include the Bengals (-200) and the Bills (-320), who made the playoffs 69% of the time. The Chargers (-168) and the Seahawks (-225) were next, making the playoffs just over 60% of the simulations. If you parlayed those 10 teams to make the playoffs, it would pay +7083.
There were only three teams that never made the playoffs. They were the Dolphins, Jets, and Commanders. Yes, even the Vikings and the Cardinals made it one time each.
Super Bowl Winner
There were three teams that made the Super Bowl the most. The Eagles made it the most times at 37%. The Broncos and the Rams trailed them at 31% of the time. Those three teams were followed by the Bengals at 25%. No other team exceeded 12%.
If you were to take a bet on naming the finalist, you can get the Bengals and Rams at +4300. The Broncos and Rams sit at +4400. The Bengals and Eagles would pay +10000, while the Broncos and Eagles to make the Super Bowl is +10500.
However, there can only be one Super Bowl winner. Despite not making it the most amount of times, the NFL Betting guide based on Madden simulations would have you place a wager on the Broncos (2000). They won the Super Bowl 25% of the time. They were trailed by the Eagles (+1600), who won it 19% of the time. The next closest was the Rams (+550) at 13%. Can we ride a 20/1 Super Bowl ticket all the way to the Championship like we did last year in NCAA?
NFL Betting Guide For Awards
For the awards section of your NFL futures bets, we’ll start with the MVP. Justin Herbert (+1000) won the award the most amount of times. He was followed by Joe Burrow (+850). Other names that won it more than once include Lamar (+800), Bo Nix (+3500), and Caleb Williams (+1200). There were no non-quarterbacks on the list of winners.
For the Coach of the Year, John Harbaugh (+600) is the favorite and won it the most in the Madden Simulations. He was trailed by Jesse Minter (+1000). They are both the favorites, so it makes sense.
For Offensive Player of the Year, there were a plethora of names ranging from JSN, Herbert, Goff, Puka, Lamar, Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, Stafford, and Chase. Even guys like Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, and Quentin Johnston won it at one point. However, the player who won it the most was CeeDee Lamb (+2500).
For Defensive Player of the Year, there were also a lot of names. They ranged from Maxx Crosby to Nik Bonitto and Danielle Hunter. Aidan Hutchinson and Jared Verse both won as well. However, it was Zach Baun (+10000) who won it the most. He was trailed closely by TJ Watt (+2000).
Remember that injuries were turned off when we talk about the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Depending on how much time he misses, he isn’t likely to win. However, the player who won it the most was Jordyn Tyson (+4000). He was trailed by Makai Lemon (+1500). On the defensive side of the ball, the Defensive Rookie of the Year was won the most times, by far, by David Bailey (+500).
Statistical Leaders
We’ll close out our ultimate NFL betting guide with some statistical leader NFL futures bets. Starting with passing yards, winning it an overwhelming 43% of the time, was Justin Herbert (+1500). He was trailed by Joe Burrow (+750), who led the league in passing 31% of the time.
For the player to have the most rushing yards, there was a tie leading the league 38% of the time, with Kyren Williams (+2000) as the first name. Oddly enough, he was tied by Cam Skattebo (+8000). Jonathan Taylor (+600) was the most after them.
The receiving yardage leader varied quite a bit. Even names like Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, Quentin Johnston, Chris Godwin, and Michael Wilson showed up. However, the player that showed up the most was Ja’Marr Chase (+600). He was slightly above the current favorite, Puka Nacua (+550).
Good luck with your bets. I wouldn’t put the mortgage on these. However, it’s a fun way to sprinkle some cash on some NFL futures and see if they can get you a nice payout.
