There are a lot of ways to go about betting on college football and determining your sports betting picks! One way is to listen to The College Experience, the best college football sports betting podcast! Another, maybe more unorthodox way, is to go through the EA Sports CFB27 video game, simulating the season 100 different times. We did the latter for this article to create the ultimate college football betting guide! Let’s dive in and take a look!
We Simulated CFB 27 100 Times To Create The Ultimate College Football Betting Guide
College Football Playoffs
To start the ultimate college football betting guide based on our 100 simulations of CFB 27, let’s take a look at who made the playoffs the most. If you are new to college football sports betting, you can make betting picks on which teams make the playoffs.
In the 100 simulations, the team that made the playoffs the most is Miami, which made it 91 of 100 times. They were followed by Ohio State (77), SMU (69), and Texas Tech (61). Other teams above 50 times included Oklahoma (59), BYU (58), Indiana (55), Ole Miss (55), and Notre Dame (52).
The biggest favorites to make the CFP this year are Notre Dame (-800), Ohio State (-360), Indiana (-350), Oregon (-320), Miami (-280), and Georgia (-240). You’ll notice that, of those, only Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Miami made it over 50% of the 100 simulations. You could parlay those three teams together for a friendlier -105 parlay. This is the first play of our college football betting picks on our college football betting guide. But we aren’t here for juiced bets.
However, last year we made some nice money betting Miami to make the playoffs based on this game. Therefore, let’s look at some of the value. SMU is +350 to make it, yet in the game they made it 69% of the time. I also like taking Oklahoma at +210. Will quarterback John Mateer be able to lead them to the CFP? The game seems to think so, and so do I.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 27:
*SMU to make the playoffs (+350)
*Oklahoma to make the playoffs (+210)
*Parlay: Ohio State, Notre Dame and Miami to make playoffs (-105)
Championship Game Data
Maybe you don’t want to make your college football sports betting picks until the betting guide has shown you how many times these teams actually advanced in the playoffs. The team that advanced the most to the final four is the Ohio State Buckeyes, who made it 32 of 100 times. This is down from last year’s simulation when the team that made it the most amount of times was 44. However, I still like the value at 32%.
Miami was second with 25, followed by Oklahoma (24), Ole Miss (16), and SMU (16). Last year we road a 40/1 Miami to win the National Championship all the way to the final. It allowed a nice hedge opportunity as well as a nice cash out opportunity. Can Miami provide us that same value this year? Not exactly. They’re currently +650 to make the final, while Ohio State is +225. I don’t mind sprinkling a little on both of these. My favorite is to take Ole Miss (+2000) and Oklahoma (+2200). This gives us some nice value to ride throughout the season and hedge opportunities in the post-season.
There’s no Carson Beck, and they lost some key pieces on defense, but I still really like the value on Miami.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
To Reach CFP Championship Game: Ohio State (+225), Miami (+650), Ole Miss (+2000), and Oklahoma (+2200). I’m staggering these, with more money on Ohio State and Miami, and a sprinkle on Ole Miss and Oklahoma.
National College Football Champion Picks
What’s an ultimate college football betting guide without some sports betting picks predicting the National Champion? Obviously, since we simulated CFB 27 100 times, we had 100 National Champions. Here’s what we learned about what we should be betting on for college football.
Last year Ohio State was the favorite to win the National Championship, and they didn’t win it once in our simulations. That proved to be an accurate prediction. This year, they’re the favorite to win it again at +600. However, unlike last year, the game agrees this year. They have Ohio State winning the National Championship 27% of the time.
The only other two teams to win a National Championship over 10% of the time were Miami (13%) and Ole Miss (10%). Miami is currently +1100 to win the Championship, quite a change from last year’s +4000. However, the game called them making it accurately last year, so we have to put a little on it, don’t we? Ole Miss is sitting at +3000. Trinidad Chambliss has a lot of eyes on him and for good reason. For what it’s worth, Oklahoma won 9 of the 100 Championships and is currently at +3500.
Apparently, on paper, the algorithms of CFB 27 simulations love Ohio State more than they did last year. They also still like Miami. It would be a crazy college football sports betting pick to hit, and so we have to include it in our betting guide! Especially after coming so close last year.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 27:
Put a little on the top three teams. Ohio State (+600), Miami (+1100), and Ole Miss (+3000).
College Football Heisman Candidates
This is where the game was pretty far off last year. With so many different players, this would likely be the hardest part to predict. However, we run the simulations and pull the data either way.
Before we dive into the top college football sports betting picks for the Heisman, let’s expand the betting guide to look at who finished as a top-four candidate the most. Out of 100 CFB 27 simulations, only six players finished as top-four Heisman candidates more than 20 times out of the 100 simulations.
Finishing as a top-four Heisman Candidate over 20 times were the following players. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (57%) of the time finished in the top four the most. He’s currently +1300 to win the Heisman. Next was LSU’s Sam Leavitt, who finished in the top four 48% of the time. Leavitt is +2000 to win.
Auburn’s Byrum Brown is a long shot at +5000, but made the top four 33% of the time. Both USC quarterback Jayden Maiava and Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer made it 27% of the time. They are both +2500.
Finally, just like last year, SMU’s Kevin Jennings was one of the top finalists. He made the top four Heisman candidates 23% of the time and is currently +8000 to win it. For the record, favorite CJ Carr did not make the top four at any time. Arch Manning made it 19% of the time.
College Football Heisman Winner
So, the question now is, who won the Heisman the most?
The same guy that made the top four the most times was the Heisman winner the most times. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss won the Heisman 26% of the 100 simulations. Again, this bet was off last year. However, why not sprinkle a little on it?
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 26:
Heisman Winner: Trinidad Chambliss (+1300)
Conference Championship Winners Sports Betting Picks
AAC, ACC, Big 12, and Big 10 Winners
What kind of ultimate college football betting guide would this be without some conference championship picks to bet? In our 100 CFB 27 simulations, we learned who has a chance of winning each conference. Let’s see where the college football sports betting values are for conference winners. This is also where we made some nice cash last year.
Let’s start with the AAC. Out of 100 simulations, Memphis (+600) won a little over half of the time, with 51 conference championship wins. UAB (+30000) was the next closest, with 13. A 6/1 sprinkle seems like a great play.
The ACC wasn’t as clear-cut last year. However, this year the algorithms had Miami (-136) winning the ACC 62% of the time! Duke won it last year, and now Duke’s quarterback plays for Miami. Can he win his second conference championship in a row? The game seems to think so. They are favorites for a reason. SMU (+700) was the second-most-winning team in the ACC, winning 24% of the time.
The Big 12 had scattered results with two different teams winning over 30% of the time. BYU (+550) won it the most at 33% of the 100 simulations. They were followed closely by Texas Tech (-105) at 31%. I’d put money on Texas Tech but put a little on BYU as well, given they’re +550.
The Big 10 showed a little love to Indiana at 13% of the wins. However, Ohio State was the dominant team, winning the conference 53% of the time. They’re currently the favorites at +180 and the video game simulations tend to agree with it.
CUSA, MAC, MWC, SEC, & SUn Belt Winners
The current favorite to win the Conference USA championship is Liberty at +260. The game simulations agreed and had them winning the conference 31 times. The next closest was Jacksonville State (+450), who won 26% of the simulations.
The MAC had a lot of mixed results. However, only one team won the conference over 20% of the simulations. Western Michigan (+360) is the current favorite on the books, and the game had them winning 28 times. They were followed by Miami (OH) at 14 times.
With Boise State out of the way UNLV is the favorite to win the MWC at +260. They did win it 50% of the time in the simulations. However, North Dakota State (+300) also did well, winning 27% of the time. UNLV still seems like the better bet at this point, though.
The Pac-12 is back, and Boise State is the favorite at +164. They had the best showing out of all conferences, winning the Pac-12 conference championship a whopping 82% of the time. The game makes it seem like easy money, and you know I’m taking it.
The SEC consisted of two teams that won it the most, and none of them were named Georgia. 26% of the time, Oklahoma (+1300) won the conference, and 26% of the time Ole Miss (+1100) won the conference. This conference had some of the biggest discrepancies based on favorites on the books.
Finally, the Sun Belt saw Appalachian State win 27% of the time. They were followed by Arkansas State at 16%. App State is +1800 while Arkansas State is +1150. App State is our biggest dog to win the most amount of times. Sun Belt favorites James Madison only won the conference 11 times. In a conference so big with two divisions, anything can happen.
College Football Betting Guide Picks Based On 100 Simulations of CFB 27:
AAC Winner: Memphis (+600)
Big 10: Ohio State (+180)
C-USA Winner: Liberty (+260)
MWC: UNLV (+260)
Pac 12: Boise State (+164)
SEC: Ole Miss (+1100) / Oklahoma (+1300)
Sun Belt: App State (+1800 – why not)
Parlay: Liberty, UNLV, and Boise State (+3321) – if you’re feeling risky, add in Ohio State to make it +9480.
