It feels a little weird this week to have no NASCAR and no big international racing at all this weekend. All three of NASCAR’s top series, along with IndyCar and F1, are all on break. However, we don’t take breaks from racing and betting here at SGPN. That means only one thing: it’s time to reassess the futures market and who might be the best bet to take home the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. For the O’Reilly and Truck series as well as Formula One futures bets, tune into the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, where we covered all four series this week.
The 2026 season has just four races left before the Chase starts. NASCAR did away with the playoffs format this year and went back to the old “Chase for the Cup” style of postseason, with some new twists. 16 drivers make the Chase, similar to the playoffs. However, win and you are in, is no longer a thing. Playoff points are gone; cut lines and eliminations are gone as well. They’ll reset everyone when the Chase starts, and you’ll be awarded bonus points based on your Chase “seeding.” From there on, it’s 10 races, most points wins. Stage points, fastest lap points, and a 15-point bonus for wins will all be huge factors in determining the champion.
When the reset occurs, the #1 seed will have 2100 points. The #2 seed will have 2075, with #3 at 2065. Seed #4 will start at 2060, and then each position down will start with five fewer points. The final driver in, the #16 seed, will begin the Chase with 2000 points. This gives the #1 driver a full 100-point advantage over 16th place. According to Racing Insights, “85% of the champions came from the top six seeds after 25,000 simulations were run on how the 2026 Chase could unfold.”
Four drivers have locked themselves into the Chase. Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and Ty Gibbs are all guaranteed a shot at the 2026 championship, assuming they start the next four races. They are simply racing for seeding at this point in time. I would highly suggest shopping odds around on any books you have available; there are wide sweeping differences in odds from book to book.
The Chase picture is coming into focus with only four races left until the postseason. pic.twitter.com/gsXOGuCgSh
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 27, 2026
Updated Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Championship
Denny Hamlin +125
Tyler Reddick +400
Ryan Blaney +650
Christopher Bell +900
Kyle Larson +1100
Chase Elliott +1600
Ty Gibbs +1600
Chase Briscoe +2000
Joey Logano +3500
William Byron +3500
Carson Hocevar +5000
Bubba Wallace +7000
Chris Buescher +7000
Shane Van Gisbergen +7000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Ross Chastain +30000
Erik Jones +35000
Alex Bowman +40000
Austin Cindric +40000
Ryan Preece +40000
2026 NASCAR Championship Best Bets
Kyle Larson (+1100)
It has been a struggle for Kyle Larson in 2026. The reigning champion’s problems really began at the 2025 Indianapolis 500, where he crashed out of the race and followed it up with a wreck in the Coca-Cola 600. Larson is now on a 45-race winless streak in the Cup Series. Yet, he still managed to win the championship last season. He’s generally the big favorite and hard to bet on, but with Hard Rock laying a line like this out there, my interest is piqued. Larson has fallen to eighth in the standings, but sits just 21 points outside of fifth place.
Despite the seeming struggles they’ve had, Larson and his team have had speed. Execution and bad luck have been the problem. Using the data compiled so far this season from my friends at WintheRace.info, Larson has the fourth-best driver rating in 2026. He has the fourth best speed rating, fifth most fastest laps, and is fourth best in average running position. If he use that speed, his immense talent, and finish, Larson can be scary quick. I wouldn’t bet him lower than 10/1, but at the number he’s too good not to jump on.
Chase Briscoe (+2000)
It’s shocking to me you can get a Joe Gibbs Racing car of this caliber at this number. Chase Briscoe’s season started out a little rough, but they’ve turned things around. Over the last five races, a wreck at Atlanta is Briscoe’s only finish outside of the top four. In that span, his teammate Ty Gibbs is the only driver who has scored more points than Briscoe.
That’s exactly the type of form needed over the 10 races in the Chase for Briscoe to become a champion. As it sits, he’s seventh in the standings, but only 15 points behind Carson Hocevar in fifth place. It’s no secret the Toyotas have been the best cars, Joe Gibbs Racing in particular. Briscoe has the ability to go out and run through these playoffs. It’s crazy Caesar’s Sportsbook is hanging this number.
Joey Logano (+3500)
I know, Joey Logano? Have I watched a race this year? Logano would kill to have the struggles Larson has had. But underneath that big bald head and goofy smile, there is a stone-cold assassin. When Joey has won all three of his championships, he’s never been the favorite. Yes, those were all in the old format. But nobody is better at playing to the rules than Joey Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe.
Logano is also coming off three straight top 10 runs. If this team is hitting its stride at the right time, they could be dangerous fast. For what it’s worth, all three of Logano’s championships have come in even years. Never sleep on the Penske #22. At 35/1 on BetMGM, he’s worth a bet.
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