Out with June, and into the heat of July. That means we’re ever so closer to the start of the NFL season. With free agency and the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, we’re getting a solid picture of what each team should look like in the 2026 season. Today, as we continue to dive into NFL futures, we’re going to look at the over/unders for the best AFC season team points bets.
Los Angeles Chargers Over 415.5 Points Scored
There’s no offensive unit more excited to watch in 2026 than the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert is a baller. Jim Harbaugh has assembled a great team. Now, they’ve added a superstar play caller in Mike McDaniel to the coaching staff. Say what you will about him as a head coach, although he has his moments of success. He’s nothing short of an offensive guru. His offense had Tua Tagovailoa leading the NFL in passing yards.
Last year, it was a below-average year for the Chargers. They had a slew of injuries, and the scheme just wasn’t working. They averaged 21.6 points per game and ended the year with 368 total points scored in the 2025 season. In 2024, they showed what they could be, racking up 402 total points. If they can get that average to just under 24 points per game this season, with a hopefully healthier year for the offense. Omarion Hampton should be set to take a huge step in year two, especially if he can stay healthy. Justin Herbert will be an MVP candidate, and this is a team everyone will be talking about. McDaniel pushes them over the edge on this bet.
Tennessee Titans Under 340.5 Points Scored
The Tennessee Titans are another team that made a splashy hire on the offensive side of the ball. Brian Daboll is a bit of an offensive genius himself. However, he isn’t walking into Justin Herbert and Omarion Hampton. He’s getting Cam Ward and Calvin Ridley. It’s a much taller task for Daboll to turn this struggling offense around. Overall, I’d expect this Titans team to be much improved. With Robert Saleh in charge, that means their defense too. Which could lead to fewer scoring chances for the offense, who may not have to be all out all the time.
Last season, only the Browns and Raiders scored fewer points than the Tennessee Titans. They averaged just 16.7 points per game. Scoring a total of 284 points on the year. They’d need to improve that to over 20 points per game in 2026, and I don’t believe that much in this team or offense.
Houston Texans Over 380.5 Points Scored
Back to the positive side of things, the Houston Texans are another team that I love going into 2026, and when it comes to this bet, they are my favorite bet. A playoff team a year ago, this Houston Texans team was a good one. They battled a slow start and missing CJ Stroud for multiple games. Yet, they still ended the year scoring 404 points in total.
Their defensive unit is strong; you could argue that means they won’t have to score as much. I’d argue the defense will score, and put them in more scoring positions like it did last year. Even if the Texans just have an average full season and do better than that slow start last year, they should cruise past this number in 2026.
Kansas City Chiefs Under 415.5 Points Scored
We’ll balance it out with a nice under to finish up the AFC season points total card. The Kansas City Chiefs are always the flashy item, the flashy toy, the flashy offense. But are they really? Last year, Mahomes went down, so we’ll cut them a break. But in 2024, they only scored 385 points on the year. Surely in 2023 they smashed the over, right? Wrong. Just 371 points were scored in 2023. Now they did lead the league in 2022, and cruised past this number. But this isn’t the 2022 team.
Will Mahomes even start the year? We still don’t know. If he does, is he 2022 Mahomes? Good chance, no. Travis Kelce isn’t getting any younger; Ray Rice, I mean Rashee Rice, could get in trouble at any given second. The Chiefs will be a good team. But they’ve been a good team the last few years and haven’t hit their total either. It’s not panic in KC; it’s just not what it once was.
