It’s right and left turns for the NASCAR Cup Series this weekend for the final time in 2026. With the Roval being removed from the schedule in favor of the Charlotte oval, Sonoma marks the fourth and final road course of 2026. Let’s jump into this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.
Last week delivered a thriller at Coronado as Corey Heim snagged his first career win in just his 13th career start. Doing so in a part-time ride was pretty impressive! Most of the drivers and teams have stayed out on the West Coast this weekend, and now they head to wine country to take on the Sonoma Raceway, which has been on the Cup Series schedule since 1989. They run the “Club Circuit,” which spans 1.99 miles long with 12 turns.
Odds to Win the Toyota/Save Mart 350
Shane Van Gisbergen -150
Connor Zilisch +700
Tyler Reddick +800
Kyle Larson +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Ty Gibbs +1600
Chris Buescher +2500
Michael McDowell +2000
Chase Briscoe +2200
William Byron +2200
AJ Allmendinger +3300
Chase Elliott +4000
Ross Chastain +5000
Ryan Preece +5500
Carson Hocevar +5500
Daniel Suarez +6000
Christopher Bell +6000
Austin Hill +8000
Bubba Wallace +8000
Alex Bowman +8000
Denny Hamlin +10000
Joey Logano +10000
Austin Cindric +10000
Zane Smith +10000
Todd Gilliland +17500
Brad Keselowski +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Noah Gragson +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Josh Berry +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Ricky Stenhouse +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Austin Dillon +50000
Erik Jones +50000
Cody Ware +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway
Chase Elliott Top 10 (-105)
There is no bet I love more this week than this one. Sonoma tends to be a track where the same drivers find their way to the front. If a driver has a good history here, they tend to repeat it. Chase Elliott has loved this Sonoma course. Elliott is four for four in the NextGen era, finishing inside the top 10. He’s also finished inside the top five in the last three starts here. In total over his nine races at the track, if you take out his first start and an engine issue in 2019, Elliott has never finished worse than 10th position. He finished just outside of the top 10 last week and seventh at COTA earlier this year. Elliott made the “car lift” this week on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, where we bet him all the way to winning the race at 40/1.
Chase Elliott Over William Byron (-115)
I’m all in on Chase Elliott this week. That includes taking him over his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, William Byron. When you match the two up here at Sonoma, it’s not particularly close. Elliott is four for four, beating Byron out in the NextGen era. In his seven starts here, Byron’s only finish better than Elliott was that 2019 race where Elliott had engine issues, and Byron managed a 19th-place finish. In the NextGen era over the last four years, Elliott has beaten Byron by an average of 10 spots. Elliott owns Byron at this track.
Kyle Larson Over Connor Zilisch (+120)
In lieu of the winner pick, which usually goes here, seeing as SVG is -150 and likely to win this one, I’ll go with another head-to-head matchup. Connor Zilisch is a great talent, and I’ve already bet him to win on Saturday. But on Sunday, he’s yet to finish better than 14th in his Cup Series career on a road course. He’s shown some speed; he’s shown some glimpses. But until there are results, I’m going to continue to fade him.
Kyle Larson, like Chase Elliott, loves this track. Outside of a 35th-place finish last year with late troubles, Larson won this race in both 2024 and 2021, and has finished in the top 15 in the last six races prior to last season. Take the veteran over the kid at a track that leans toward veterans in general.
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