With the kick-off to World Cup 2026 days away, and all 12 group previews under our belts, it’s time to look at the big picture and choose our winner. Spain, France, and England, lead the way, with a bunch of top class teams in the tier behind. Dangers lurk at every turn, not to mention the tournament dark horses. One big team always flops, and which underdog will make the big run? Mal and Baz have made all of their World Cup picks and the entire tournament is covered on the World Cup Gambling Podcast .
FIFA World Cup 2026 / Outright Picks
The Top Tier
Spain +450
Spain arrive at the 2026 World Cup as bookies favorites. Los Roja are the reigning European champions and the world’s No. 2‑ranked side. Their group draw looks extremely kind, almost a penalty kick, although the path beyond that becomes much more complicated. From the quarter‑finals onward they could face a run of European opponents. Portugal, Belgium and France all potentially sit in their half of the bracket.
In midfield, Spain remain beautifully balanced. Rodri, assuming he stays fit, anchors a technically gifted trio with Gavi and Pedri, while Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams provide pace and creativity on the wings. However, the lack of a true striker still lingers as a concern. I am not as high on Mikel Oyarzabal as others, and that missing focal point could matter in tight knockout games.
Overall, there is very little to criticise. Spain fully justify their position near the top of the market, although they are not my outright pick
France 5/1
France come into the tournament at 5/1 and they look every bit like a side built to win it. They were runners‑up in 2022 and they arrive as FIFA’s No. 1‑ranked team, which reflects both their depth and their consistency. The core of the squad is sacttered with players from PSG, the UEFA Champions League winners. That level of pedigree runs right through the group.
With Kylian Mbappé leading the attack and Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé offering pace and creativity from wide areas, France have the firepower to trouble anyone. Their midfield options give Didier Deschamps real balance, and the defensive depth allows him to adjust his shape depending on the opponent. As a result, they feel like one of the most complete teams in the field.
Group I has nominally a couple of tricky opponents so Les Bleus will need to be switched on from Matchday 1. Given their blend of talent, experience and flexibility, France fully justify their position among the favourites. They look capable of going all the way.
England +650
England are simply too short in the market for me to bet as an outright pick. Harry Kane stands out as the clear world‑class presence, but when you hold them player for player against Spain and France, the gap becomes obvious. Saka, Rogers and Watkins are lively options, yet they do not shift the needle in the same way that Yamal or Dembélé do for their nations.
There is, however, a possibility that Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson form a strong partnership in the holding midfield roles. If they click, England could build a solid base that makes them difficult to beat. At the back, Marc Guéhi, Reece James and Nico O’Reilly offer promise, while Tino Livramento adds youthful energy. The ceiling is high for the future, but depth remains a concern and, right now, the defence does not look truly world‑class.
Manager Thomas Tuchel also leaves me unconvinced. His approach feels cautious and uninspiring. Recent results, losses to Senegal and Japan, plus a draw with Uruguay, have done little to ease doubts. The route to the last 16 looks manageable, but as expected, it becomes complicated from there. Keep up to date with Three Lions progress, and all the tournament results and standings
The Contenders
Brazil 8/1
Brazil are priced at 8/1, and that feels too short given the number of holes in their setup. Their best hope lies at the front end of the pitch, where they might simply score enough goals to keep pace with anyone. The question is whether Neymar can still deliver at this level, and how much support he’ll get from Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha and Mateus Cunha.
However, it may end up being a case of trying to keep up rather than control games. I love Bruno Guimarães, he scored in the recent 2‑1 win over Egypt, but a midfield pairing of him and Casemiro doesn’t look strong enough to sustain a deep World Cup run. The full‑backs are another worry, and defensively there are clear vulnerabilities.
The presence of Carlo Ancelotti does offer hope. His influence brings a more European, structured style, less reliant on flair and improvisation. Even so, every stage of Brazil’s route looks demanding: Morocco in the group, Japan if they top it, and the Netherlands if they don’t. It all feels like hard work, and for me, it’s a hard pass.
Portugal 9/1
Portugal come in as FIFA’s No. 5‑ranked side, and that standing is built almost entirely on their midfield. Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Rúben Dias and João Neves give them a core that can compete with anyone. Two of those players have just lifted a second Champions League title. There is also plenty of quality in the attacking areas, with Rafa Leão, Pedro Neto and Nuno Mendes all offering real threat and athleticism.
Then there is Cristiano Ronaldo. At 41, with clear question marks around his age and club form, he becomes part of the handicap rather than the solution. His presence could easily disrupt the balance of a team that already has enough attacking talent without needing to revolve around him.
A major part of my hesitation, though, is the coach. I simply do not rate Roberto Martínez. His track record at major tournaments is weak, and his spell with Belgium in 2022, when they were ranked No. 2 in the world, ended in a group‑stage disaster. On top of that, there’s a very possible scenario which sees them bump into Spain in the round of 16. It does not inspire confidence.
With all of that in mind, Portugal have excellent players but too many structural doubts.
Argentina 9/1
Argentina are priced at 9/1 as the reigning world champions, and they probably shouldn’t be any longer than Brazil. Lionel Messi remains central to everything they do, even at 38, and while he continues to look sharp in MLS, the demands there are minimal compared with what awaits him in this tournament.
Up front, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez give Argentina genuine top‑tier quality. They can score and press, and together they make Scaloni’s side dangerous in transition. The midfield, though, raises questions. Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister are solid Premier League performers, yet both have just come off seasons where their presence did little to lift their clubs. Behind them, Emiliano Martínez remains a reliable goalkeeper, but the defence is ageing and lacks the mobility of the elite European sides.
The group stage doesn’t intimidate, and the route through the knockouts actually looks kind, form suggests Uruguay in the second round, which is manageable. Argentina can go well, but for me, there are stronger outright options elsewhere
Germany 14/1
Germany are listed at 14/1, but for me they look more like 20/1 shots. The history is there, four World Cup wins, yet the recent record tells a different story, with group‑stage exits in the last two tournaments. That inconsistency makes it hard to trust them as genuine contenders.
The key players are either just below elite level or carry question marks. Kai Havertz and Nick Woltemade offer flashes of quality but not the cutting edge of top‑tier forwards. At the back, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck and Antonio Rüdiger are solid but not flawless. Florian Wirtz hasn’t quite hit his best form and Jamal Musiala is returning from injury. Losing Lennart Karl to injury only adds to the uncertainty.
The group draw is tough as well. Ivory Coast and Ecuador will both be difficult to beat, and if Germany fail to win the group, their route quickly becomes complicated. Overall, they have pedigree but too many doubts to justify the price.
Tier 3
Let’s start by clearing up Norway. The Norwegians are comfortably the worst 25/1 shot on the board. They belong in the same tier as Canada and Austria, a mid‑to‑lower‑half Premier League‑style side with one elite goalscorer and not much else. I’ve got them finishing bottom of their group with a single point, following a 1‑1 draw against Iraq.
The Netherlands at 20/1 feel correctly priced. They have enough quality to be competitive, with van Dijk, de Jong and Depay forming the spine, but recent form doesn’t inspire confidence. They failed to beat Poland home or away in qualifying, haven’t beaten Italy or Bosnia lately, drew with Ecuador in March and lost to Algeria last week. A quarter‑final against France looks like the likely ceiling.
Belgium, at 33/1, appeal more. They look a balanced unit, the tail end of the Golden Generation mixed with emerging talent. And they keep winning and scoring!, which are good habits. Their draw is friendly enough, with Egypt, Iran and New Zealand offering a clear route to the knockouts. I’ve got them facing Cape Verde and then the USA, so a quarter‑final run is realistic.
Colombia, also 33/1, are the most interesting of the bunch. They reached the 2024 Copa América final and finished third in South American qualifying, trending upward under Néstor Lorenzo. Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez are the stars, while Daniel Muñoz and Luis Suárez add underrated quality. The group is tough, but they could push Portugal close, and a route through Panama and Switzerland makes a quarter‑final possible. At 6/1 to be top South American team, they’re part of a tight three‑horse race and worth serious consideration
Dark Horses and Honourable Mentions
Japan are 50/1 and have been hard to pin down. I’ve gone back and forth on them, leaving them out of most bets, but they deserve credit for their depth. The injury to Mitoma was a blow, yet they’ve proved they can cope, beating England, Scotland and Brazil along the way. There’s not much to fault; the “Project 2050” vision is working, and they look very good. I’m just not betting them.
Senegal, at 125/1, remain one of my favourite long shots. The price is inflated by a tough group featuring France and Norway, but with Norway written off, there’s room for optimism. Mané, Koulibaly, Mendy, Gueye, Ndiaye and Ismaïla Sarr form a powerful core, and the memory of that win over England last year still lingers. I have them reaching at least the last 16, and from there, anything can happen. At 125/1, it’s a gigantic price.
Ecuador at 100/1 are another side that quietly impress. They rarely lose, just two defeats in 18 qualifiers and only five goals conceded. With Caicedo, Pacho, Hincapié, Estupiñán and teenage star Kendry Páez, they have the balance and energy to surprise. If they get a kind draw, a quarter‑final run at around 5/1 looks entirely possible.
World Cup Outright Picks
France are my idea of the winner. 5/1 is a fair price. Further down the board, Colombia, of the South American teams particularly, catch my eye. They can reach a Quarter-Final at +250, and are worth a look to be top continental finisher at 6/1.
I’ve had a small interest in Senegal each way at 125/1. 7/1 to reach a Quarter-Final appeals, as does Top African team at +350.
