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Our preview series moves on with analysis of World Cup Group I. This Group has stars. Kyllian Mbappe, Desire Doue, Erling Haaland, Sadio Mane and Aymen Hussein can all light up this section. The place for all of your tournament coverage is the World Cup Gambling Podcast . With the tournament racing towards us at a pace, let’s continue with a look at the contenders.
FIFA World Cup 2026 | Group I Analysis and Best Bets
World Cup Group I : France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
Location: New York/New Jersey, Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto
June 16 France vs Senegal
June 16 Iraq vs Norway
June 22 France vs Iraq
June 22 Norway vs Senegal
June 26 Norway vs France
June 26 Senegal vs Iraq
World Cup Group I feels like one of the most balanced sections of the tournament. It has a blend of pedigree, power, and, in addition, unpredictability. France bring their trademark depth and tournament experience. Norway add youthful energy and a direct attacking edge. Senegal carry pace and physicality that can unsettle anyone, while Iraq arrive as disciplined outsiders capable of frustrating bigger names. With fixtures spread across New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Toronto, this group promises contrasting styles and atmospheres. From France’s finesse to Senegal’s intensity it’s a quietly fascinating pool where every point could reshape the knockout picture. You can keep up with all of the results and standings here.
France 5/1, To Win Group -250, Q -2500 No 12/1
France arrive in Group I as the tournament’s headline act, and it’s not hard to see why. Didier Deschamps named his squad back in May and it’s absolutely stacked. Les Bleus are a group littered with world‑class talent in every department. France breezed through qualification unbeaten, topping UEFA Group D with five wins and a draw, and as FIFA’s No. 1‑ranked side they look primed for another deep run. This is a team that already knows how to win on the biggest stage, lifting the trophy in 1998 and 2018 and coming within a penalty shootout of retaining it in Qatar in 2022.
Kylian Mbappé captains the side and leads a frightening front line, supported by the creativity and pace of Michael Olise as well as Ousmane Dembélé. Desire Doue in behind is a joy to watch. Deschamps has leaned more towards a 4‑3‑3 in 2026, with Mbappé operating centrally, but the squad is flexible enough to switch shape without losing any of its threat. There were a couple of surprises in the final list: Jean‑Philippe Mateta earned a recall after scoring twice in qualifying and firing Crystal Palace to UEFA Conference League glory, while Robin Risser was rewarded for a breakout season in Ligue 1 with a spot as the third goalkeeper. The biggest shock was Eduardo Camavinga missing out entirely.
France have elite depth coupled with the best player in the world leading the line, and a manager who has mastered tournament football. As a result of that France enter this group, and the competition as a whole, as one of the clearest contenders. They expect to go deep, and moreover everyone else expects it too. At 5/1 they are my idea of the winner.
Norway 25/1, To Win Group +275, Q -500 No +333
Senegal 125/1, To Win Group 8/1, Q -200 No +150
Senegal head into the 2026 World Cup with confidence and pedigree, having topped their CAF qualifying group ahead of DR Congo and Mauritania. Under head coach Pape Thiaw, the Lions of Teranga look powerful and experienced, a side capable of springing a surprise at odds of 125‑1.
Ranked 14th by FIFA, The Lions of Teranga are again built around the spine of Sadio Mané, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Édouard Mendy, with Idrissa Gana Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye, who add balance and creativity. Gueye’s defensive discipline and Ndiaye’s flair between the lines give Senegal a strong core. Add to that their wide threats and physicality which make them dangerous in transition. They open against France in New Jersey. That’s a fixture that evokes memories of their famous 1‑0 win over Les Bleus in 2002, before facing Norway and Iraq. Yet with the expanded format allowing third‑place teams to progress, Senegal can afford to be pragmatic early and target Iraq in their final match.
Their recent AFCON final against Morocco may have ended in controversy. However, their talent together with their unity remain unquestioned. A 3‑1 win over England at Nottingham Forest’s City Ground last summer underlined their quality. Thiaw’s preferred 4‑3‑3 or 4‑2‑3‑1 system maximises their athleticism and organisation, and with form, experience, and belief on their side, Senegal look ready to push beyond the group stage and perhaps claim another major scalp along the way.
I much prefer Senegal to Norway in this section, they can fill one of the top 2 places.
Iraq 1500/1, To Win Group 40/1, Q 3/1 No -500
Iraq return to the world stage for the 2026 World Cup. The men from Mesopotamia are making only their second appearance after 1986. This is a remarkable achievement which was earned the hard way. Drawn into one of the tournament’s toughest groups alongside France, Norway, and Senegal, they sealed qualification with a gritty 2–1 playoff win over Bolivia in Monterrey.
Under former Socceroos boss Graham Arnold, Iraq’s squad blends experience and youth, led by captain Jalal Hassan and striker Mohanad Ali. Aymen Hussein adds further firepower after finishing top scorer in qualifying. Their average age of 26.5 reflects a side full of energy and ambition, though they’ll need every ounce of discipline against elite opposition. Arnold’s tactical setup typically shifts between a 4‑2‑3‑1 and 4‑4‑2, morphing into a 5‑4‑1 out of possession to stay compact and frustrate. Likewise, expect low‑possession football, narrow defensive blocks, and a focus on counter‑attacks . Maintaining composure will also be vital after five red cards in 14 games. This is a major step up in class compared to their Arab Cup and qualifying opponents, but Iraq’s resilience, not to mention spirit, makes them a compelling underdog story. If they can keep their shape and stay disciplined, they might just turn a few heads in Group I.
World Cup Group I Picks
Senegal are well worth taking a chance on to repeat the shock of 2002 and beat France on Matchday 1. Senegal at +550 is a decent saver at small stakes to catch the French cold.
Take into consideration their performance back in June 2025 against the Three Lions, when they comprehensively outplayed England to win 3–1. That was eye‑catching, and their AFCON exploits are well highlighted too. At 125‑1 each way, they are the pick and it could be a wild ride with Sadio Mané causing chaos up front.
It’s important to thrown in the odd hot take here and there. To that end I’m putting Norway into a full fade. Take them to miss out on qualification.
France/Senegal Forecast +275
Norway not to qualify +333
Senegal to qualify -200
Aymen Hussein Top Iraq Scorer 5/1
