We’re only a few sleeps away from the biggest day on the yearly gambling calendar – the Super Bowl! This year, the 14-3 New England Patriots of the AFC and the 14-3 Seattle Seahawks of the NFC will lock horns in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. While the Seahawks are a slight favorite on the spread, we aren’t concerned with just those odds. Instead, we’re going to dive into some Super Bowl LX betting trends and find some winning plays via that method. Let’s go get this money!
Super Bowl LX Betting Trends & Best Bets
#1 Seattle Seahawks vs #2 New England Patriots
Start Time: Sunday, Feb 8th – 6:30 PM EST
Trend #1: Score First & Win The Game
Getting on the board early is important in any game, but it is especially so historically in the Super Bowl. The first team to score in the Super Bowl has won 38 of the 59 Super Bowl games played, a 64% clip. And it’s been the path to victory in nine of the past 14 Super Bowls played.
This is good news for the New England Patriots and their fans, as the Pats have been prolific in the first quarter this season. New England averaged a league-best 16.5 first-half points this year and was deadly against the spread in first halves.
Best Bet: New England Patriots First to Score + Patriots Win Game (+325)
Trend #2: The “Home Team” Wins
With the San Francisco 49ers falling to the Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Round of this year’s playoffs, we won’t have a true home team in this year’s Super Bowl in Levi’s Stadium. However, the “de facto” home team still has a historic advantage in the big game.
The team that has had the shortest distance to travel to the Super Bowl site has won seven of the last 10 Super Bowl games. That’s a pretty huge statistical advantage. Seattle’s Lumen Field is 824 miles from Levi’s Stadium; New England’s Gillette Stadium is 3,120 miles away. That’s a big advantage to the Seahawks.
Best Bet: Seattle ML (-212)
Trend #3: Cover The Conference Championship Spread…Or else
Or else what, you ask? Or else you’re going to lose the Super Bowl. Teams that have failed to cover the spread in their respective conference championship games have only won four of the past 14 Super Bowls. And, if they did manage to win the Lombardi Trophy, they more than likely didn’t cover the spread in the game – failure to cover the conference championshipgame spread carried over to a 2-11-1 record against the spread in the Super Bowl.
In this year’s NFC Championship Game, the Seattle Seahawks were favored by 2.5 points over the Los Angeles Rams. The Seahawks won 31-27. So they’re off the hook. As for the New England Patriots, they were favored by 3.5 points over the hobbled Denver Broncos and won 10-7. That means they didn’t cover. Which means they won’t cover in the Super Bowl, either.
Best Bet: Seattle -4.5 (-103)
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