The 2025 Belmont Stakes is the 157th running of this leg of the Triple Crown. For the second year, the event is to be run at Saratoga racetrack rather than its traditional home of Belmont Park in New York. You need the predictions, analysis, and picks to win big as the Belmont Stakes rolls around, and the only picks you need to trust are from SGPN.
Belmont Stakes 2025: Predictions, Analysis, and Picks
When: Saturday, June 7, 2025
Time: 650 EST (Race 13)
How to Watch: Fox Sports 2
With a purse of $2 million, leg 3 of the Triple Crown is one for the purist. The first three finishers in the Kentucky Derby reoppose here, two of them having won the Derby and Preakness Stakes respectively. With a sprinkle of fresh challengers in the field too, this renewal looks a beauty. It’s worth noting that the race will be run over 10 furlongs rather than 12 due to the shorter dirt track at Saratoga.
The Contenders
1 – Hill Road 10/1
Hill Road will be ridden by Irad Ortiz after previous jockey Flavien Prat has defected to Baeza. This in itself is an indicator of the chances of the Chad Brown trained inmate. He has some decent form, 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and winning the Peter Pan Stakes. I’m not sure about the level of the opposition that Hill Road has beaten, and I’ll be looking elsewhere for a selection.
2 – Sovereignty 8/5
The Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty just heads the market for the Belmont Stakes. His performance in the Derby was no fluke, running down the leaders on a sloppy track to take the Roses. Sovereignty bypassed the Preakness Stakes in order to come here fresh and has run well off a small break in the past. I see that as a positive. Saratoga isn’t always the kindest to closers, and there may not be a red hot pace for him to aim at.
3 – Rodriguez 6/1
Bob Baffert trains this one. Rodriguez has good form against top challenger Baeza. He should be one of those going to the front early, as he did in his Wood Memorial win. Tactics that day favoured him. He comes here on a fresh horse and is definitely a potential improver. The horse is returning from a bruised foot injury and will have to prove that it won’t hold him back.
4 – Uncaged 30/1
Todd Pletcher trains. Uncaged is the unfancied runner of the field, and I can’t really make a case for him. He ran down the field in the Peter Pan Stakes, and will be parked out the back here. That tactic is unlikely to help. As a result of that, he’s not for me.
5 – Crudo 15/1
A second Pletcher runner. Crudo was visually impressive, winning the Sir Barton Stakes going wire to wire on the Preakness undercard. He stayed on really strongly and it was hard not to be impressed. Alongside Rodriguez, he’ll be up with the early pace, yet as a potential improver if he’s good enough, might take some catching.
6 – Baeza 7/2
Baeza has shown steady improvement, from a Santa Anita Maiden win to running Journalism close in the Santa Anita Derby. There wasn’t much wrong with his 3rd place Derby finish either. He didn’t get too much luck in running that day. The horse has sneaky tactical speed. He will get a tow into the race from Crudo drawn just to the inside of him. A late foal, Baeza is still coming into himself and with under a length to find with the favourites, I think he has a big chance.
7 – Journalism 9/5
His Preakness Stakes win was truly memorable. Halfway down the stretch and knocked sideways, Journalism grew wings to run down Gosger in the shadow of the winning post. He’s the only horse to be running in all three legs of the Triple Crown. That’s quite a tough ask, but he looks quite a tough horse. Connections have not brought him here without considering that decision strongly. He’ll be there or thereabouts at the business end. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dG-kpPOhUhE
8 – Heart of Honour 20/1
British father/daughter team Jamie and Saffie Osborne bring this one to Saratoga. The horse ran 5th in the Preakness, but was a fairly distant 5th. However, there’s not much evidence to suggest that he can get closer. He had previously run 2nd in the UAE Derby. The form of that race hasn’t worked out in the US Triple Crown.
Selections
The Top 3 in the market do look a cut above the others. Whilst it may be fun to look for fancy-priced longshots, sometimes the chalk is worth eating. Looking at picks, analysis, and considering the field, I have just the picks you need to win big and take on corporate gambling at the Belmont Stakes this weekend.
Winner
6 – Baeza – I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him. He can park up closer to the front here than he did in the Derby. With fewer traffic concerns and tow into the race, he might just have enough improvement to be in front at the wire.
Exacta
6-2. Sovereignty can be the one to chase home Baeza. The slight rest advantage that he has over Journalism is what tips the balance towards him
Trifecta
6-2-7 It’s hard to ignore Journalism. He’ll give his best, but that Preakness effort may just have taken the edge off him.
6-2-5 Of the more expensive horses, Crudo caught the eye when winning on the Preakness Card. If there’s any shenanigans behind the bird, it might have flown.
Good Luck and Let it Ride!
