2025 NCAA March Madness First Four Best Bets & Predictions
The stage is set in Dayton, Ohio, as March Madness continues with a thrilling First Four doubleheader. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers will face off against the American University Eagles in a battle of Northeast Conference and Patriot League champions, respectively. Later that evening, the Xavier Musketeers will clash with the Texas Longhorns in a matchup that promises to be a classic.
(16) Mount St. Mary’s vs (16) American (-2.5)
Credit to both of these teams for making it to the dance but whoever advances, has to play one of the most complete teams in the tournament. The Duke Blue Devils. The Mountaineers are back in the First Four game from their last appearance in 2021. While the Eagles are making their first trip back to the dance since 2014 with an impressive win over Navy in the Patriot League championship. Let’s see who can advance into Friday afternoon.
I like American in this matchup. I made the Eagles, -4.5-point favorite, so getting an extra position could help us out. The experience and leadership with the Eagles seniors from forward, Matt Rodgers could put them over the edge. It should be a slow-paced game as the Eagles don’t like to push the pace. American is going to make the Mountaineers play their style of basketball.
Best Bet: American -2.5
(11) Xavier (-3.5) vs (11) Texas
This matchup between the Musketeers and the Longhorns is by far my favorite matchup in the first four games. The winner of this matchup secures the No. 11 seed in the Midwest and will move on to play No. 6 seed Illinois on Friday. These teams have met twice in the NCAA Tournament. Texas won 83-71 on March 24, 2023, and four years earlier to the day the Longhorns also defeated Xavier. They won in overtime, 78-76, on March 24, 2019.
One factor that some might not take in is that this will be a home game for the Musketeers. I think the fans will travel well for them and watching this Texas team all year, they are just not the same team away from home. Both teams shoot the ball well from three but neither relies on it exclusively. Texas averaged 14 points fewer away from home on the year. But what I really like about Xavier is that they don’t allow second chance opportunities. On the year, the Musketeers are allowing their opponent just 23.5% of their misses for an offensive rebound, that’s top 25 in the country.
Best Bet: Xavier -3.5
