A Decade of Shifts: How the AFC Division Champions Have Evolved

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Preview and PredictionsNFL tends to go in cycles, where dynasties rise and fall. Within the American Football Conference (AFC), 16 teams go at it across four divisions, yet it often feels as if it’s the same few teams that rise to the top. But is this really the case?

Consistent Dominance in the AFC

Over the past decade, The New England Patriots are what comes to mind when looking at 21st-century dominance. They’ve displayed remarkable consistency in the AFC East for much of the 2010s in particular, and their sustained success was not by chance. A strong and effective offense, an adaptable defense, and the leadership of coach Bill Belichick are the three pillars.

Thanks to a strong run in the 70s, though, Pittsburgh Steelers are perhaps considered the old-money dominance, with four Super Bowls in the 70s, and two in the past two decades.

And finally, it’s difficult to talk about dominance without focusing on the Kansas City Chiefs, who are winning the AFC West year after year in recent memory. They’ve built upon an explosive offense, which has been orchestrated by quarterback Patrick Mahomes for quite some time.

However, despite there being some examples of consistent winners, it’s clear that those who sportsbooks on BetUS prefer betting on the underdog. Not just because of the better odds, but something about the inherent cyclical nature of the AFC… It’s not like we’re going to forget about the Denver Broncos 2011 playoff run or the Jacksonville Jaguars reaching the Championship game eight years ago, are we?

The New Contenders

Fortunately or unfortunately (depending on who you support), the AFC has seen a wave of new contenders. Teams that once struggled have learned how to climb up and compete. The Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC North in 2021 and 2022 after a long dry period. It was fueled by a blend of key draft picks (like quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase) and strategic free-agent acquisitions. 

This kind of strategy is now being exploited by underdogs, and the Buffalo Bills are yet another example over in the AFC East. Having a reliable and leading quarterback has proven yet again as the source of competing with the best. When new contenders rise, it’s always down to good drafting and solid coaching.

Impact of Leadership Changes

The fate of AFC teams generally lay in the hands of coaching changes; good or bad. A fresh voice is often what’s needed to invigorate a franchise, bringing not just new ideas but a new wind of energy. When Sean McDermott came to Buffalo, the Bills became a real contender. Before, they were relatively mediocre for many years, but McDermott changed things by helping players improve. Losing a good head coach can be tough, too, leaving a team without a plan or an authoritative voice. When looking at the AFC cycles, we can often view it by the coaches’ footprints.

Player Moves

Whether it’s trades or free agency, player movement is of course what ruffles up the AFC, and there’s no doubt these springboard some teams to division titles. The Denver Broncos clinched Super Bowl 50. How? They got some powerful defensive players in no time at all. Yet, you can take a nosedive if you lose an important player, which is exactly what happened to them when Peyton Manning left shortly after.

A popular problem we often notice is when star quarterbacks or defensive players leave after a long time. This can shake up the whole team’s harmony. We saw it happen with Peyton Manning (again) and the Indianapolis Colts. When Andrew Luck came in place of Peyton, there was a talent, yet, the team didn’t feel balanced. This change marked the end of an era for the Colts.

Adapting to Change

While losing a player disrupts things, change is inevitable – no matter the sport. In order to maintain success, change must be on the coach’s terms as much as possible, and to be proactive in this foresight. Not just with losing personnel, but with tactics and strategies.

One changing tactic that is reshaping AFC playstyles is the use of pre-snap motion and misdirection. It’s been popularized by the Kansas City Chiefs and the strategy confuses defenses. The goal here is to make the most of mismatches but also to spark more chances.

These new inventive tactics typically come from younger coaches with fresh ideas. Not always, but when it does, it explains why the AFC is so cyclical – because it rewards them. It’s what makes winning for more than just three or so years so hard – there is always more footage of the dominating team’s playstyle than of the up-and-coming challenger. This helps level the playing field, particularly during a time when analysis is so important in adopting unconventional strategies – and it is what keeps the fans, and bettors, perpetually engaged.

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