The Clemson Tigers snuck into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth and now have to take on the Texas Longhorns. Texas came out and took the Georgia Bulldogs to overtime before falling in overtime. Longhorns vs Tigers may be an all-time battle of oranges. We take a look at this Clemson vs Texas game and who will advance in the College Football Playoff.
College Football Playoff: Clemson at Texas Preview and Predictions
Clemson @ Texas (-11.5)
December 21st
4:00 PM
TNT
The biggest point spread of the playoff weekend is in Austin, Texas. Is this warranted, given how Texas looked in the SEC championship? Or does Clemson’s near collapse contribute to this number? Personally, I believe it is a combination of both, along with the home-field advantage.
Klubnik returns to his home state for a rematch of the 2021 6A Texas State Championship, which featured the same quarterback battle. In that game, Klubnik came out on top, so Ewers is seeking some redemption.
This will be the Tigers’ most hostile environment, and they’ll need Klubnik to play like he did in the state title game. On the other hand, Ewers has to be better, or he’ll likely be on a short leash in a critical game.
We will examine both perspectives and see if we can help you make the right decision. As always, shop for the best number, as some of these markets vary vastly from book to book.
How Does Texas Win?
If we know anything about this Texas team, its defense is as consistent as it gets. They are excellent at every level, but they are most dominant up front. This is important because if you look at Clemson’s two losses, they both have something in common—great defensive fronts. In two games against those fronts, Clemson scored a combined 17 points and was not overly efficient on offense.
Texas has the defense to disrupt Clemson’s offense, just like Georgia and South Carolina. I have no worries about the defense coming to play, BUT what I do have worries about is Sark and Ewers. The offense seems to be less efficient in the red zone, and Ewers has issues putting the ball in harm’s way.
Running the ball—something they have not done well in certain spots—can help. In their two losses, they rushed for 60 yards on 58 carries. Clemson can be had on the ground, but they are outside the top 100 in EPA per rush allowed.
Establishing the run early and often will open up the play-action game, which Ewers is great at. The defense will show up, but in order for Texas to advance, Ewers and Sark need to be elite in these spots. In the regular season, they averaged over 40 points per game, and only one team scored more than two touchdowns on this defense.
How does Clemson Win?
Since 2008, this is only the third time Clemson has been an underdog of 10 or more points. One of those three happened this year when Georgia throttled them. There are a few ways I believe they can prevent another beat down, and it all starts with their quarterback.
This is the best defense Clemson has faced this year by far. He did not record a touchdown in either of the two losses and threw for under 150 yards against Georgia. He did play better in their second loss, but it was on a high volume of attempts. In this matchup, it’s critical that he is efficient and on schedule.
Against SMU, the offense recorded under four yards per play and allowed a 54% rush success rate against South Carolina. Texas has struggled to run the ball consistently, so it’s vital they make that offense one-dimensional and force Ewers to beat them.
The offense starts and ends with Klubnik, and he has to play at an elite level for them to pull this upset off. That starts with staying ahead of the chains, protecting the ball, and using his legs. The running game has been nonexistent, and they can’t afford to be one-dimensional against this elite defense. Mafah has not been good over the last month, so Klubnik’s legs have to be huge in the game plan.
TEXAS LONGHORNS -11
I like Texas to not only win but also cover. This will be an incredible scene, and with extra time to prepare, I favor Sark over Dabo. I understand this is a huge number, but it’s nothing new for Texas. They were favored by double digits nine times this year and were 5-4 against the spread. I know it doesn’t seem impressive, but let’s dig a little deeper.
In those nine games, the average spread was around 26, and if they had been laying this number, they would have covered seven of those nine. In-home or neutral games, they were 4-2 against the spread when laying double digits and won by an average of 35 points. If you filter out the four schools that are not powered by power, the average margin of victory is around 25.
So, this is not something Texas is not accustomed to. I think their defense sets the tone and dominates the Clemson offense, which is the worst of the four units that will take the field. Limiting Klubnik’s legs will be key as well as Ewers playing at the top of his game. However, another reason I’m confident in laying this number is that I expect to see a lot of Arch Manning.
Clemson has had its struggles with mobile quarterbacks. Sellers, Reed, and Jennings all had success against this Clemson rush defense. Regardless of whether Ewers is playing well or not, Arch should have several packages to exploit that defense as well as help in the red zone, where Sark has struggled to produce historically. I’m expecting to see one of the best offensive outputs thus far for Texas, and once Clemson is down double digits early, the defense puts it away – Texas 38, Clemson 17
CADE KLUBNIK OVER 40 YARDS
As mentioned earlier, the Texas rush defense is elite. I’m not expecting a lot from Mafah, but Klubnik could see a higher volume or more rush attempts. He has gone over this number in ten of the thirteen games and has ten or more rush attempts in five of the last six.
In the more meaningful games, Klubnik relied more on his legs, leading them to an ACC title and playoff berth. Running backs generally struggle against this Texas front, but dual-threat quarterbacks have had success. They have not faced a lot, but when they did, those quarterbacks went over this specific number.
We should see a heavy dose of Klubnik’s legs not only on scrambles but also on designed runs. That will help them slow down that pass rush a bit and open up some play-action passes over the middle. The game script is in our favor as well, so if Clemson gets down early, Klubnik will drop back more than usual. I have him at closer to 40 yards on about 13 carries – so find a ladder and climb it.
